After the tumultuous 2022, the world is headed for another year of many disruptions, including an economic slowdown. Peppermint WebMD breaks down five crises to watch in the coming months, some old and others new.
What risks could the war in Ukraine bring?
The Ukraine war could continue until 2023 and pose some major threats. President Zelensky’s army will launch its offensive against the Russians on Ukrainian soil. An attack on Moscow-held territories such as Crimea could push Ukraine and its proxies into a devastating conflict with Russia. The prospect of further Russian defeat could trigger another round of nuclear threats from Moscow. Another concern is the staggering financial cost of rebuilding Ukraine and addressing its refugee crisis. With the bill running into the hundreds of billions, it is clear that the country and its supporters have a mountain to climb in 2023.
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How about the Afghan humanitarian crisis?
The shockwaves surrounding the Ukraine war have pushed Afghanistan down the list of global priorities. Still, the scale of its crisis is staggering. 3.5 million Afghans have been displaced and 24 million are in need of humanitarian assistance. The country has also been affected by drought and earthquakes. The Taliban have exacerbated the problem with harsh social codes, which have closed access to higher education for women and reinstated flogging and public executions. For India, a regular aid donor, the prospect of growing instability in its strategic backyard will be a matter of concern.
Will the recession of the developed world affect us all?
The head of the IMF has indicated that the eurozone is headed for recession, partly as a result of the severe cost of living crisis prompted by Russia’s energy war. Growth in America will also be muted in 2023. The slowdown could have significant consequences for India, which was counting on strong demand from developed markets for its export growth.
Will Taiwan become a flashpoint in 2023?
In 2022, Beijing launched a series of provocative military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan also hosted US Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August, further fueling the Chinese threat. Neither Taipei nor its supporters in Washington want to fight Beijing. Battling the devastating Covid-19 wave, China has its reasons for avoiding conflict. The US announced billions in military aid to Taipei, and China responded by sending its fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
How will the US-China tech war shape up?
Washington unveiled sweeping sanctions on advanced technology exports to Chinese companies in October. Experts felt the intention was to cripple China’s formidable technology sector and preserve America’s lead. The US will try to include Japan and the Netherlands in its export control regime next year. Should they succeed, it would represent the most concerted effort yet to drive apart the US and Chinese economies. While Beijing has yet to retaliate, Washington’s no-holds-barred effort to stunt its tech sector could lead to a reaction.
Elsewhere in Mint
In Mint Special’2023: Moderation Redux‘, Janet Yellen Explains Why America Won’t Follow cheapest supply chain, Di Guo and Chenggang Xu argue that Soviet endgame threatens to cripple China’s economy, Jose Antonio Ocampo says after covid-19debt epidemic is shaking the world. Will the central bank do what it does? Carmen M. Reinhart asks.
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