Voting signs: On polling in Punjab, UP

Talking about the recent elections, the turnout numbers are not an indication of the direction in which the mandate is swinging. Conventional wisdom has been that high turnout numbers correspond to an anti-incumbency effect, and indeed, a sudden jump in polling numbers may indicate a wave in a particular direction. But there has been a significant increase in voter turnout across India in recent years, especially for the poor, with little change in polling numbers through interpretation of the results. The drop in turnout in Punjab from 77.4% in 2017 to 71.92% in 2022, however, indicates a certain dismay with politics in the state. The party system has changed drastically in the last few months after the removal of Captain Amarinder Singh from the post of Chief Minister. leaving the Congress and shake hands With your former arch enemy BJP, The anger at the later repealed agricultural laws was most felt in rural Punjab and the agrarian agitation against the policies of the Center should have provided the ruling Congress with a viable route to succeed. But infighting within the Congress and a late but logical promotion of the ruling Charanjit Singh Channi as the “chief ministerial candidate” created trouble for the ruling party. Ground reports suggested that the Aam Aadmi Party was also able to capitalize on the common resentment with the two national parties and the Shiromani Akali Dal, but the fragmentation of politics and the general lack of clarity between them on the issues that have been affected. The enthusiasm of the voters in the state seems to have waned.

In the third phase of polling in 59 seats in central Uttar Pradesh, 60.46% voter turnout was recorded, slightly lower than the 62% turnout in the same number of seats in 2017. As in the earlier phases, the number of voters was higher in rural areas than in cities, one case being Kanpur city, which recorded only 56.14% voter turnout. With elections dominated by identity politics, welfare and patronage, urban voters were less enthusiastic than their rural brethren, perhaps because the political discourse did not put enough emphasis on civic issues. That said, the ground reports of the three phases have indicated a closer contest than in 2017, when the BJP had a wider area in district after district in the assembly elections. Except in Bundelkhand, enough wind is blowing behind the sails of the opposition – especially the Samajwadi Party-led coalition – and the high campaigns in the third phase in potato-growing regions are a sign that elections have not taken place and the dust of elections is over. The relatively peaceful nature and focus on socio-economic issues rather than religious identity bodes well for the next four phases of voting in India’s most populous state.