The stage is ready for the 2022 UP assembly elections. Whereas BJP They believe that its ‘double engine’ with the support of some smaller parties like Apna Dal will defeat the opposition again, expecting the SP to bear the saffron charge by weaving alliances from the local Other backward classes Other satraps including Rashtriya Lok Dal and SBSP. BSPAn attempt is made to make the competition three-cornered by using Dalit-Brahmin combination again, while Congress A new ‘Women Vote Bank’ is trying its best to survive by carving out.
Here’s what it would mean to win or lose elections for different parties and their leaders.
Bharatiya Janata Party
To retain power, the BJP will have to repeat its dominance in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections. This is a challenging task in view of the farmers’ agitation and rising inflation. The party has done its best by playing the card of development and nationalism along with polarisation. A divided opposition would also be an advantage. This victory will make Yogi Adityanath the first chief minister after Sampurnanand to get a second consecutive term and set him on the path to succeed Narendra Modi in national politics. However, the election defeat may force the party to rethink its 2024 strategy as the reputation of the double engine – Modi and Yogi’s government – is at stake.
S: Strong leadership and cadre
W: anti-incumbency wave
O: Strengthening Hindutva
T: internal party discord
Scores in last elections
*Assembly
2012: 47 won, got 15% of the vote
2017: 312 won, votes 39.67%
*Lok Sabha*
2014 won 71, votes 42.63%
2019: 62 won, 49.98% votes polled
,
Congress
While the old party has nothing to lose as it is starting from scratch, the outcome of the election will decide whether it retains its foothold in the state which was once its driving engine in state politics. The party is fighting to get some space from where it can proceed for the next Lok Sabha elections. If the Congress manages to grab a few seats, especially because of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s pitch for girl power, it could turn out to be a turning point in Indian politics or at least a niche in terms of gender politics. Where women will aggressively demand their share in power. However, if Priyanka fails to do so for the second time in a row after the Lok Sabha elections, it will be more than an embarrassment to the party and the Gandhi family in particular.
S: Priyanka’s pitch for girl power
W: Reliability Loss
O: Build a base from scratch
T: Weak cadre
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 28 won, votes 11.7%
2017: 7 won with 6.25% votes
Lok Sabha
2014: 2 won, 7.5% of votes polled
2019: 1 won, votes 6.36%
,
Samajwadi Party
Despite being in power in UP due to the Modi wave in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the SP got only five seats. Akhilesh Yadav realized that he could not face the Hindutva juggernaut alone, especially in the wake of family feud and anti-incumbency wave. Hence, in the 2017 assembly elections, he forged an alliance with the Congress. The experiment failed miserably. He did another experiment in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with BSP and RLD, but that too was unsuccessful. This time, the SP chief has forged an alliance with smaller OBC groups – almost a replica of Amit Shah’s 2014 and 2017 election strategy in UP. Counting the anti-incumbency wave in his favor, he has framed himself as the main challenger to the BJP. If the bet is successful, then Akhilesh will be brought back to power. However, one failure could bring the party back to the Yadav belt of UP.
S: Better position to challenge BJP
W: Lack of second and third rank leaders
O: Emerge as a national leader like Mamata Banerjee
T: Overconfidence
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 226 won, 29.3% of votes
2017: 47 won, votes 21.82%
Lok Sabha
2014: 5 won, got 22.2% of votes
2019: 5 won, votes 18.11%
==================================================== ==================================================== = doable
Bahujan samaj party
For BSP it is a question of survival. Four consecutive defeats – the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections and the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections – have marginalized the party. Actually, in 2019 Mayawati To salvage the situation, it joined hands with rival SP and managed to increase its number of seats from zero to 10 seats in 2019, but this time it is standing all alone. The problem is also that almost all Bahujan lieutenants from the Kanshi Ram era have left the party to join either the SP or the BJP, leaving Maya with the Brahmin face SC Mishra. A win or a substantial increase in the number of seats in the election would not only revitalize the party, but would also keep alive Kanshi Ram’s political experiment in which he wanted to bring all marginalized sections under one umbrella.
