Ukraine war will prompt NATO countries to increase military spending

The 30 countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have increased their military spending by about 2% in the past year, according to the coalition’s annual report released on Thursday. Of NATO members’ nearly $1 trillion in total military spending this year, the US accounts for about 70%.

Another 29 states are gradually increasing spending, but most still fall behind on their commitments. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, NATO members pledged to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense by 2024.

According to the NATO report, only eight countries, including the US, have already exceeded the 2% threshold, a drop from the last annual report, in which 11 countries had achieved the target. The percentages are subject to change in both the defense budget and economic activities, which have been affected by the coronavirus pandemic over the past two years.

But Germany and other countries have recently announced new plans to increase military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Mr Stoltenberg said: “I think from what we see now … there is a new sense of urgency in the coalition.” Mr Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, said it was difficult for governments to allocate more money to defence. “But as we see a new security reality, we all realize the need to invest in our own security,” he said.

Mr Stoltenberg said NATO members would soon submit new spending plans to prepare for a summit in Madrid in June.

NATO military spending reached a post-Cold War low around 2014, even as its membership grew. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and instigating an insurgency in Ukraine’s east, NATO members began to rebuild the coalition’s defenses, particularly on its eastern edge. Member states began moving troops through Poland and the Baltic states, which border Russia and Belarus, a Moscow ally.

While the coalition strengthened its military posture, its political direction changed amid internal disputes and criticism of former President Donald Trump. Mr Trump defended European members for failing to meet their spending commitments, refusing to support the coalition’s original mutual defense pledge and threatening to pull the US from NATO.

President Biden has repeatedly emphasized America’s commitment to the coalition, most recently at a summit at his headquarters last week and on a visit to Warsaw.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement last month that Germany would abandon years of austerity about military spending and soon exceed NATO’s 2% target set a new tone for defense-budget discussions in the coalition. According to a NATO report, Germany currently spends less than 1.5% of its GDP on defense. Since the country has Europe’s largest economy, an increase in military spending of more than 0.5 percent of its GDP would make a significant difference to NATO’s total European outlay.

The overall picture should become clearer at the June summit, when NATO is likely to update its financial data.

The data released on Thursday represents the seventh consecutive year of rising defense spending by Canada and European members of the coalition. “Allies are moving in the right direction,” Stoltenberg said.

As Russia invaded Ukraine in February, NATO activated its emergency response plan for the first time in years and agreed to establish four new battle groups to its southeast to complement deployments in Poland and the Baltic. The new battle groups will be in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, all of which share a land border with Ukraine or face Russia in the Black Sea.

NATO members are now considering, for the first time, permanent deployment of troops to members who joined after the end of the Cold War and were once Soviet satellites. Under an agreement reached between NATO and Russia in 1997, the coalition had agreed not to permanently deploy troops to those countries. NATO leaders say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has voided that agreement, so the coalition can now deploy troops as it sees fit.