NICOSIA: As the ghost of all-out war Ukraine On a larger scale, the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine will undoubtedly have ripple effects on countries in the Middle East, who will have to make tough decisions and choose sides.
The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine put him in a difficult position to choose between doing business with the West or Moscow.
A possible war in Ukraine would certainly affect some areas that are of great importance to the Middle East region: energy, agriculture, the refugee question, and state relations with the West and Russia.
Since Russian natural gas accounts for about 40% of the EU gas market, it would be very difficult to replace it completely in the case of Russian cuts. Sure, the US will need to do everything possible to make up for the shortfalls of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but doing so is easier said than done.
It is worth noting that Qatar has recently been designated by the US as a major non-NATO ally, and on 31 January the US President Joe Biden The issue was discussed with Emir Tamim of Qatar in Washington bin hamad al thaneq,
Currently, Qatar is the largest global supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Australia, but its production is close to maximum capacity and is tied up in long-term contracts with India and South Korea. Therefore, it cannot supply all the required quantities.
In addition, Qatar wants to see an end to the antitrust investigation of the European Commission launched four years ago by the way Qatar was selling its long-term contracts to European clients.
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia will try to help and is already under strong pressure from the US to ramp up its oil production to reduce oil prices, which have skyrocketed.
At the same time Riyadh must be very careful not to damage its relations with Moscow, which is dominated by Saudi Arabia. OPEC Because of its partnership with Russia.
Many analysts believe that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices would exceed $100 a barrel, which would lead to a jump in global gas prices, and a huge range of products where Energy is an important production cost. It will affect people all over the world.
Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat exporters and the country was known as the breadbasket of Europe. Therefore, a potential disruption in its wheat supply would heavily impact many Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt which imports about 80 percent of its wheat from Ukraine, Libya and Lebanon, which imports about 40 percent, and Yemen, which imports about 20 percent. Percent.
Lebanon and Yemen are already very close to famine, but if war breaks out, all countries in the Middle East are expected to be hit by an inevitable rise in prices. In the Middle East there are frequent sharp increases in prices, which are sometimes quite violent, causing political instability.
If the crisis in Ukraine escalates, a new refugee crisis will arise, and desperate humanitarian aid may have to be diverted from Yemen to refugees in Europe. The crisis will be made worse by skyrocketing prices for energy and agricultural products, and funding for reconstruction and development will be unavailable.
Let us now look at some of the possible political effects of the crisis in Ukraine on specific countries in the Middle East.
The country most affected is Libya, where Russia and the West support various warring factions. The West generally supports the UN’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli, while Russia favors the eastern-based General Khalifa Haftar in Tobruk.
National elections scheduled last December were called off and there is now a risk that the Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar faction could again form a separate government at war with the government in Tripoli, triggering a new round of fighting in the war-torn country Will go ,
Because of the situation in Ukraine, it is now highly unlikely that the West and Russia will come together to stabilize the situation in Libya.
Turkey also finds itself in a position to choose between the wishes of Moscow or Washington. US Administration Ankara wants to continue its military supplies, especially drones, to the government in Kiev, while Kremlin The spokesman has stressed that Turkey’s ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region.
Given its complex relationship with Moscow, cooperation in some areas and competitive, even hostile, ties in others, Turkey is unlikely to fully align with the West against Russia.
In the economic sphere, it depends on Russian natural gas for its industry and the millions of Russian tourists visiting Turkey who bring much-needed hard currency. In the geo-strategic sphere, they support opposite sides in the war in Syria and Libya.
Other Middle Eastern states will find themselves in the unpleasant position of choosing a side. The United Arab Emirates, for example, does not want to isolate Moscow by forming an alliance with the West, but will eventually be forced to comply with Washington’s wishes.
During the past few years, relations with Moscow have improved dramatically for many countries in the Middle East, following a perceived decrease in US interest in the region, but now the crisis in Ukraine has changed almost everything, and they We cannot ignore Washington’s wishes. Paying a price.
The prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine put him in a difficult position to choose between doing business with the West or Moscow.
A possible war in Ukraine would certainly affect some areas that are of great importance to the Middle East region: energy, agriculture, the refugee question, and state relations with the West and Russia.
Since Russian natural gas accounts for about 40% of the EU gas market, it would be very difficult to replace it completely in the case of Russian cuts. Sure, the US will need to do everything possible to make up for the shortfalls of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but doing so is easier said than done.
It is worth noting that Qatar has recently been designated by the US as a major non-NATO ally, and on 31 January the US President Joe Biden The issue was discussed with Emir Tamim of Qatar in Washington bin hamad al thaneq,
Currently, Qatar is the largest global supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Australia, but its production is close to maximum capacity and is tied up in long-term contracts with India and South Korea. Therefore, it cannot supply all the required quantities.
In addition, Qatar wants to see an end to the antitrust investigation of the European Commission launched four years ago by the way Qatar was selling its long-term contracts to European clients.
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia will try to help and is already under strong pressure from the US to ramp up its oil production to reduce oil prices, which have skyrocketed.
At the same time Riyadh must be very careful not to damage its relations with Moscow, which is dominated by Saudi Arabia. OPEC Because of its partnership with Russia.
Many analysts believe that in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices would exceed $100 a barrel, which would lead to a jump in global gas prices, and a huge range of products where Energy is an important production cost. It will affect people all over the world.
Ukraine is one of the world’s top wheat exporters and the country was known as the breadbasket of Europe. Therefore, a potential disruption in its wheat supply would heavily impact many Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt which imports about 80 percent of its wheat from Ukraine, Libya and Lebanon, which imports about 40 percent, and Yemen, which imports about 20 percent. Percent.
Lebanon and Yemen are already very close to famine, but if war breaks out, all countries in the Middle East are expected to be hit by an inevitable rise in prices. In the Middle East there are frequent sharp increases in prices, which are sometimes quite violent, causing political instability.
If the crisis in Ukraine escalates, a new refugee crisis will arise, and desperate humanitarian aid may have to be diverted from Yemen to refugees in Europe. The crisis will be made worse by skyrocketing prices for energy and agricultural products, and funding for reconstruction and development will be unavailable.
Let us now look at some of the possible political effects of the crisis in Ukraine on specific countries in the Middle East.
The country most affected is Libya, where Russia and the West support various warring factions. The West generally supports the UN’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli, while Russia favors the eastern-based General Khalifa Haftar in Tobruk.
National elections scheduled last December were called off and there is now a risk that the Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar faction could again form a separate government at war with the government in Tripoli, triggering a new round of fighting in the war-torn country Will go ,
Because of the situation in Ukraine, it is now highly unlikely that the West and Russia will come together to stabilize the situation in Libya.
Turkey also finds itself in a position to choose between the wishes of Moscow or Washington. US Administration Ankara wants to continue its military supplies, especially drones, to the government in Kiev, while Kremlin The spokesman has stressed that Turkey’s ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region.
Given its complex relationship with Moscow, cooperation in some areas and competitive, even hostile, ties in others, Turkey is unlikely to fully align with the West against Russia.
In the economic sphere, it depends on Russian natural gas for its industry and the millions of Russian tourists visiting Turkey who bring much-needed hard currency. In the geo-strategic sphere, they support opposite sides in the war in Syria and Libya.
Other Middle Eastern states will find themselves in the unpleasant position of choosing a side. The United Arab Emirates, for example, does not want to isolate Moscow by forming an alliance with the West, but will eventually be forced to comply with Washington’s wishes.
During the past few years, relations with Moscow have improved dramatically for many countries in the Middle East, following a perceived decrease in US interest in the region, but now the crisis in Ukraine has changed almost everything, and they We cannot ignore Washington’s wishes. Paying a price.
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