S: Undisputed leadership
W: Lack of resources
O: Party Revival
T: cadre erosion
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 80 won, got 25.91% votes
2017: 19 won, got 22.23% of the votes
Lok Sabha
2014: Zero won, votes 19.6%
2019: 10 won, 19.43% of votes polled
Here’s what it would mean to win or lose elections for different parties and their leaders.
Bharatiya Janata Party
To retain power, the BJP will have to repeat its dominance in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly elections. This is a challenging task in view of the farmers’ agitation and rising inflation. The party has done its best by playing the card of development and nationalism along with polarisation. A divided opposition would also be an advantage. This victory will make Yogi Adityanath the first chief minister after Sampurnanand to get a second consecutive term and set him on the path to succeed Narendra Modi in national politics. However, the election defeat may force the party to rethink its 2024 strategy as the reputation of the double engine – Modi and Yogi’s government – is at stake.
S: Strong leadership and cadre
W: anti-incumbency wave
O: Strengthening Hindutva
T: internal party discord
Scores in last elections
*Assembly
2012: 47 won, got 15% of the vote
2017: 312 won, votes 39.67%
*Lok Sabha*
2014 won 71, votes 42.63%
2019: 62 won, 49.98% votes polled
,
Congress
While the old party has nothing to lose as it is starting from scratch, the outcome of the election will decide whether it retains its foothold in the state which was once its driving engine in state politics. The party is fighting to get some space from where it can proceed for the next Lok Sabha elections. If the Congress manages to grab a few seats, especially because of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s pitch for girl power, it could turn out to be a turning point in Indian politics or at least a niche in terms of gender politics. Where women will aggressively demand their share in power. However, if Priyanka fails to do so for the second time in a row after the Lok Sabha elections, it will be more than an embarrassment to the party and the Gandhi family in particular.
S: Priyanka’s pitch for girl power
W: Reliability Loss
O: Build a base from scratch
T: Weak cadre
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 28 won, votes 11.7%
2017: 7 won with 6.25% votes
Lok Sabha
2014: 2 won, 7.5% of votes polled
2019: 1 won, votes 6.36%
,
Samajwadi Party
Despite being in power in UP due to the Modi wave in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the SP got only five seats. Akhilesh Yadav realized that he could not face the Hindutva juggernaut alone, especially in the wake of family feud and anti-incumbency wave. Hence, in the 2017 assembly elections, he forged an alliance with the Congress. The experiment failed miserably. He did another experiment in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with BSP and RLD, but that too was unsuccessful. This time, the SP chief has forged an alliance with smaller OBC groups – almost a replica of Amit Shah’s 2014 and 2017 election strategy in UP. Counting the anti-incumbency wave in his favor, he has framed himself as the main challenger to the BJP. If the bet is successful, then Akhilesh will be brought back to power. However, one failure could bring the party back to the Yadav belt of UP.
S: Better position to challenge BJP
W: Lack of second and third rank leaders
O: Emerge as a national leader like Mamata Banerjee
T: Overconfidence
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 226 won, 29.3% of votes
2017: 47 won, votes 21.82%
Lok Sabha
2014: 5 won, got 22.2% of votes
2019: 5 won, votes 18.11%
==================================================== ==================================================== = doable
Bahujan samaj party
For BSP it is a question of survival. Four consecutive defeats – the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections and the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections – have marginalized the party. Actually, in 2019 Mayawati To salvage the situation, it joined hands with rival SP and managed to increase its number of seats from zero to 10 seats in 2019, but this time it is standing all alone. The problem is also that almost all Bahujan lieutenants from the Kanshi Ram era have left the party to join either the SP or the BJP, leaving Maya with the Brahmin face SC Mishra. A win or a substantial increase in the number of seats in the election would not only revitalize the party, but would also keep alive Kanshi Ram’s political experiment in which he wanted to bring all marginalized sections under one umbrella.
S: Undisputed leadership
W: Lack of resources
O: Party Revival
T: cadre erosion
Scores in last elections
Assembly
2012: 80 won, got 25.91% votes
2017: 19 won, got 22.23% of the votes
Lok Sabha
2014: Zero won, votes 19.6%
2019: 10 won, 19.43% of votes polled
,