Ukraine’s proposal for NATO-style security guarantees greeted with skepticism

At peace talks in Istanbul on Tuesday, Ukrainian negotiators handed Russia a detailed proposal of a neutral status quo for Ukraine, with its security guaranteed by the US, Britain, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Poland and Israel. The Ukrainian resolution would ask countries to respond to violations of their sovereignty in the same way that members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would act under Article 5, the coalition’s mutual-defense promise.

In an interview in Istanbul, Ukrainian negotiator David Arkhamia, the majority leader in the country’s parliament, said, “This is what we call Ukrainian NATO.” “So we get neutrality but our idea is to achieve a state of firm neutrality.”

President Biden has yet to comment on the proposal, but White House communications director Kate Bedingfield on Wednesday declined to say whether the US would be willing to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine.

“We are in constant discussions with Ukrainians to help ensure that they are sovereign and safe,” she said. “But there’s nothing specific about the security guarantee that I can talk to at this time.”

Many Western leaders have expressed support for some sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, yet none have clarified what they would look like. His reluctance to adopt a key plank of Ukraine’s notion of a blueprint—NATO collective defense mechanism—shows how far all sides are in finding an end to talks for the war.

US lawmakers also cast doubt on the proposal. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Senate Democrat and co-chair of the Ukraine caucus, said he thought the proposal was “a little premature”, adding that he did not trust Russia.

Jim Risk of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said such a proposal may be possible, but it will go a long way. “You know, we’ve already done that,” Mr Risch said, referring to the Budapest memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees. “How’s it working?

Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab also expressed doubts over the proposal to provide security guarantees to a non-NATO member. “We’ll consider anything [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky says they need to be very carefully,” Mr Raab said on BBC radio on Wednesday. “But we are not going to unilaterally repeat the NATO commitments that apply to NATO members.”

Other countries named as potential guarantors of Ukraine’s security expressed interest in the idea, but refrained from committing to the proposal.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Mr Zelensky that Berlin was “broadly prepared” to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine as part of the peace deal, a German government spokesman said on Wednesday. However, it is too early to discuss such commitments, said government spokesman Stefan Hebstreit.

A senior German government official later clarified that discussions were at an early stage, and included a proposal for a group of countries, including Russia, to guarantee Ukraine’s security as part of a peace agreement under which Kyiv Will declare independence of any military alliance, including NATO.

The German official said Ukraine’s proposal had not yet been put forward, and could only work if Russia was part of it.

According to a person familiar with the matter, France is ready to support a form of neutrality for Ukraine with its security guaranteed by several countries.

However, the person cautioned that France is unwilling to sign up for a security guarantee that includes a mechanism similar to NATO’s Article 5. Much will also depend on the details of Ukraine’s neutrality, including the status of its national military, the person added.

Russia will likely not agree to any arrangement that requires France and other permanent members of the UN Security Council to guarantee Ukraine’s security, the person said.

Any agreement to end the war would require Moscow’s support, and it is unclear whether the Kremlin will accept Kyiv’s offer. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to discuss specific proposals, saying of the talks in Istanbul, “No one said that both sides had made progress.”

However, the Ukrainian government is ready to make a proposal that would provide stronger security guarantees from Western countries.

“The activation mechanism is stronger than even NATO. If anything happens in NATO you have to consult first,” said Ukraine’s negotiator Mr. Arkhamia. “There is no mention of how long it may take. Considering how fast things are going, we put in a maximum of 72 hours. So within 72 hours, all the guarantors have to find out what is happening, If it’s aggression or special operations or war, they have to provide military support or troop.”

Crimea and the Donbass – two Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia – would not be part of the guarantee, Mr Arkhamia said. He said those areas would be kept out until their status was decided in separate talks.

Ukrainian officials proposed on Tuesday that the situation in the Donbass would be negotiated by the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, while Crimea would be subject to 15 years of talks on a different track.

Ukraine first proposed Turkey as a guarantor of its security as a member of NATO on 17 March. Turkey has good relations with Ukraine and is playing a mediating role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, hosting two rounds of peace talks.

The Turkish government has not supported or opposed the proposal, but has offered broad support for peace talks.

Turkey has also sold Kyiv armed drones, which have played a key role in Ukraine’s resistance to the invasion of Moscow, attacking Russian convoys and mobile air defenses.

While Turkey has strongly condemned the Russian aggression, it has also opted not to impose sanctions on Russia, opting to maintain its ties with Moscow to act as a mediator.

Mr Arkhamia said Israel, a non-NATO member, could also be a party to the proposed security guarantee.

“Possibly Israel because they have a strong army as well. It is good for us to have expertise for this defensive country. They also have a neutral position. I think they can mobilize their reserve forces within a day.”

At least for now, Israel is unlikely to support the proposal.

“At this time, Israel is not in a position to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. We will be ready to assist in reaching an agreement through confidence-building measures and other efforts,” a senior Israeli official said.