Weak virus? herd immunity? Omicron raises cautious hopes

But the latest version of sweeping the world has reassured some experts that the long-held hope is that collective immunity is in sight, and that the virus may develop into a relatively benign seasonal disease.

omicron has proven to be particularly contagious, infecting people who have immunity given by vaccines or are battling disease.

But while Omicron is driving record numbers of cases in countries around the world, the disease is generally less severe than in previous forms.

Some experts have said that getting more people on Omron and recovering with more vaccinations could be the key to boosting collective protection against almost any form of COVID.

The low hospitalization rate due to Omicron also suggests that COVID-19 can develop into a weakened form, similar to long-distance coronaviruses in the general population.

“Perhaps we are seeing the beginning of an evolution towards a more common virus like most others,” said Alain Fischer, who coordinates France’s pandemic vaccine response.

Clinical virologist Julian Tang, reacting to a UK study on Omicron’s reduced severity, said he envisioned that one day revaccination and other measures would be necessary only for the most vulnerable.

“I still have hope that the virus will eventually become like other common cold coronaviruses — probably in the next one to two years,” he said.

These estimates have been adopted by public health officials.

Speaking before the legislature this week, French Health Minister Olivier Veran said “perhaps it will be the wave that allows us to have a kind of immunity”.

Earlier, his Israeli counterpart, Nachman Ash, told an Israeli radio station that herd immunity was “possible”.

“But we don’t want to reach that through infection,” he said. “We wish this would happen as a result of more people being vaccinated.”

In Israel, two thirds of the population is fully vaccinated. This week the government approved a fourth time for people over 60 and health workers to fight the virus without resorting to lockdown.

-‘A more common virus’ –

Even though omicrons lead to less severe cases per million people, a larger proportion of the infected population means that the total number of hospitalizations is bound to increase.

The World Health Organization (WHO) stressed the risk of many people becoming infected with Omicron ahead of the holidays, while the more serious delta version is still circulating.

Experts warn that in the absence of herd immunity around the world, Omicron is unlikely to be the final COVID variant.

“We’re not there yet,” Fontanet said.

“We can expect new forms to emerge, but as our immunity becomes stronger over time – either through natural infections or with booster doses of vaccines – their ability to produce serious results will diminish. “

For Antoine Flahault, chief epidemiologist at the Institute of Global Health in Geneva, all scenarios remain on the table.

“If we want to start learning lessons from the recent past of this pandemic, we must remember that it is largely unpredictable,” he told AFP.