For the summer of 2023, India’s power ministry had predicted a peak electricity demand of 230 gigawatts (GW). But given an erratic and milder summer early on, the projection was not met until August, instead of the usual peak of June or July. Thanks to the driest August in 123 years, the monsoon months’ peak demand turned out to be 7.5% greater than that of the hottest summer months, a record gap in at least 15 years, a Mint analysis showed.
The highest demand this year was met at 12.22 pm on 1 September, at 240 GW, not only a historic high but also the most delayed peak since lockdown-affected 2020, according to data from the Grid Controller of India. Last year, demand had peaked at 211 GW on 16 June.
Power demand is a measure of the amount of electricity drawn at an instant, and is different from electricity consumption, which is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh), the unit seen in household power bills. One kilowatt of demand sustained for an hour leads to a consumption of 1 kWh, and one gigawatt is 1 million kWh.
Even after the dry August, India managed to dodge a drought due to the rains in September, which made it relatively cooler. This also showed in electricity use, which stood at 140 billion units, 7.8% down since August and the biggest month-on-month drop in a year. Earlier, August had seen a 5.8% jump over July. However, the heavy rain has also led to fears of coal shortage.
August impact
Despite the sharp decline in consumption last month, India ended up using 6.7% more electricity in the September quarter than the June quarter, given the strong August impact. That’s also a record, barring the lockdown years of 2020 and 2021, when the June-quarter electricity consumption was low. The increase was particularly sharp in northern and central states, while in the south, electricity use dropped as the season transitioned to monsoon rains, according to our analysis. The official southwest monsoon period is June to September, but the analysis compares two full quarters to capture similar time periods, and also because in June, the monsoon is still taking its time to cover the whole country.
Punjab and Haryana recorded the most significant surge, together using up 47 billion units of electricity (11% of all-India use) in the September quarter, up from 32 billion units in the June quarter. Sikkim, Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra had the biggest declines.
Upward trend
How much electricity do Indians use per head? The average per capita consumption during the June-September period—the official southwest monsoon season—stood at 422 kWh, up 12% year-on-year. This includes the household sector, farms as well as industries.
The per-head comparison can give more insight into regional trends. The southern and western regions, which house some of the richest state economies and industries, use the highest amount of electricity per head. The consumption of these two regions exceeded 500 kWh per head during the June-September period, up 15% and 18%, respectively, as compared to a year ago. The northern grid region recorded the smallest increase.
The southwest monsoon season this year ended with a 6% deficit over the long-period average, which is slightly below normal. However, a deficient rainfall season should not be seen as the sole reason for the increase in per-capita electricity use, since India’s power demand is growing fast—symptomatic of a fast-growing economy.
Coal woes
India generates around 70% of its electricity using thermal power plants, which are predominantly fuelled by coal. As coal maintains its dominant position in the country’s energy landscape, supply challenges have also been a recurring issue.
It is usual for the country’s coal stock to see a depletion during the monsoon season as rains disrupt mining operations. This year, due to the late monsoon rains, coal stocks significantly declined in September and have further decreased this month. The average coal stock at thermal power stations has hit a critical low for the first time this year. The total stock as of 10 October was 21.42 million tonnes, down from 26.34 million tonnes in mid-September. Coming ahead of the festive season, amid a period of fast-rising power demand, this necessitates coal stocks to be shored up soon.