With 59 seats in Uttar Pradesh going to polls in the fourth phase, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to save its stronghold, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is trying to break it.
The fate of 172 seats in the assembly has been decided in the earlier three phases.
In 2017, BJP Out of 59 seats spread over the regions of Awadh, Rohilkhand and Bundelkhand, it had won 50, one seat by BJP ally Apna Dal, four by SP and two seats each by Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
The nine districts where voting is being held in this phase are to be held in Pilibhit and Lakhimpur Kheri in Terai region of Rohilkhand, Sitapur, Hardoi, Unnao, Lucknow, Rae Bareli and Fatehpur and Banda in Oudh. Bundelkhand, The region which is now a BJP stronghold was almost without saffron in 2012. Then the Samajwadi Party had won 39 seats, 12 went to the BSP and the BJP could win only four. The Congress, including Aditi Singh of Rae Bareli, had won three seats. He is in re-election, but on a BJP ticket.
In step fourUnlike phases one and two, where the Jat and Muslim equations were the biggest factors, or phase three where large parts were traditional Yadav strongholds, the regions are not defined by any major narrative. The areas of phase four have seen frequent ups and downs. In 2007, when the BSP formed the government in the state, it also did very well in this area. It was the same in 2012.
The 59 assembly seats to be held in the fourth phase are Pilibhit, Barkheda, Puranpur (SC), Bisalpur, Palia, Nighasan, Gola Gokarnath, Srinagar (SC), Dhaurhara, Lakhimpur, Kasta (SC), Mohammadi, Maholi, Sitapur, Hargaon (SC). ), Laharpur, Biswan, Sewata, Mahmudabad, Sidhauli (SC), Misrikh (SC), Sawaijpur, Shahabad, Hardoi, Gopamau (SC), Sandi (SC), Bilgram-Mallanwa, Balamau (SC), Sandila, Bangarmau, Safipur (SC), Mohan (SC), Unnao, Bhagwantnagar, Poorva, Malihabad (SC), Bakshi Ka Talab, Sarojininagar, Lucknow West, Lucknow North, Lucknow East, Lucknow Central, Lucknow Cantonment, Mohanlalganj (SC), Bachhrawan (SC) , Harchandpur, Rae Bareli, Sarani, Uncha Shahar, Tindwari, Baberu, Naraini (SC), Banda, Jehanabad, Bindki, Fatehpur, Ayshah, Hussainganj and Khaga (SC).
Can the Lakhimpur violence affect the results?
The biggest controversy that had put the BJP on the defensive and even derailed the party’s campaign was the alleged harvesting of farmers. Ashish MishraSon of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra Teni. The incident last October gave the opposition the much-needed moment to launch a mega counter-attack against the ruling BJP.
The region is an important sugarcane belt in central UP and also has a strong presence of Sikh voters.
So can the opposition expect success in the election? farmer belt Of Lakhimpur and Pilibhit? Or will the “outsider versus local” story against the Sikh farming community with large holdings help the BJP tide over the crisis?
Like the third phase, the voting pattern of the Most Backward Castes (MBC) and Dalits will also be monitored. The castes also coincide with the new beneficiary class of “beneficiaries”, which the BJP claims has been created through the successful implementation of its welfare schemes, especially free rations through both central and state quotas. In 2017, the BJP had won all eight seats in Lakhimpur and four in Pilibhit.
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From Rajnath’s turf to Sonia’s stronghold
The challenge before the BJP is to save the long-standing electoral fortress of Lucknow. The parliamentary constituency, which is still remembered as the “Karmabhoomi” of former Prime Minister Late Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Though BJP has never lost the Lucknow parliamentary seat for more than three decades with the Union Defense Minister Rajnath Singh Being the sitting MP from the City of Nawabs, it has often been a challenging contest.
The BJP had won eight of the nine seats from Lucknow in 2017. In 2012, the Samajwadi Party had won seven seats. Two cabinet ministers – Brijesh Pathak and Ashutosh Tandon – are in the electoral race. BJP is trying to fight the anti-incumbency wave by fielding Rajeshwar Singh, a police-turned-politician from Sarojini Nagar, after not giving ticket to sitting minister Swati Singh. The SP is expected to give a tough fight to some urban seats as well as the rural seats of Bakshi Ka Talab, Mohanlalganj and Malihabad.
in the neighbourhood Rae BareliekThe BJP, the last permanent stronghold of the Congress, will hope to consolidate its footprint. In 2017, despite the saffron wave, the party had won just two of the five seats in the district. Congress and one SP won two. With the arrival of Aditi Singh in the party, BJP hopes that the lotus will bloom for the first time in Rae Bareli Sadar assembly seat.
For Congress’s Priyanka Gandhi, saving the party’s stronghold and her mother Sonia Gandhi’s parliamentary constituency will certainly be a prestige issue. Priyanka campaigned extensively in the district for two days. The results here will also be read in the wider context of “the story of Congress in UP”.
MBC and Maha Dalit Factor
Since the elections are in the middle of seven phases of elections, the most important aspect, as in the third phase, will be the voting pattern of MBC and non-Jatav Dalit communities. With three phases of polling, there is increasing clarity about the voting options of the major castes and communities, i.e. Jatavs among the upper castes and Dalits including Jats, Muslims, Yadavs, Brahmins.
However, the most backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits are seen as big fencers. This is a large voting block with a large section of the economically poor who have clearly supported the BJP in 2017. The support of the MBC and Dalits, along with the upper caste, was the reason behind the BJP’s unprecedented 40% vote share. In the last assembly election.
Talking about the fourth phase, in 2017, the BJP had won seven out of eight seats in Hardoi, seven out of nine in Sitapur, four in Banda, five out of six in Unnao and all six seats in Fatehpur. In 2012, SP and BSP performed better in these districts.
this time around, SP It is expected that the issues of stray cattle, price rise, unemployment and alleged neglect of OBCs under the upper caste Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will ensure the necessary change in their favor of these castes.
The BJP, on the other hand, thinks that honest implementation of welfare schemes like housing and free rations for the poor, as well as the larger political narrative of law and order and the supremacy of a particular caste associated with the SP, will serve as the basis. There is a need to check against any possible migration. The BJP’s high-pitched campaign on the issue of terrorism and the allegation against the SP, “Tamanchwadi”, is an attempt to strengthen this narrative.
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