Beijing: Shortly before the invasion of Ukraine in February, Vladimir Putin And Xi Jinping Announced a “no limits” friendship. Still, even if his army suffered humiliating losses on the battlefield, the Russian president should not expect much help in his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since then.
Xi and putin They will meet face-to-face in Uzbekistan on Thursday in their first meeting since Beijing’s meeting ahead of the Winter Olympics, which yielded a long joint statement of more than 5,000 words. In it, he vowed “to have no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” to challenge the US-led global order and emphasize a multipolar world.
Yet when Putin invaded Ukraine a few weeks later, China appeared cautious. Officials in Beijing initially struggled to avoid supporting Russia and an apparent violation of sovereignty – an excuse that could be used to justify foreign interference in Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. claims that.
China’s diplomatic support for Russia eventually strengthened over the months, and further strengthened after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Last week, China’s number three official Li Zhanshu visited Moscow and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leader “fully understands the need for all measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its core interests.”
fear of sanctions
But trade has boomed even as the US and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, with Beijing barred from sending military supplies or financial aid that could make it a target of such sanctions. And, despite recent fears among some financial investors, Beijing’s position is unlikely to change, even if Putin asks Xi on Thursday for military aid in Ukraine, following heavy Russian losses in recent weeks.
“Chinese officials talk about a ‘without borders’ partnership, but Russia and China have always agreed to disagree on many issues,” said Elizabeth Vishnik, a senior research scientist at CNA, a security think tank in Washington.
“I don’t think Chinese military aid to Russia is likely due to sanctions and strong international opposition,” he said. “It would also refute Chinese claims that Western military support for Ukraine perpetuates the war.”
In recent days Putin has seen some of its biggest losses since the start of the war, with Ukraine saying it recaptured more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 sq mi) of land in a retaliatory strike that shifted the momentum of the conflict. have make. Although Russia still controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, fears are growing that Putin may seek further advances to gain the upper hand.
While Xi sees Russia as an important diplomatic ally to oppose the US, especially for its military alliances and control of the global financial system, he has few domestic incentives to join. The Chinese leader is set to secure a third term in power at a party congress next month, while also grappling with an economic slowdown and asset crunch.
Furthermore, sending troops or weapons would be a violation of sovereignty, which would undermine China’s own declared positions. The Kremlin has had to turn to Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition, according to the US.
Any Chinese loss of life or economic hardship due to financial sanctions only risks turning political back on the Communist Party, which has vowed to raise the standard of living among the masses and even save people from Covid. Major cities have been shut down to prevent dying.
Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at the Brussels-based policy research organization Crisis Group, said China has many ways to show greater support for Russia that will not fundamentally shift its position on the conflict.
This includes using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan to show the world that Putin is not isolated, as well as potentially participating in more military exercises with Russia, she said.
Economic ties between China and Russia have grown despite US and European sanctions in the war. Dominated by energy and other goods, Russia’s exports to China rose nearly 50% to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year.
China has also helped foreign firms fill the void left by fleeing with cars, TVs and smartphones as its exports to Russia recover after the invasion. Exports of integrated circuits and other semiconductor components and the machines that make them to Russia rose to $155 million in the first seven months of this year, a nearly 27% increase compared to the same period in 2021.
“So far China has provided political and moral support to Moscow, but refrained from providing military aid and is walking the line on sanctions,” Hsiao said. “This posture reflects the balance of its strategic interests with its economic interests – these interests will continue to guide Beijing’s position going forward.”
Xi and putin They will meet face-to-face in Uzbekistan on Thursday in their first meeting since Beijing’s meeting ahead of the Winter Olympics, which yielded a long joint statement of more than 5,000 words. In it, he vowed “to have no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” to challenge the US-led global order and emphasize a multipolar world.
Yet when Putin invaded Ukraine a few weeks later, China appeared cautious. Officials in Beijing initially struggled to avoid supporting Russia and an apparent violation of sovereignty – an excuse that could be used to justify foreign interference in Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. claims that.
China’s diplomatic support for Russia eventually strengthened over the months, and further strengthened after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Last week, China’s number three official Li Zhanshu visited Moscow and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leader “fully understands the need for all measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its core interests.”
fear of sanctions
But trade has boomed even as the US and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, with Beijing barred from sending military supplies or financial aid that could make it a target of such sanctions. And, despite recent fears among some financial investors, Beijing’s position is unlikely to change, even if Putin asks Xi on Thursday for military aid in Ukraine, following heavy Russian losses in recent weeks.
“Chinese officials talk about a ‘without borders’ partnership, but Russia and China have always agreed to disagree on many issues,” said Elizabeth Vishnik, a senior research scientist at CNA, a security think tank in Washington.
“I don’t think Chinese military aid to Russia is likely due to sanctions and strong international opposition,” he said. “It would also refute Chinese claims that Western military support for Ukraine perpetuates the war.”
In recent days Putin has seen some of its biggest losses since the start of the war, with Ukraine saying it recaptured more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 sq mi) of land in a retaliatory strike that shifted the momentum of the conflict. have make. Although Russia still controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, fears are growing that Putin may seek further advances to gain the upper hand.
While Xi sees Russia as an important diplomatic ally to oppose the US, especially for its military alliances and control of the global financial system, he has few domestic incentives to join. The Chinese leader is set to secure a third term in power at a party congress next month, while also grappling with an economic slowdown and asset crunch.
Furthermore, sending troops or weapons would be a violation of sovereignty, which would undermine China’s own declared positions. The Kremlin has had to turn to Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition, according to the US.
Any Chinese loss of life or economic hardship due to financial sanctions only risks turning political back on the Communist Party, which has vowed to raise the standard of living among the masses and even save people from Covid. Major cities have been shut down to prevent dying.
Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at the Brussels-based policy research organization Crisis Group, said China has many ways to show greater support for Russia that will not fundamentally shift its position on the conflict.
This includes using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan to show the world that Putin is not isolated, as well as potentially participating in more military exercises with Russia, she said.
Economic ties between China and Russia have grown despite US and European sanctions in the war. Dominated by energy and other goods, Russia’s exports to China rose nearly 50% to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year.
China has also helped foreign firms fill the void left by fleeing with cars, TVs and smartphones as its exports to Russia recover after the invasion. Exports of integrated circuits and other semiconductor components and the machines that make them to Russia rose to $155 million in the first seven months of this year, a nearly 27% increase compared to the same period in 2021.
“So far China has provided political and moral support to Moscow, but refrained from providing military aid and is walking the line on sanctions,” Hsiao said. “This posture reflects the balance of its strategic interests with its economic interests – these interests will continue to guide Beijing’s position going forward.”