war winners and losers

Russian President Vladimir Putin is defeated war By not winning. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has won without defeat. India neither lost nor won,

The war isn’t over yet. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes it will probably last until the end of this year, perhaps even beyond. Nonetheless, at this stage it is possible to arrive at the initial balance sheet of the war.

Ukrainian and Putin

The most harmed are the people of Ukraine. They have been extremely brave and resilient, and their leader has done an incredible job. Their country is devastated, flattened over large areas. Many lives have been lost. Millions of people have been ousted from their homes and familiar surroundings. Children will be in a state of trauma for many years. It will take years and billions of dollars to rebuild our country. The money will come, though probably not in the form of a grant. Industries in the West will help billions rebuild Ukraine.

The other big loser is President Putin. This is a loss for them in many ways. He hoped that his mighty army would soon capture Kyiv and establish a friendly rule. The fact that his foreign minister has now brought nuclear weapons into the equation is a sure sign of desperation. Mr. Putin has lost his face to his own people. We won’t know how many casualties his army has suffered, if ever, until much later, but the body bags have started to arrive. Their armed forces have underperformed. Perhaps they did not expect to be suddenly pushed into battle. Mr. Putin has, irreversibly, lost the trust and friendship of Ukrainians; They will remain hostile and bitter towards Russia for a long time. His war gave exactly the result he did not want and for which he waged war. Ukraine has drawn closer to the West. Ukraine will definitely join the European Union (EU), probably not tomorrow but in the near future. Mr Putin has lost credibility with his peers as well as almost everyone else.

For Mr. Putin, the purpose of starting the war was to prevent the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from moving closer to Russia’s eastern borders. His distrust of the West is justified, given the history of broken commitments and promises by the West to Mr. Putin’s predecessors at the highest level about not increasing the scope of NATO “an inch” closer to Russian borders. But his war has had the exact opposite result. He has been successful in ensuring that NATO will come even closer to Russia’s borders. Sweden and Finland are likely to join NATO soon. Russia would actually be surrounded by NATO.

benefits to the west

The biggest winner is the West. President Putin looked with satisfaction at the rift in the Trans-Atlantic Alliance caused by former US President Donald Trump. Mr Putin thought he would widen that breach. His expectation, reasonable, was that countries such as Germany, given their reliance on Russian energy sources, would refuse to go along with US President Joe Biden’s sanctions on Russia. But once again, Mr. Putin managed to produce the opposite result. Undoubtedly Germany and others will suffer greatly from reducing and eventually cutting energy supplies from Russia, but they have committed themselves to ending Russian oil imports by the end of the year. And if Mr Biden is persuaded to mend fences with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Europe will be able to face the energy crisis without much pain. Whatever the case, the demand for energy will drop significantly if summer is not far away.

The West also has economic benefits. Industries in the West will help billions rebuild Ukraine. The billions they are spending on sending vital weapons and other materials to Ukraine are all being spent in their own countries. Yes, petrol prices have risen, but they seem to have peaked and are now falling at some places.

troubled countries

China is facing a more serious dilemma than India. It has a huge share in the West in terms of trade and technology. Its two-way trade with the US and the European Union is many times greater than its trade with Russia. Europe and the US have warned of dire consequences for helping China evade sanctions by expanding the scope of yuan-ruble trade. Also, China would not like to see President Putin defeated or overthrown. President Biden has openly called for regime change in Moscow; Subsequent attempts by his officers to explain his words are not convincing. For the Chinese Communist Party, ensuring the continuous improvement of people’s living standards is an essential condition for remaining in power. China’s growth rate has declined in the past few years.

Sitting on dharna has not cost India till now. India has certainly angered the US and other Western countries with its neutral or non-aligned stance on the war. It has not supported a single resolution on the situation in Ukraine. However, the US has barred India from expressing its disappointment. India seems to have concluded that the US will be patient with it given the US strategy to contain China, for which India’s participation is crucial. The fact that the US has chosen not to punish India is because it has a NATO ally Turkey to buy the Russian anti-missile defense system S-400 and that it is willing to buy large amounts of Russian oil. Turning a blind eye to India, and that too in a rupee-ruble arrangement, shows that India’s position has cost us nothing, at least for the present.

Nor has India got anything. Yes, Russia has thanked India for its independent stand, but such thanks do not mean much in international relations. We are getting Russian oil at a discount, but Russia needs to sell its oil. Even if we were more explicit in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there would be no negative consequences. Like America, Russia also needs India. Now, when Russian weapons have proven not to be so effective, the demand for Russian weapons will decrease globally. Who else will buy Russian hardware in bulk, if not India? India’s failure to condemn Russia’s threat to include nuclear weapons in the equation is deeply disappointing.

Former Indian Ambassador to the United Nations Chinmay R Gharekhan was the Special Envoy for West Asia in the Manmohan Singh government.