Take a look at three important events of the past week. These political initiatives will be crucial in the general elections to be held in 2024.
Earlier this week, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar met for several hours with all opposition leaders in New Delhi. He met Rahul Gandhi and had dinner with Arvind Kejriwal. Though Kejriwal has declared himself a jihadi in the fight against corruption, Nitish Kumar has also met convicted leader Om Prakash Chautala. He met various Left groups and did not forget to meet Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is recovering at Medanta Hospital. His son Akhilesh was also present during this meeting. On the last day of his tour, he had a long conversation with the senior most opposition leader Sharad Pawar. Nitish had earlier met Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao met. He is scheduled to meet chief ministers and opposition leaders of non-BJP ruled states in the coming days.
Will Nitish Kumar be able to unite the divided opposition and defeat the BJP?
Nitish and his allies believe that the BJP has won 200 of the 250 seats in North and West India. Even if BJP loses 40 of these, the picture may change. He claims that in 2019, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won all the seats in 10 states and union territories. This vast region is represented by 83 MPs. In addition, the saffron party had won 184 Lok Sabha seats out of a total of 264 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Bihar.
The major NDA constituents in Punjab, Maharashtra and Bihar have decided to part ways. It is on this basis that he believes that the BJP will struggle to replicate the miracle on its own or in collaboration with some smaller parties.
This argument sounds appealing, but it has several disadvantages.
Consider West Bengal. In the 2019 general elections, BJP had won 18 out of 42 seats in the state. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee has got an unprecedented victory in the recent assembly elections. Significantly, in the 2022 assembly elections, the Congress did not get a single seat, while the Left got only one seat. Even after aligning with Nitish Kumar, ‘Didi’ is adamant on keeping the Congress and Left parties out of the alliance for the next Lok Sabha elections. Telangana CM KCR has also expressed a similar sentiment. Nitish will be in West Bengal in the coming days. Will both Bihar Chief Ministers Mamata and KCR be able to persuade the supporters of the Third Front to form the “Main Front”? Kejriwal, on the other hand, is opposed to this kind of “manipulation” politics. Apart from these three, two other leaders have the potential to disrupt opposition unity-Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. It is impossible to win the battle of Uttar Pradesh without bringing these two together.
Let us now look at two other incidents.
Rahul Gandhi left Kanyakumari on ‘Bharat Jodi Yatra’ on Wednesday. During this he will visit Kashmir. His motivation is clear. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is in a relatively strong position in South India. The Congress won 27 of the 129 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, while the BJP won 29 Lok Sabha seats. Congress believes that if the atmosphere of opposition unity heats up, then BJP will not be able to win as many seats there as it was earlier.
Kejriwal is flexing his muscles at the moment. On Wednesday, he launched the ‘Make India No 1’ campaign from his hometown Hisar. During this, he will also meet voters across the country. He fought against Modi in 2014 but lost. It remains to be seen how successful his efforts are.
Coming back to BJP. It is okay that he has no big allies left, but the top BJP leadership has no objection. cause? Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President JP Nadda are carving out the will of BJP to win at any cost. It is not without reason that the day Nitish Kumar met Kejriwal and Chautala, Shah and Nadda met party ministers and office bearers. The agenda of the meeting was to keep an eye on the 139 seats where BJP had finished second last time. The BJP is also considering an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh. The saffron party is a master at playing cards which makes everyone alert. Maharashtra is the latest example of this. Who knows what its next step is?
One thing is certain: the board is ready for 2024, but the initial bets do not reach a conclusion. Both the teams have skilled players. It is better to wait for the final result.
Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief of Hindustan. Thoughts are personal.
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