The wind of your storm that swept over Punjab

The 16th assembly election in Punjab to be held in 2022 is an important election for the state, which also shows a political divergence from the past. The most notable feature is the verdict itself – a landslide after a long time. A certain percentage of the voters of Punjab have always voted for three parties – Bharatiya Jana Sangh/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress and Akali Dal.

The average vote share for the last five assembly elections for the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance has been 36.94 per cent and 39.65%, respectively. But in this election, electoral bipolarity, a feature of the political system in the state until the 2017 election, has shifted to a four-party system. Even the BJP, which finished fourth with two seats in this election, is likely to go its own way; It never benefited from an alliance especially with the Akali Dal (1997–2020), securing only 6.9% vote share in the last five assembly elections. In case of smaller parties, he never did well, contesting elections on his own. Nor has he helped his colleagues much. The Bahujan Samaj Party, this time with one seat, has secured 4.33% vote share in the last five assembly elections.

Congress’s gamble

The second notable feature has been the dismal failure of the Congress’s gambit under the leadership of Charanjit Singh Channi (after the removal of Captain Amarinder Singh) despite strong opposition from Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee President Navjot Singh Sidhu. It was a desperate but bold move by the party high command which sensed the anti-incumbency wave and was also aware of the intense internal strife within the Punjab Congress.

In electing Mr Channi, a Dalit Sikh, the party in a way violated the age-old heterogeneous social base of political power in the state, which has been in favor of the numerically strong, landlocked Jat Sikhs. Most of the chief ministers of the state are from the Sikh-majority Punjabi community since the formation of the diocese.

The Congress leadership might have noticed that Dalits, who make up 31.94% of the state’s population, would help it win. Dalits make up more than 30% of the state’s population in 55 of the state’s 117 (34 reserved) assembly constituencies. But here too, religious and caste divisions among Dalits were an obstacle in the way of mass voting in favor of Mr. Channi. Interestingly, other parties like the Akali Dal – which had promised a Dalit Deputy Chief Minister – were also looking at the Dalit vote. The rural Sikh vote also remained elusive for the Congress, largely due to the party’s failure to provide relief to the farmers. These votes did not go to the Akali Dal either. Maybe the AAP gets votes because its government in Delhi was seen to help protest farmers along the Delhi border, when they were demanding the withdrawal of agricultural laws.

The second strategy of the Congress, i.e. to blame the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh for the misgovernance/performance, found no takers. Even though attempts were made to portray the government led by Mr. Channi as a new government, the public perception was that it was essentially the same old party-government. Moreover, the Channi government had hardly any time before the election to show the results of three important issues plaguing the state: drugs, sacrilege and sand, transport, the cable mafia. The Channi government made big promises and made big announcements. The Channi government, including Navjot Singh Sidhu, spent most of its time and energy dealing with the internal challenges of the party and the allegations leveled against it by its own party leaders.

playing a melody

AAP’s surprise victory – 92 out of 117 seats – is a reminder of its victory in the 2015 Delhi elections. Its sheer scale of victory in terms of seats and vote share (42%) reflects its wide support across castes and communities. There are 39 constituencies in the state where Hindu voters constitute more than 50% of the electorate and AAP has won majority of them. Therefore, it is not only rural Sikhs who have extended support to AAP.

How does one understand a landslide? The first factor is the massive anti-incumbency wave against the Congress and the Akali Dal, two parties that have shared power in the state several times in 25 years. This has been the period when there has been a shift in the political narrative – from ethno-religious issues to better governance and development. Ironically though, the state has seen a slowdown in terms of economic growth; The first green revolution has done its job while the promise of the second green revolution has remained only on paper. The persistent failures of cash crops in the state have caused severe distress to the farmers; The self-styled ‘Kisan Party’ Akali Dal has failed to find a satisfactory solution. There are only 20 urban constituencies, the rest being highly rural. It explains the importance of farmers in the state and the issues related to them.

Main issues in the state

Small and medium scale industries that once flourished in Ludhiana and Jalandhar have shifted to power-surplus and better governed neighboring states such as Himachal Pradesh. The crisis in the agricultural sector in what is essentially a one sector economy has resulted in massive unemployment. There is also a social crisis in which synthetic drugs are ruining the youth. There have been serious allegations of complicity of politicians in sand, transport, cable, liquor and drug mafia. While the parties that came to power have promised cleanliness, in reality the situation has worsened. The famous state police force that fought militancy was compromised and politicised. Punjab today is a dim shadow of its former self, when it was considered the ‘ideal state’ in terms of governance and progress (especially during the days of Pratap Singh Kairon).

Due to all these incidents the youth has lost faith in the future of the state. There is a huge rush of youth to migrate abroad, with many taking great risks. A failing education system is also making many people unemployed when it comes to white-collar jobs. Hence, these burning social and economic issues must have influenced women voters and youth to consider voting for AAP this time. Female voters have outnumbered male voters in these and even in the last assembly elections.

‘Delhi Model’ pitching

However, the broader scale of AAP’s victory, while a reflection of anger and dissatisfaction with the Congress and the Akali Dal, may lead to more yearning for change and hope that the AAP will be the right party to purge the leadership system – a 2014 Promises made after the Lok Sabha elections. It was also a party marketing its ‘Delhi model’, promising reforms in the health and education sectors, in return for a possibly cynical voter attention.

The AAP reformed after its mistakes like bringing in “outsiders” from Delhi for leadership roles in the 2017 elections. This time, the party not only projected two-time Lok Sabha member and a Jat Sikh Bhagwant Mann as its chief ministerial candidate, but also kept a distance from the Punjabi Sikh diaspora, suspected of being radicalized by a section of voters. Was. Also, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal seems to have gained acceptance as a leader in Punjabi suba unlike last time.

Ashutosh Kumar is the Lala Lajpat Rai Chair Professor and Chairperson, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh. Views expressed are personal