There is concern about corruption, but it does not seem to be an election issue.
There is concern about corruption, but it does not seem to be an election issue.
Although corruption rarely becomes a central issue in elections, it always informs governments’ assessments of voters. In Gujarat, with the possible entry of AAP, which launched an anti-corruption movement a decade ago, the issue of corruption becomes even more relevant.
Read also: a note on methodology
Our survey shows that voters’ assessment of the government on corruption is not very positive. More than three-quarters of the state’s voters said corruption has increased in the last five years. This sentiment has increased by 15% since 2017 (Table 1).
a corrupt government
Additionally, when voters were asked direct questions about how corrupt the BJP government is in Gujarat, more than seven out of every 10 said the government is corrupt at some level (very or somewhat corrupt), while two out of 10 The close of the IS felt that it is not very corrupt or not corrupt at all (Table 2). In a previous survey, Lokniti had asked a similar question on corruption in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal at the time of 2021 assembly elections. Gujarat has the largest share of voters who feel that the state government is very corrupt or somewhat corrupt, followed by Kerala (71%), Tamil Nadu (67%), Assam (63%) and West Bengal (56%). ) (table). 3)). Given that these states have governments led by various parties, it is clear that the notion of corruption is beyond the constraints of the party.
The issue of corruption has made the BJP a target of Arvind Kejriwal, who promises a ‘corruption-free’ government if voted to power. To understand whether corruption is an important election issue, we look at the vote choices of those who believe that corruption has increased in the state. The data shows that the BJP has an advantage even among those who believe that corruption has increased. A significant portion (44%) of those who spoke of rising corruption in the state said they would vote for the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections. The vote of the remaining voters with a similar view on the rise in corruption was split between the AAP (25%) and the Congress (21%) (Table 4).
The BJP was slightly on the backfoot, only among those who had a firm opinion that the BJP government in the state was very corrupt. Of them, 37% said they would vote for the AAP and a more or less equal proportion said they would vote for the Congress and the BJP (Table 4).
preferred option
Mr Kejriwal’s strategy of using corruption to attract voters to the state appears to be only marginally successful. The BJP was the preferred choice for over half of the people who said the government was somewhat corrupt. Therefore, despite the negative assessment being made on corruption, this count may not adversely affect the BJP at the time of voting.
Vibha Attri and Alia Malik are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS