If Marib’s regime falls into the hands of the Houthis, it would be a blow to the Saudi-led military coalition, which has been battling an Iran-aligned group and UN-led peace efforts for more than six years.
The impending battle for the city of Marib would also put a population of 3 million people at risk, with some one million fleeing other parts of Yemen as it was mired in a regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. ,
Houthi military spokesman Yahiya Sara announced on Tuesday that they had seized Marib’s al-Juba and Jabal Murad districts, after taking al-Abdiyah and Harib last month, adding that “our mujahideen marched towards the city of Marib”. continued his march”. Is.”
They are spread over most of the districts of Marib, Yemen’s only gas-producing region, and in Marib al-Wadi, one of the country’s largest oil fields, which is entirely under government control with the city of Marib.
It is unclear whether the Houthis will directly attack the capital of the Marib governorate or move to take the nearby oil and gas facilities and besieged the city.
Their territorial gains in Marib as well as oil-rich Shabwa in the south come despite coalition airstrikes and fierce fighting, which have inflicted heavy losses on both sides but also killed civilians.
Mayasa Shuja al-Din, an ally in Sanaa, said, “Houthi control over all Marib is only a matter of time, although it may take several months, until government forces receive superior quality weapons from the coalition and the differences between them.” are not. Solved.” A Center for Strategic Studies.
Government forces say they will not bow down. Two military sources and a local official said that there are ditches, sand sacks and mines around the city.
A military commander said, “If the Houthi move from the desert to the oil and gas fields east of the city of Marib, they will be easy prey for coalition warplanes, so they will try to surround the city on three fronts, but we You can face them and break them.” , who declined to be named, told Reuters.
Marib lies to the east of the capital Sanaa, which the Houthis seized along with much of northern Yemen in 2014 after they ousted the Saudi-backed government, only to intervene to find the coalition caught in a military standoff. left for. was inspired.
The United Nations and the United States have struggled to engineer the ceasefire needed to revive political talks to end a war that has killed thousands and starved millions.
“Our immediate concern is the safety and security of civilians in Marib. In the first six months of this year, more civilians were killed or injured than in the previous two years,” said Erin Hutchinson, Country Director of the Norwegian Refugee Council. in Yemen.
There has been little progress in talks between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran aimed at de-escalating tensions, and the Houthi advance in Marib is likely to further excite Tehran. Both the enemies have been fighting for years to capture the entire area.
“From an Iranian perspective, their allies in Yemen, the Houthis, appear very close to winning the war in the north, if not the whole country. It is extremely difficult to understand why they or the Houthis would think this is the right time to stop,” said Peter Salisbury, a senior analyst at the Group on International Crisis.
Riyadh, which wants to pull out of a costly war but needs security guarantees, including Houthi missiles targeting Saudi cities, has seen the Houthis transform power since 2019, when ally the United Arab Emirates had largely ceased its presence.
“The Saudis … will not leave (Yemen) at any cost, they need to make their intervention somewhat successful,” Salisbury said.
Even if Riyadh makes a pact with the Houthis, ending the war requires agreement between Yemen’s myriad factions.
“Is it possible to work towards an internally consistent agreement? It’s a lot of moving parts,” he said.