Transition in crisis: on military action in Sudan

The resignation of Sudan’s civilian prime minister, Abdullah Hamdok, has pushed the country into further chaos already fueled by political instability, anti-military protests and violence. Mr Hamdok, who was ousted in a military coup in October and then reinstated as part of a deal, failed to convince protesters that he could form an independent technical government that would drive Sudan’s democratic transition. Will complete As the violent clashes continued, Mr Hamdok, who was called a “traitor” by the protesters, was left with no choice but to go. The crisis is in the making of the army itself. Sudan was on a slow but steady transition toward democracy under the Sovereignty Council, which was created as part of a power-sharing agreement between generals and civilian leaders. But General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dissolved the council and ousted Mr. Hamdok. Since the mass protests in late 2018, the generals have done everything possible to protect the privileges of the military. He first took power by overthrowing longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. It was only after direct military rule became untenable that they agreed to a power-sharing. And while civilian leaders were consolidating power, the military again staged a coup. But where he made a mistake was in mis-estimating the will of the protesters.

The army now has the power, but is in a difficult position. When General Burhan reinstated Hamdok without a post-coup sovereignty council, he might have speculated that the military could exercise more control over civilian government and the transition process, including elections. But with Mr Hamdok’s resignation, that plan appears to be collapsing. A direct takeover of the government by the military would be extremely unpopular. Finding a valid prime minister will also not be easy. As per the 2019 Constitutional Declaration, the Prime Minister must be selected by a Legislative Council and then endorsed by the Sovereignty Council. The Legislative Council was never formed and the Sovereignty Council was dissolved. Army may appoint another technocrat. But if the protesters didn’t accept Mr Hamdok, they certainly wouldn’t accept someone the military might appoint next. The weeks-long protests have also crippled an already weak economy. Inflation has exceeded 400%. The United Nations says at least a third of the country’s 43 million people will need humanitarian aid in 2022. Sudan needs a stable, responsive government that can address critical challenges. The military has a moral and political responsibility to resolve the crisis. It must immediately end action, honor power-sharing agreements with civic leaders in 2019, restore the Sovereignty Council and allow the country to make a full transition to democracy.

,