New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which met Tuesday in New Delhi, boasts of a 38-party alliance — a far cry from the Atal Bihar Vajpayee-led 24-party coalition in 1998. The NDA’s show of strength coincided with the unity talks among 26 Opposition parties in Bengaluru.
In Delhi, BJP chief J.P. Nadda called the NDA an ideal coalition to serve the country while labelling the Opposition alliance as “Bhanumati ka kunba (a rag-tag team)”. But, a closer look at the NDA constituents reveals that many of them barely have a presence in national politics while others failed to make a mark in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
For instance, the BJP’s current allies collectively got a 7 percent vote share and 29 seats in 2019, shows data of the Election Commission (EC). In contrast, the BJP, the single-largest party, secured 303 Lok Sabha seats with 37.3 percent vote share.
Of the total 37 allies, nine did not field candidates and another 16 drew a blank in 2019. Seven parties managed to win one seat each. To put in perspective the lopsided seat share, the BJP (303), the Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena (13), the Apna Dal (Sonelal) (2) and the now split Lok Janshakti Party (6) account for 324 seats.
The NDA’s overall tally goes up by a notch at 332 with the support of an NCP MP from the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
The BJP’s biggest partner is the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena with 13 Lok Sabha Members of Parliament (MPs) and the Lok Janshakti Party (both factions) has six MPs. Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (Sonelal) has two members in the Lok Sabha.
Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party (NPP), Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio-led Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Sikkim Kranti Morcha (SKM), Naga People’s Front (NPF), All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) and the Mizo National Front (MNF) have one MP each in the Lok Sabha.
The nine NDA parties, which did not contest in 2019, were Maharashtra’s Jan Surajya Shakti, Goa-based Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), UP’s Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD Party), Punjab’s SAD Sanyukt (Dhindsa), Manipur’s Kuki People’s Alliance, Meghalaya’s Hill State People’s Democratic Party, Haryana Lokhit Party, Kerala Kamaraj Congress and Tamil Nadu-based Puthiya Tamilagam.
Though it has one MP in the Lok Sabha, the AIADMK with 66 MLAs is the main Opposition in Tamil Nadu and a formidable ally for the BJP which is struggling to find its feet in the state. While the BJP failed to open its account in 2019, it managed only four seats in the 2021 assembly election.
Many smaller parties are crucial for the BJP as they hold sway over a few districts and constituencies.
For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 62 of the total 80 seats but its win margin was lesser than the votes polled by the Congress on eight seats. The BJP’s chances of winning are brighter with the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) now returning to the NDA.
“We have managed to set our Maharashtra house in order, with Ajit Pawar joining us. We couldn’t have matched our 2019 performance with just Sena in our corner…we need to shape our south strategy, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana,” a senior BJP general secretary told ThePrint.
As mentioned earlier, 25 NDA allies may not have a single MP in the Lok Sabha, but they have a presence in their respective states. For instance, Republican Party of India-Athawale president Ramdas Athawale is a Rajya Sabha member, while the party has two MLAs in the Maharashtra assembly.
Similarly, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has one Rajya Sabha MP and nine MLAs, while the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) has a Rajya Sabha MP and seven MLAs. Tamil Nadu’s Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has one Rajya Sabha MP and five MLAs. SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar is among the party’s six MLAs in Uttar Pradesh.
The Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) has only one MLA, no Lok Sabha MP. SAD (Dhindsa) has no MLAs, or MPs. Haryana’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) has 10 MLAs, but no MPs.
“Lord Ram sought everyone’s help in his battle against Ravan. We also can’t be taking chances. We may not have big alliance partners — except the AIADMK, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar and Chirag Paswan — but sometimes, even a 1 percent difference in vote share can bring victory,” a senior BJP leader told ThePrint.
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Small, but enough to influence result
In Uttar Pradesh, Apna Dal (Sonelal) got 1.2 percent of votes and won two seats in 2019, but it helped the BJP in consolidating Kurmi votes in the eastern region.
Similarly, Sanjay Nishad’s NISHAD party fielded one candidate — his son Praveen Kumar Nishad — on the BJP symbol from Sant Kabir Nagar and won.
SBSP’s Rajbhar left the NDA in 2019, but rejoined it last week. Although it got 0.5 percent votes in 2019, Rajbhar claims his party wields considerable influence on 12 Lok Sabha seats in eastern UP.
For example, the BJP just about managed to secure Machhlishahr and had a tough fight at Ballia in 2019 as the SBSP had contested independently.
In Machhlishahr, the BJP won by 181 votes against the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and would have lost had the SBSP’s 11,223 votes gone to the Opposition alliance. In Ballia, the BJP won with a margin of 15,519 votes and the SBSP’s 39,000 votes could have easily swung the election in favour of the opposition.
In Jharkhand, the AJSU got 4.3 percent votes and one seat in 2019, but it helped consolidate the Kushwaha vote for the BJP. The BJP had bagged 11 of the 14 total Lok Sabha seats in this eastern state.
To gain lost ground
In Bihar, the BJP got 17 Lok Sabha seats with 24.05 percent votes in 2019, while the JD(U) won 16 seats with 22.3 percent vote share.
With Nitish having switched sides since, the loss of 20 percent vote share is a matter of concern for the BJP. The JD(U)’s vote share, combined with that of the RJD’s 15.36 percent, the Congress’ 7.8 percent, and the Left Front’s 2.2 percent, means over 45 percent vote.
Among the BJP allies in the state, the LJP has a Dalit base while the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) can help it corner the Kushwaha votes. Similarly, Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) draws strength from the Mallah (fishermen) community. The Hindustani Awam Morcha of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi enjoys support from the economically backward sections.
“We need more parties to counter the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. Many parties don’t win seats independently, but they can add votes and change the dynamics for the BJP. That is why, Kushwaha, Manjhi and Paswan become crucial for us,” another senior BJP leader told ThePrint.
In Karnataka, the BJP won 25 of 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. But the Congress’s win in the May assembly elections is a matter of concern for the party. The Congress won 135 seats with 42.9 percent vote share in the assembly while the BJP got 66 seats with 36 percent vote share and JD(S) got 19 seats with 13.3 vote share, the EC data shows.
There is speculation of the JD(S) and the BJP fighting the Lok Sabha election together, but there isn’t an official word on it. “Roping in the JD(S) may minimise our loss which is our biggest challenge since the Congress’s victory in Karnataka,” the BJP general secretary quoted above told ThePrint.
In Punjab, the SAD-BJP alliance won only four of the total 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 while the Congress bagged eight. In 2020, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) left the NDA in protest over the now repealed farm laws. However, its breakaway factions came together as SAD (Sanyukt), which is now a part of the NDA.
In the 2022 Punjab election, the Aam Aadmi Party won 92 seats while the BJP managed just two — Pathankot and Mukerian. The SAD had got three seats. This year’s Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll was won by the AAP with 34.05 percent vote share, the BJP got 15.2 percent while SAD got 17.9 percent. The erstwhile SAD is in talks with the BJP for an alliance, party sources told ThePrint.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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