The Met Office’s forecast of a normal monsoon for the fourth year in a row has pleased the agriculture sector and the broader economy, not least because of the increasing accuracy of its forecasts.
In its first long-range forecast for 2022, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said it expects rainfall of 99% of the long period average (LPA) during the June-September monsoon. IMD data shows that statistical forecasts rarely achieve a 100% strike rate, but the error rate in India’s official monsoon forecasts has decreased over the past two decades.
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The state-run agency reports two forecasts each year in April and June and the figure is based on the percentage distance from the average rainfall recorded annually over the past five decades. While the forecast has an error tolerance of 5% on both sides, the average error between 2007 and 2019 was 6.3% of the LPA (1971-2020). This was an improvement over the last 13 years (1995–2006), when the mean error was 8.9% of the LPA.
In 2020 and 2021, the gap between forecast and actual rainfall narrowed to 8.8% and 1.4% of LPA, respectively.
While the forecaster has been quite successful in predicting a normal monsoon, the real challenge lies in predicting drought and excessive rainfall. Since 2001, the country has had years of low rainfall (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2015), four of which ended with drought.
In the first three years of these years, the IMD had predicted normal rainfall, over-projecting with an average error of about 18% of the LPA. In 2014 and 2015, the error was around 7%.
Out of the eight normal-monsoon years since 2001, the IMD has got it correct six times and underestimated and overpredicted once each.
The forecast of another year of normal rainfall bodes well for the country’s agricultural production, with 65% of the total cropped area being rainfed, affecting both summer and winter crops.
Over the past two decades, the GVA (Gross Value Added, or Value of Goods and Services) of agriculture and allied sectors has expanded at a healthy average of 5.2% for almost all years of normal or above-normal rainfall, indicating That mint analysis.
In all years of low rainfall, GVA in these regions shrank, except for one occasion (2015) when it remained flat. However, in 2020, when the country saw above-normal rainfall (about 109% of the LPA), the agriculture sector had an exceptional performance even amid the pandemic: GVA in these sectors grew by 3.3%, while GDP contracted 6.6%.
In 2021, a normal monsoon year, agricultural GVA increased again to 3.3%, although this year seems unlikely. As economic activity normalises, the availability of agricultural labor in various sectors may change, affecting acreage in some states, which has been a major driver of agricultural production in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
In addition, an ICRA report in March said, “Furthermore, inadequate availability of fertilizers is a cause of concern for agriculture, mainly due to limited availability and high prices in the international market. Thus, normal monsoon and healthy reservoir levels.” Even with this, the acreage and hence production may not increase significantly in FY 2013, which may reduce the growth of agricultural GVA to less than 3%.”
Also, with a 16% share in India’s output, the agricultural sector has the power to influence overall economic output. If IMD gets it right again this time, the economy will recover in 2022.