The assembly elections that started from western Uttar Pradesh are now set to enter the bastion of Purvanchal or eastern UP. As Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s own backyard and nearby area of Gorakhpur goes to polls in Phase 6 on March 3, there will be a bigger focus on the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as well. Much will depend on how strong the BSP can be in an area traditionally defined by Dalit and backward caste politics. It is also the belt where BSP’s social engineering continues to survive despite repeated electoral setbacks in the last two assembly elections.
It is in this belt of eastern UP, comprising 57 constituencies in 10 districts of Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar. GorakhpurFrom Deoria and Ballia, the BJP hopes that the Bahujan Samaj Party will remain a strong contender. Only a strong BSP can ensure a triangular fight in an election that has so far been seen as bipolar between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. A triangular fight could mean a division of anti-BJP votes.
Perhaps this was the political calculation behind Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent remarks supporting the BSP. Talking to News18 exclusive interviewShah had said that the BSP has not lost its relevance in the politics of Uttar Pradesh and continues to have a strong hold on its vote base. He also said that not only Dalits but Muslims also voted for BSP.
And before the larger political logic behind Shah’s remarks could be analysed, BSP chief Mayawati herself not only came forward for Shah’s remarks, but also said that not only Dalits and Muslims but also the most backward classes and society. Other classes of people too. He was also supporting his party.
The BSP may re-emerge as the big ‘make or break’ factor in the eastern UP bastion. The 2017 election results show that the party is still a force in the region. Out of the total 19 seats won by the BSP, 5 were from this region. In 2012, nine of the 80 seats that the party won were in constituencies where polling would be held in Phase 6. Even in its bottom graph of victories, the BSP was runner-up on important seats in 2017.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP had put 47 out of 61 seats at stake. SP had won only two and BSP had won five. Mayawati’s party was also a major rival of BJP in Balrampur, Siddharth Nagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar and Gorakhpur districts. In the 2012 elections, the SP won 31 seats in this phase, the BJP eight, one less than the BSP. Undoubtedly, there could be a factor to keep an eye on BSP politics at this stage.
Yogi as the chief ministerial candidate of Uttar Pradesh
The third phase of elections has also become interesting with UP CM of Yogi Adityanath Your candidature from Gorakhpur Urban seat. From 1998 to 2017, the year he became the Chief Minister, Yogi was an MP from Gorakhpur. Of the nine assembly constituencies in the district, eight were won by the BJP and one, Chillupar, by the BSP in 2017. In 2012, BJP got three, BSP got four and SP got only one.
The popularity and influence of the famous Gorakhnath Math, which also has Yogi Adityanath as its head priest, has consistently influenced elections in the region. With Yogi now as the CM, the impact is expected to play a role going forward.
In the neighboring districts of Deoria, Kushinagar and Maharajganj, where the BJP won 15 of the 19 assembly constituencies in 2017, the party will be hoping for the ‘yogi as CM’ factor with its strong Hindutva expression and good governance logic. Will help with this again. Competition. Yogi’s candidature conveys the message of his continued role in state politics.
‘Double engine government’ incident
In this region of eastern Uttar Pradesh, which was marked by poverty and slow growth for decades, the BJP is also relying on itsdouble engine government“Led development initiatives. The party claims that eastern UP has seen a big development (development) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
From the successful completion of the 361 km-long Purvanchal Expressway to the inauguration of the AIIMS and fertilizer plant in Gorakhpur, the BJP has projected them as part of its commitment to the development of eastern UP. Prime Minister Modi had repeatedly reminded people about the need for a “dual-engined government”. The party will expect it to have a strong resonance with voters.
SP Bank on its new ‘Mandal’ synergy
The electoral outcome for the Samajwadi Party will largely depend on the success of its new Mandal politics. The party’s efforts to expand its base beyond the traditional Yadav-OBC combination will be a major test at this stage. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav will rely on the likes of Swami Prasad Maurya, Ram Achal Rajbhar and Lalji Verma to work out the new caste synthesis.
Swami Prasad Maurya, a prominent non-Yadav OBC leader, had quit the BJP in January this year and resigned from the Yogi cabinet. He is now contesting on SP ticket from Fazilnagar in Kushinagar district. Can he ensure that the MBC vote gets bigger towards the SP? that remains to be seen.
In Ambedkar Nagar, adjacent to Ayodhya district, the SP is dependent on two long-term allies of BSP chief Mayawati. Ram Achal and Lalji Verma, once the pillars of BSP’s OBC politics, are now contesting on SP ticket from Akbarpur and Katehri constituencies respectively.
In 2017, despite the saffron tsunami, the BSP won three of the five assembly seats in the district. The remaining two were occupied by the BJP. In 2012, the SP had won all the five. The party will certainly hope that its social engineering will yield results here.
The party will also rely on its larger OBC politics to counter the Nishad factor in the Gorakhpur region. The Nishad Party, with its strongest base in Gorakhpur and the adjoining district, is with the BJP. The Nishad, or fishermen community, form a major part of the OBC population in this phase.
read all breaking news, today’s fresh news And Assembly Election Live Updates Here.