While estimates of the prevalence of the omicron version of COVID-19 are tentative, it appears to be much more transmitted (almost certain) and more benign (much less certain). It is not only that more people have been vaccinated or have some form of natural immunity, but also that the variant itself may be somewhat less dangerous, even for people hospitalized by it. .
With all this in mind, it is worth thinking about a possible path for the virus over the next few months to better understand how to tackle it.
In England, Omicron cases are doubling every three days, and Omicron is displacing the delta variant. Under a plausible estimate, at current rates of growth Omicron would peak in many countries in January or February – too soon for any specially designed boosters to have an effect. Given the slowdown in addressing the pandemic to date, there will hardly be enough time to make several important policy changes.
In other words: the start of 2022 will be an interesting time in the US and elsewhere.
Even though Omicron is safer than Delta, the number of COVID cases could hit an all-time high, given that even vaccinated people have imperfect levels of protection against infection. And if people consider Omicron to be relatively less dangerous, higher cases are more likely.
How will institutions react to the spread of cases?
Imagine that in a school a significant percentage of students are positive, but no one is seriously ill. Will he feel compelled to close the school and go to distance learning?
One possibility is that administrators will realize that virtually everyone is going to hold onto O’Micron, make that reality clear to their constituencies, and proceed with face-to-face instruction. An alternative scenario is that the mere mention of Covid would prove to be so scary that the shutdown would be inevitable. After all, in a month or two from now, how much will be known about the chances of getting a long covid from Omicron? I expect a lot of schools to be closed.
Another habit that will be difficult to break is tracking the severity of the virus by counting cases. So far, cases have been a very good predictor of subsequent hospitalizations and subsequent deaths. If cases become more isolated than bad outcomes, will institutions and officials be able to respond faster to that new reality? As long as they make adjustments, if they do, Omicrons can come and go.
For those willing to worry, it will be scary how quickly Omicron cases accumulate. It can feel like the apocalypse has arrived, even if a lot of that short-lived case activity is an acceleration of disease rather than an increase in the year’s total. (How scared would we be if most murders happened in the first six or eight weeks of the year?) In any case, hospitals have to be prepared. But it is likely that many health care professionals could test positive as early as next year.
How will voluntary social distancing work? Even though Omicron is safer than Delta, there will be some risks involved, including vaccination. And, because of its rapid rise, Omicron’s summit can occur in a short but intense burst. Probably many people would be fine if they knew they only needed to stay inside for a few weeks.
But even a short self-imposed lockdown could lead to significant supply-chain problems. The bright side of that calculus is that many of those problems can be temporary, as an omicron that comes on too quickly can fade away quickly.
What about travel? Many more Americans would be afraid to go abroad. As it stands now, they need to test negative to re-enter the country. In January or February, however, the chances of a positive test result may be at an all-time high, even if you are feeling well. So there is a risk of a decline in international travel.
This is all speculation, of course. There are many other possible scenarios, including a much higher number of deaths. But the result is the same: even a relatively positive outlook will create big new problems in early 2022.
Oh, and before I forget: Happy New Years.
Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution. His books include ‘Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero’.
This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed. Only the title has been changed.
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