UK could face major omicron wave from January next year, warns new analysis

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) model lays out all possible scenarios, with the rate at which infections are currently increasing in England, leaving uncertainty over the numbers that will eventually be needed. admitted to hospital Due to virus.

It comes at a time when the UK reported another jump in Omicron cases on Friday with 448 new infections, taking the total to 1,265.

“Based on what we are seeing, we can expect a large wave of omicrons to occur in the UK,” said Dr Nick Davies, one of the researchers behind the LSHTM modelling.

The study assumes that omicron among immunizations is less severe than in previous variants and therefore the number of hospitalizations may not be very high.

However, it noted that despite the region having high levels of vaccination, the number of people infected is currently doubling every 2.4 days in England.

This indicates that Omicron is set to overtake Delta as the flagship variant in the country by the end of this year.

Dr Rosanna Barnard, one of the researchers in the analysis, told the BBC: “In our most optimistic scenario, Omicron’s impact will be mitigated by mild control measures such as working from home in the early part of 2022.” “However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Wearing masks, social distancing and booster jabs are important, but may not be enough. is,” she said.

The new research has been published online but has not been through a formal process of review by other scientists.

On Friday, face coverings became mandatory in most indoor venues in England, including theatres, cinemas, places of worship, museums and indoor sports stadiums, as part of measures to combat the Omicron version.

From Monday, work from home where possible guidance begins as part of the government’s Plan B measures to try and slow the spread of the new variant.

The Kovid-19 vaccine certificate will become mandatory for entry at most places from next week.

This comes after the UK’s Health Protection Agency (UKHSA) reported preliminary findings that the third top-up booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was up to 75 per cent effective in protecting against the Omicron variant.

It analyzed data from 581 omicron cases and thousands of delta cases to calculate how effective the vaccines were against the new variant.

This showed a dramatic drop in effectiveness against Omicron for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – administered as Covishield in India – and a significant drop for the two doses for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

“We expect the vaccines to show high protection against serious complications of COVID-19,” said Dr Mary Ramsay, head of vaccination at UKHSA.

This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed.