“This government is going to go, people will change it” (This government is going to go, people will change it). leader of samajwadi party Akhilesh Yadav These days, do not miss saying this in every public conversation. In Uttar Pradesh, the political squabbles on the ground now appear that Yadav will perform far better than in 2017, but the jury is still out on whether this will be enough to oust the party. BJP The one who stays in the pole position is far away. There seems to be a consensus though – that the election is essentially bipolar with the BSP and the Congress being reduced to minor players in UP.
Interaction with about three dozen BJP leaders who attended the meetingmaster Class‘Union Home Minister’ Amit Shah In Varanasi, News18 found that the party is inclined towards the belief that a performance of 325 seats as in 2017 may not be possible again and that the party may face some losses given UP’s anti-incumbency political history. But she will not lose power.
“People of UP have high expectations from political leaders and hence always vote for the ruling party. But the loss this time will not be enough to keep us out of power. We will still win comfortably. Apart from Narendra Modi-Yogi Adityanath A double appeal, a weak and scattered opposition is a big asset,” two BJP leaders in charge of key seats in eastern UP told News18 after the Varanasi meeting.
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Another leader said the SP-Congress or SP-BSP alliance would have given a tough challenge to the BJP. “With no opposition alliance, BSP will still get around 20% votes, Congress between 5-10% and BJP may get more than 40% votes. Hence, the SP will not be able to defeat the BJP,” argued another leader.
Priyanka Gandhi on Sunday clarified that the Congress will fight the UP elections alone. SP and BSP have also denied any alliance with each other. The only refrain in the Samajwadi Party camp is that the cyclical nature of UP’s politics will bring it back to power. “It is a bipolar election now and voters know there is no point in voting for BSP or Congress. The biggest vote against BJP will go to SP. It is a choice of ‘backward versus forward’. Apart from Yadavs and Muslims, OBC votes will go to SP this time,” a senior Samajwadi Party leader involved in the strategy told News18.
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He opposed the BJP’s belief that Yogi was his trump card. “In fact, Yogi suits us more as the CM choice of BJP in a direct contest against Akhilesh. He is a polarizing figure among voters and wants to make the election Hindu-Muslim,” argued another senior SP leader handling the Purvankal region (East UP). Another factor driving SP’s campaign at the grassroots level is high inflation, mainly high fuel, cooking gas and ration prices.
A senior Union minister, who closely handled UP in the 2017 elections, told News18 that this election will prove whether Akhilesh Yadav can be “another Ajit Singh” in terms of ruining his father Mulayam Singh Yadav’s political legacy. . “First Akhilesh allied with Congress in 2017 and then with BSP in 2019. Now, he is tying up with smaller parties. The late Ajit Singh did the same to his father’s legacy by compromising on his party’s ideology.
In eastern UP, locals in areas such as Azamgarh and Mau say Akhilesh is going for “winning ability” and is not sticking to his stand as in 2017 to stay away from criminal elements like Mukhtar Ansari or Atiq Ahmed . Supporters of the BJP in the Varanasi region told News18 that such “compromises” by Yadav helped the BJP’s main stand in these elections was that the Yogi Adityanath government had gone after the mafia in UP that was nurtured by the SP.
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“No one wants a return to the dark days of anarchy in UP. It is this issue that ousted the SP from power. Yogi has without any doubt been a strict administrator of law and order,” said a BJP leader in Varanasi.
News18 also found that BJP leaders are divided over the issue of giving benefits to Priyanka Gandhi, with some saying it may not bring dividends. “The BJP has given space to Priyanka to ensure that the election is not bi-polar and the Congress eats away at some opposition votes. But the fact is that the Congress will primarily only harm the upper caste votes which are the vote bank of the BJP. We need someone instead who can dent SP’s backward votes,” a BJP leader who attended Amit Shah’s masterclass from Saharanpur told News18.
The SP’s alliance with the RLD and Om Prakash Rajbhar, as well as the understanding expected to end the family feud with Shivpal Yadav in 2017, are huge assets for the party.
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Prashant Trivedi, associate professor at the Giri Institute of Development Studies, a Lucknow-based organization that researches electoral politics, said, “What once looked like an all-out contest was never really a multi-faceted contest. BJP may have been attacking BSP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, but after Amit Shah’s visit to Lucknow, the strategy has changed. Now BJP has started targeting Samajwadi Party itself. In fact, in the face-to-face confrontation with the SP, the party is getting more benefit from it.
This was evident in Amit Shah’s rally in Azamgarh where he mainly attacked the Samajwadi Party. Veteran journalist Rajkumar Singh said that Congress is alive only because of Priyanka Gandhi. “Congress is also discussed in the state, but it is finding it difficult to counter it,” he said. If there is an alliance between the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the picture may change a bit. On the other hand, Mayawati’s attitude is also not very aggressive. The way he once attacked the SP is no longer visible. Apart from this, almost all the veteran leaders of BSP are also gone,” Singh told News18.
Read also | BJP to start 4 yatras this month Akhilesh begins third phase of ‘Vijay Yatra’ as parties hit gas in UP
Come November, there is hardly any activity of Congress, BSP or Aam Aadmi Party in UP. At present the only parties that are seen active on the ground are BJP and SP.
Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav are constantly holding large public meetings across the state. The SP chief started the third phase of his Samajwadi Vijay Yatra on November 13 from Yogi’s stronghold Gorakhpur, while along with CM Amit Shah was present in Akhilesh Yadav’s parliamentary constituency Azamgarh on the same day. BJP is now planning to start four big trips in the state in November
Though the SP and BSP feel that the farmers’ agitation in western Uttar Pradesh will hurt the BJP, the ruling party believes that this is not an election issue in Uttar Pradesh and a ‘solution’ can be found before the elections.
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