what a joke. The world’s largest car market and automakers will not compromise on eliminating new vehicle emissions over the next two decades. The Financial Times reported that Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota Motor are unlikely to get on board with the plans expected to be unveiled at the COP-26 climate summit in Glasgow, as major governments are reluctant. This includes a commitment to “work towards all sales of zero-emissions new cars and vans globally by 2040 and from 2035 onwards in leading markets”, according to a version marked “Final”. As of Tuesday, Germany, China and the US, which represented 59% of global vehicle sales in 2019, had not signed on.
This lack of commitment is absurd. The transportation sector is responsible for about a quarter of the world’s emissions. Passenger vehicles are the largest part of this, releasing about 45% of carbon dioxide. If no measures are taken – which may eventually be the case – in 2050 annual greenhouse gases will be 90% higher than the previous year. The three countries that have avoided these commitments account for about 50% of the world’s CO2 from burning fossil fuels.
As the summit in Glasgow continues, the most important players show an inability to look beyond their individual goals as to why we have made so little progress on one of the biggest crises of our time. We constantly hear about melting of snow, floods and loss of life and property. Plus, we read about billion-dollar commitments and technological innovations. Still, we are not making significant progress.
Even the most basic of objectives are out of reach right now. The COP-26 meeting is about setting clear goals to ensure that we reach the commitments of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the last meaningful climate summit. Chief among them are reducing global warming to below 1.5 °C and reducing carbon neutrality by 2050. In September, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the planet was on a “catastrophic path” to a 2.7-degree heating, “breaking” a promise made six years ago.
It is staggering that key stakeholders would not vow to do one of the most basic things. Consider the new car emissions pledge: According to Greenpeace, to reach the target, road transport needs to be completely carbon-free by 2050.
Companies need to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles over the next decade to get there. However, seven of the 10 largest automobile groups do not even have plans to do so before 2035. In a detailed assessment of the commitments and actions taken by automakers, which represent 80% of the market, Greenpeace found that they were not doing nearly as well. Sufficient. The activist group notes that as countries and territories adopted stricter regulations on emissions, some carmakers—under pressure—”devised plans to deal with the stringent laws and regulations. But none of these plans are so progressive that match the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.”
Meanwhile, a Washington Post investigation published this week found that many countries report their greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations. The paper found that the difference ranges from at least 8.5 billion to 13.3 billion tons per year—enough to have a meaningful effect on the planet’s temperature. So the problem is not even being measured properly, and that means we are in danger of pursuing a moving, or even misguided target, to minimize the damage already done. Can do very little.
Policy makers are relying on big bold headlines, yet finding focused solutions to some urgent problems. Those who are making progress are not getting enough attention or money. The days of broad goals are over: we need clear outcomes and goals that address specific problems, in a defined way to finance them.
We should also find out what is getting in the way of EV adoption and manufacturing. Leaving it in the market is no longer an option, and regulatory deadlines are a bit difficult to enforce at the moment. What the automakers are having issues with — whether it’s cost, technology, mass manufacturing or getting better control over margins — would be a good starting point. Should emissions become a public infrastructure and urban planning issue where the administration encourages fewer vehicles, regular or electric? How do we motivate consumers to get on board? A few million electric vehicles may help but governments and companies must address the real fears and concerns. Public capital should direct private money to priority sectors.
These are questions that some firms and countries are addressing in their big picture fantasies. We must identify barriers to real industry action and remove them before it is too late. Or we’ll find ourselves at another peak, talking about more ambitious goals.
Anjani Trivedi is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies in Asia.
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