What is happening in Kazakhstan? How the protests started and why are they growing

Russian paratroopers are in Kazakhstan providing support to the authoritarian government of President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev as it was rocked by protests over a sharp rise in fuel prices. Mr Tokayev said on Friday that he had ordered security forces to fire without warning, with a raid going on.

Since then, officials say the situation is under control and according to the presidential office, around 6,000 have been detained in connection with the protests. Health officials say 160 people have been killed in the violence, of whom more than 100 were in Kazakhstan’s largest city, Almaty. Kazakhstan is a close ally of Russia, which has borders, and is the largest country in Central Asia.

Russia has more than 75 military transport aircraft carrying troops, armored personnel carriers, supplies and military vehicles in the country. According to the Russian state news agency, the RIA, some 2,500 soldiers are expected to take part in the mission, but that number could rise.

Troops will primarily have a supporting role and guard critical and civilian infrastructure. They are part of a broader Moscow-led security coalition known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which was formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mr Tokayev said he called for reinforcements of the CSTO, which he described as a terrorist threat. He has also declared a state of emergency for two weeks in the western Mangistau region and Almaty. At the height of the violence, Kazakh officials say protesters engaged in rioting and looting and attempted to seize government buildings.

The turmoil drove crude-oil prices—Kazakhstan is a member of the OPEC+ alliance—and increased uranium prices. Kazakhstan accounts for about 40% of the global supply of the mineral.

On Sunday, US oil major Chevron Corp, which owns 50% in the joint venture running Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oil field, said it would return to normal production after cutting it due to logistical issues caused by protests at the facility. which has a production capacity of 600,000 barrels a day.

What is happening in Kazakhstan?

From January 2, protesters took to the streets and clashed with security forces. Footage on social media showed cars set on fire and police firing tear gas shells as mobs tried to storm some government buildings. Almaty residents say they heard gunshots as the demonstrations turned into widespread displays of dismay with the country’s leaders. There were reports of shootings at the presidential residence and the mayor’s office in the local media.

Last week, the government shut down access or disrupted connections to several websites and social-media platforms. Protesters briefly seized parts of the airport, disrupting flights. Residents said the shelling continued through Thursday and early Friday.

What happened because of the protest?

The opposition was triggered by the government’s decision to raise the price of fuels, especially liquefied petroleum gas, the price of which was capped. The hike – which went into effect on January 1 and doubled the cost of car fuel – threatens to have a significant impact on workers. Although Kazakhstan is an oil-rich nation, the minimum wage is less than the equivalent of about $100 a month. Mr Tokayev has since said that officials will reduce the price.

What are the protesters asking for?

Although the unrest began over the rise in fuel prices, the protesters are also unhappy with Kazakhstan’s political system and socioeconomic issues. Human rights activists accuse the government of repression, including jailing critics, to maintain control. The officials denied the allegations.

Mr. Tokayev has promised to listen to complaints by setting up a public forum to discuss the issues. Political analysts say the government has not always fully implemented its plans to transform the country and that years of tough authoritarian rule have created deep mistrust and calls for change.

Why did the government resign and what will happen next?

The Kazakh government resigned under pressure from the escalating demonstrations. Mr Tokayev accepted the resignation of his cabinet and was installed as interim prime minister, Alikhan Smilov, an aide who previously served as deputy prime minister.

Mr Tokayev has promised a political change and told News 24 state television station on Wednesday that he would soon reveal new proposals for reform.

The president accused the protesters of being conspirators of a financially motivated coup and vowed not to flee the country, “no matter what.”

Has there been any history of turmoil in Kazakhstan?

Public protests are rare in Kazakhstan, where dissent is not widely welcomed or tolerated. However, large-scale demonstrations broke out just before Mr Tokayev took office in June 2019. He was chosen to succeed the longtime president and autocrat Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had ruled Kazakhstan since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Local critics called Mr Tokayev’s election undemocratic because other candidates were not given a fair chance. Many Kazakhs have long felt alienated from the political decision-making process.

In 2011, authorities shot oil workers in western Kazakhstan protesting unpaid wages, killing more than a dozen of them. Human rights activists said the death toll could have been in the dozens.

What does this mean for Russia?

Kazakhstan shares a trade union and other strategic partnership with Russia. Mr Tokayev and his predecessor Mr Nazarbayev, who have continued to wield political influence behind the scenes, both have the backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia’s foreign ministry said last week that Moscow “supports peaceful resolution of all problems within the constitutional and legal sphere and within the framework of dialogue, and not through street riots and violations of laws.”

The unrest on Russia’s southern border comes as Mr Putin tries to stop what Mr Putin describes as the West’s encroachment on Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence in Belarus and Ukraine. The Russian leader has amassed thousands of troops along the border with Ukraine, which wants closer ties with the West. Mr Putin has demanded that the US and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies abandon any eastward expansion towards Russia’s borders, which is posing a significant security challenge to the Biden administration.

US officials are expected to hold talks with Russian counterparts in Geneva starting Monday to try to de-escalate tensions on Ukraine. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will hold a working dinner with Russian Deputy Secretary of State Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday evening.