Russia faces sanctions and threats of an appropriate response from the West, but security and diplomatic experts on both sides of the divide have suggested that President Vladimir Putin Can’t stop in Ukraine.
Putin’s recent speeches and statements indicate that Ukraine may be part of his larger ambition to restore some of Russia’s old glory. He is deeply hurt by the way the end of the Cold War ended the global influence of the Soviet Union and Russia.
With the invasion of Ukraine, Putin now believes he has a strategic buffer between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to advance his security interest and advance the Great Russian Dream.
NATO was expanding rapidly to bring many Soviet constituents (in its neighborhood in Eastern Europe) into a US-dominated military alliance. Experts have said that after invading Ukraine, an upbeat Putin may continue to try to redefine the post-Cold War security and border system.
worry after a setback
Vladimir Pastuhov, a senior research associate at University College London, has said that Putin looks like the Ayatollah (Iran’s supreme religious leader) who is showing religious fervor to ensure his place in the history books.
“If he can, he will do everything to go beyond Ukraine,” Pastuhov told the BBC.
William Taylor, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, has also said an upbeat Russia is unlikely to stay in Ukraine, a Soviet-era constituent only. Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic will be very concerned as they see Russian tanks rolling in Ukraine, Taylor has said in an interview.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also shocked the Baltic countries that joined NATO in 2004 and supported Ukraine in the current conflict. Multiple reports suggest that many Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians, who once lived under Soviet control, fear they may be the next Russian target.
The head of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, James Nixie, said the Balkans are now vulnerable. “The Balkans are seen less by the West, and thus, could be the next Russian targets. Hungary and Serbia, for example, are already willing petitioners.”
A Russian-speaking separatist region in Moldova called the Trans-Dniester may be another flashpoint because the communist leadership there is pro-Russian. NATO has described the situation in Moldova as worrying.
preference
When Russia invaded another former Soviet republic, Georgia, in 2008, it said the use of force was needed to save Ossetians from the Georgian genocide. However, the latter did not find much legal justification.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, a part of Ukraine territory between the Black Sea and the Azov Sea.
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Ukraine failed to provide a military response, and Russia invaded despite assurances not to do so. This and Russia’s growing military presence in the Trans-Caucasus region are also troubling some experts in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has never applied for NATO or EU membership.
Putin has also been aggressive towards other neighbors and former Soviet states such as Belarus. Putin believes that Russia is an empire, and like Ukraine, Belarus is not a state and should be reunited with Russia. Putin has used the territory of Belarus to enter Ukraine.
Soviet commanders excited
News reports quoted several former commanders of the then Soviet military as saying that Ukraine would not be the only country to return to Russia. Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary and a few others will do the same, former commanders have said.
And the strategy, according to him, would be similar to the one seen in Ukraine:
Recognizing the independence of rebel-affected areas.
– Send forces there.
– Hold a plebiscite and expand Russia’s borders.
“The 1990s didn’t kill us, it made us stronger. NATO will have to retreat,” a former Soviet military commander is quoted as saying.
No immediate threat of war with America
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO has been increasing its presence in Eastern Europe, but has no plans to enter Ukraine. The US has also said that its military will not engage the Russians until a NATO member country is attacked.
However, it is strengthening its military presence in Russia’s neighbourhoods: Poland and Romania.
A NATO charter mandating all allies to defend any member under attack would be a deterrent to Putin, but should those countries have a willingness to fight.
“This is a fight for Europe. Putin would like to go ahead,” warned Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.
Why can’t sanctions really stop Russia?
Putin has indicated he will absorb sanctions from the West to advance his security interests in Eastern Europe. He believes that Russia’s financial system, affected by sanctions in 2014 after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, has made adjustments – in addition to reducing foreign debt, foreign exchange reserves and domestic agricultural production and production in other sectors. To promote – and to face isolation.
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“We knew the restrictions would come. The West has repeatedly used this tool. The sanctions make no sense,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the BBC.
What about Russia’s reputation in the West?
“What about the reputation of the West? It is covered in blood,” said Maria Zakharova.
Researcher Vladimir Pastuhov also says the West thinks sanctions will be a game-changer, but Putin is firm.
suspense and tension
As of now, there is little clarity on how things will progress. For the record, the Kremlin has said that Putin will decide how long the military operation in Ukraine will last “based on its progress and goals”.
“Putin’s favorite tool is suspense; He likes to maintain tension,” Lilia Shevtsova, who has written the book Putin’s Russia, told the BBC.
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