To decide the direction of future politics of the country

Please allow me to take you back 50 years to make my point. Congress got a decisive victory in the 1972 assembly elections. Out of 168 seats, it secured 140 seats. After only 16 months, Congress replaced its Chief Minister Ghanshyam Oja. Chimanbhai Patel took his place, but over time resentment grew over the sharp rise in the prices of food grains, edible oil and other necessities. The students were furious. Opposition parties also had an ax to grind. As the situation worsened, Indira Gandhi was forced to suspend the state government of her own party.

In March 1974, inspired by the success of the student movement in Gujarat, students from Bihar also started agitating. Inspired by this, Jayaprakash Narayan called for “Sampoorna Kranti” (total revolution). This resistance quickly spread to other parts of the country. Meanwhile, the Allahabad High Court declared Indira’s election illegal. He declared a state of emergency to deal with these adverse conditions. He held elections in 1977 and loosened the hold of the Emergency, but his party suffered a crushing defeat. As a result, a non-Congress government came to power for the first time. The change that started in Gujarat reached its logical conclusion with this. Eight non-Congress prime ministers have assumed office. Of these, Narendra Modi is the only one under whose leadership a party has won the general election twice in a row with a clear majority.

The second time Gujarat had an impact on the politics of India, Modi was the driving force behind it.

No one can ever forget the devastating earthquake that hit Kutch on 26 January 2001. Keshubhai Patel of BJP was the Chief Minister of Gujarat at that time. Patel’s management was a complete failure after the disaster. The BJP high command handed over the reins to Modi and made him the chief minister to quell the growing public anger. Even his detractors were surprised how he transformed Bhuj in just a year. This marked the beginning of the “Brand Modi” charisma, which continues till date.

Let us now discuss the third transformational prospect that has now emerged in Gujarat.

This election is unique in many ways. Till 2017, the fight was between the Congress and the BJP, but for the first time the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as the third force. The AAP stunned political observers in the recent Gujarat local body elections by winning 28 seats in two municipalities.

According to supporters of AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, the vote base of the Congress will be “transferred” to the AAP in Gujarat as in Delhi and Punjab. If this happens, then AAP will have governments in three states and it will play an important role in the formation of the state. Agenda for the 2024 general elections. Although many political observers believe that the AAP has created a huge election buzz, reaching this stage too early can be risky. The last time Congress built such a “high” momentum in the beginning, it could not be sustained until the end. The Samajwadi Party made the same mistake in the Uttar Pradesh elections as the BJP did in West Bengal.

As a response, Congress has adopted an entirely different strategy. Rahul Gandhi is on a cross country march from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, but Gujarat has been deliberately taken out of his route. Other party officials and two other members of the Gandhi family are still absent from the campaign. The Gujarat unit of Congress has been urged to organize some small marches. The country’s oldest party feels that while BJP will lose votes to AAP in urban areas, it will be able to retain its voters in tribal and rural areas. To overcome its current plight, the Congress has to get closer to victory, not closer to victory. Congress is also expecting favorable results in Himachal.

On the other hand, BJP follows the slogan “Modi Naam Kevalam” (One and Only Modi). This strategy worked great in 2017. In Gujarat at that time, voters were often heard telling the media, “Hum naraj hai par gaddar nahi” (we are angry with the BJP but we are not anti-nationals). And when the EVM seal was opened, BJP got 49.44 percent votes, while Congress got 43 percent votes.

Undoubtedly, all parties are playing an important role in this Maha Kumbh of democracy and now we have to wait till 8th December. It will not only be a day of success or defeat, but also a day of future politics of the country. Till then let’s enjoy the big chessboard made for electoral politics.

Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief of Hindustan. Thoughts are personal.