The scream of a scorched outside worker in the rising heat

More asphalt-melting heatwaves driven by runaway climate change are on the way. The consequences for health and livelihoods are disastrous, as one-third of South Asia’s population is dependent on outside work. To deal with this situation, India should introduce a safety net – a combination of targeted transfers and insurance schemes – to improve the resilience of outside workers. Relocation is best linked to the beneficiaries’ own efforts to build resilience, for example, by adopting agricultural practices for increased heat waves. Disaster insurance schemes, which are few in India, enable workers to transfer some of the losses from debilitating heat to public and private insurance providers.

A Warm Future in South Asia

The intensity and frequency of heatwaves in South Asia has increased and they are likely to get worse in the coming years. Not only in the northern states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and New Delhi, but now also in the south, extreme heat conditions have affected many parts of India. Following the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) April forecast, the maximum temperature will increase by 2 degree-3 degree Celsius in parts of Tamil Nadu, with Vellore, Karur, Tiruchi and Tiruttani recording 41 degrees Celsius. Delhi faced the second warmest April in 72 years this month, with an average temperature of 40.2 degrees Celsius and Gurgaon in neighboring Haryana crossing 45 degrees Celsius for the first time. Labor-intensive agriculture and construction has become nearly impossible at noon.

Over the past 100 years, global temperatures have increased by 1.5 °C and, at the current rate, could reach 4 °C by 2100 – an unimaginable scenario. So far in the year, 2022 has been the fifth warmest year on record. The prevalence of extreme temperatures across the globe suggests that India’s warming is not only a result of local factors but also a consequence of global warming. In fact, scientists have clarified how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increase the temperature in the oceans, raising temperatures. The culprit in the current plight from intense weather is not Mother Nature but anthropogenic GHG emissions. Crucially, heatwaves and wildfires are ‘unthinkable’ without human-caused climate change, according to a study by World Weather Attribution in July 2021.

high economic loss

The effects are terrifying around the world. Heatwaves are proving to be Europe’s deadliest climate disaster. India is facing the biggest heat exposure impacts in South Asia. A study found that 1,41,308 people lost their lives due to intense weather in India during 1971-2019, of which 17,362 people died due to extreme heat, an increase of two-thirds in the death rate during the time period Hui. If global warming exceeds 2 °C, the worldwide economic loss could, according to one estimate, reach US$1.6 trillion (₹1.6 lakh crore) annually. India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, where large numbers of people work outside, are most vulnerable.

India’s outdoor workers, under daily temperatures in excess of 40°C, are on the front lines of climate catastrophe. The well-being of outdoor workers will basically be determined by their ability to keep the temperature rise below 2 °C. Climate change is predicted to reverse on major emitters, including India, with carbon emitters moving away from fossil fuels, and replacing them with clean, renewable fuels. But the pace of such climate mitigation has been slow in India and elsewhere, as the major emitters lack the political will to take decisive action.

Customization Required

Meanwhile, hot temperatures are making outdoor work unbearable, among other dire consequences. Climate mitigation or decarbonization of economies remains an imperative, especially on the part of large emitters such as the United States, European Union, China and India. But based on emissions damage already done, temperatures are set to rise regardless of mitigation. This means climate adaptation, or tackling the plight, is as much a priority as mitigation.

An important aspect of adaptation is better environmental care that can contribute to cooling. Heatwaves are rooted in poor land and continued deforestation, which exacerbates wildfires. Agriculture does not do well in heat wave areas due to the abundance of water. One solution is to promote better agricultural practices that are not water-intensive, and to support afforestation that has a beneficial effect on warming.

The reaction of external workers to the current plight can be linked to climate adaptation. Financial transfers could be targeted at helping farmers plant trees and buy better equipment for extreme weather. For example, support for drip irrigation can reduce heavy water use. Destroying agriculture and avoiding burning and stubble burning is important not only to reduce air pollution but also to cool temperatures. Urban green such as street trees, urban forests and green roofs can help cool urban areas. Workers in cities and villages can benefit from early warning systems and better preparedness as well as community outreach programs during an episode.

support for insurance

Insurance schemes can help transfer to insurers some of the risks of extreme heat faced by industrial, construction and agricultural workers. Insurance against natural hazards is minimal not only in India but also in Asia where less than 10% of losses are usually covered. The government and insurance companies need to cooperate in providing greater coverage for damages caused by extreme weather events, including disasters caused by extreme heat.

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For greater effectiveness, relocation and insurance payments can be linked to investments in resilience made locally, such as restoring urban environments that have a cooling effect. Delhi’s Aravalli Biodiversity Park is a unique example of transforming a barren landscape into greenery and forest communities protecting biodiversity. Transfers can also be combined with mapping heatwave events at different locations. The most severely affected areas are also likely to be the most poverty-prone and require stronger insurance packages, including crop loss guarantees. Incentive plans can also be tailored to account for annual changes in risk intensity.

Studies warn of heat-stress inequalities where poorer sections of the population are particularly affected by heat waves. The IMD’s projections can guide future scenarios that the central government can use to develop subsidies and insurance schemes linked to state and district-level actions to build resilience to climate change. Insurance plans require the public and private sectors to jointly set up risk-sharing mechanisms that outside workers can take advantage of.

Targeted transfer and insurance schemes can ease financial difficulties, for example, by improving crop resilience to heat waves. Making them part of government economic programs is one way to make these safety net policies sustainable and difficult to reverse, as international experience with cash transfer programs shows.

priority

India offers a range of food and fuel subsidies, but most of them are poorly targeted. For example, kerosene subsidies provide marginal financial benefits to disadvantaged rural households, with only 26% of the subsidy value estimated to reach the poor directly. As the efficiency and equity of existing subsidies are re-examined, transfers linked to building climate resilience and the provision of insurance should become a priority.

The increasing heatwaves due to climate change are further downstream of India, and the situation is expected to worsen. The workers outside are very upset due to the unseasonal heat. Linking cash transfers and insurance schemes to state and local green investments will not only provide some financial cover for outside workers, but will also spur small-scale investments in much-needed resilience to heatwaves.

Vinod Thomas and Mehtab Ahmed Jageel, respectively, visiting professor, and candidate for the Master in Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore