Beijing: China is conducting live-fire military exercises in six self-declared areas around Taiwan in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island that Beijing claims as its territory. China has warned planes and ships to avoid the areas during the exercise that lasted until Sunday. The exercise appears to be a rehearsal for a possible blockade and invasion of the island that will almost certainly draw with US allies including Taiwan’s main backer, the United States, Japan and Australia.
China’s 2 million-strong army is one of the world’s largest and its navy has more ships than the US. Taiwan’s armed forces cannot compare in numbers, but it has supported the Chinese Communist Party’s rule over the self-governing island democracy. Has vowed to oppose coercive measures to be implemented. ,
Stanford University political scientist Kharis Templeman said, “Re-establishing a stable balance will require some tough diplomacy. I don’t know how this confrontation will ultimately go, but I think we’re in trouble for a few weeks.” ”
The following is a look at the issues surrounding the escalation of stress.
What is China doing in the sea and skies around Taiwan?
China says it has started exercises involving warplanes, naval ships and missile strikes in six areas around Taiwan. They are located 20 kilometers (12 mi) off the coast of the island, potentially breaching Taiwan’s territorial waters. Few details have been provided by Beijing, but it has described the practice as a punishment for the US, allowing Pelosi’s visit to go ahead, even though President Joe Biden did not have the authority to block her visit to the island. .
The live-fire exercise is a test of an army’s ability to perform missions under real combat-like conditions. In this case, they are designed to show that China could show a level of force against Taiwan if it decided to make good on its pledge to control the island and punish those who supported its independence. Is.
The exercise is considered the largest and most dangerous for Taiwan as Beijing launched missiles into the north and south of the island in response to visits to the US by then-President Lee Teng-hui in 1995 and 1996. China regularly sends warplanes into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and has crossed the midline of the Taiwan Strait, splitting sides, but has prevented direct incursions or attacks that lead to a regional conflict. can give.
Why is China taking this step and what does it hope to achieve?
China has increasingly forcefully declared that Taiwan should be brought under its control by force if necessary, and in defiance of Washington and other supporters of the island’s democracy. Pelosi’s visit comes at a particularly sensitive time when Chinese President and head of the armed forces, Xi Jinping, is seeking a third five-year term as leader of the ruling Communist Party. Xi has not named a successor and has amassed vast powers despite criticism of his handling of the economy, partly as a result of his harsh approach to COVID-19 and a marked deterioration in relations with the West.
Xi has said the fate of Taiwan cannot remain volatile indefinitely and US military officials have said China may seek a military solution in the next few years. China’s constitution includes Taiwan on its national territory and its 2005 anti-secession law threatens invasion if “the possibilities of a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted,” freedom or foreign interference. In the case of formal declaration is seen to be applicable.
China insists that Taiwan accept its argument that the island is part of China, whose only legitimate government sits in Beijing. In the face of China’s military threats and relentless campaign to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, the islanders overwhelmingly support the status quo of real independence. That sentiment is further reinforced by Beijing’s ruthless crackdown on political rights and free speech in Hong Kong, which China has long touted as a model for its future governance of Taiwan.
What has been the response from Taiwan and the US?
Taiwan has put its military on alert and has conducted civil defense exercises. While its air force, navy and 165,000-member armed forces are a fraction of the size of China, they have been bolstered by high-tech weapons and early-warning systems that aim to make a Chinese invasion as difficult as possible. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which China has tacitly backed, has also served as a wake-up call for Taipei, which now seeks to overhaul training and strategy.
Several US Navy and other military assets are currently stationed in areas close to Taiwan, including the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its battle group. Washington has widely rejected China’s claims that the Taiwan Strait is sovereign Chinese territory and retains the right to cross Chinese posts in the South China Sea, despite Chinese opposition.
What are the risks and how long will the stress last?
It is not clear whether China will try to keep tensions at a high level even after the end of the current round of exercises. Spokespersons for the foreign and defense ministries, the cabinet’s Taiwan Affairs Office and other departments have vowed President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration and the US government would pay a price on Pelosi’s visit, but did not give details on how and why it was intended. When will it be achieved? ,
After the visit, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told US National Public Radio that given the scale of the Chinese exercise “the possibility of some sort of incident is real.”
“And we believe that what China is doing here is not responsible. We believe that it is unnecessarily escalating tensions,” Sullivan said.
Templeman, a political scientist at Stanford University, said the long-standing working relationship between Washington and Beijing is being “severely challenged” by both sides.
Washington has pushed back against Beijing with high-level visits, an easing of official contact restrictions and arms sales.
“Washington as a whole has become far less concerned about offending China and far less respectful of Beijing’s demands for Taiwan,” Templeman said.