A balancing act: on the Finland election, the years of Sanna Marin and what awaits Petteri Orpo

Sanna Marin, one of Finland’s most popular politicians, has been praised for helping her country navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic and for her decisive response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. His personal approval rating remains at 64% (69% among women). Nevertheless, she was leading a centre-left-green coalition. out of power on sunday In an election that was mainly dominated by economic issues. In the final results, the conservative National Alliance emerged as the largest party with a 20.8% vote share, while Ms Marin’s Social Democrats came third (19.9%) behind the anti-immigrant, populist Finns party (20.1%). In Finland’s proportional representation system, the Social Democratic Party was expected to improve its seats from 40 to 43 in 2019, but Ms Marin’s coalition partners, including the Center Party, the Left Alliance and the Green League, suffered major setbacks. Peteri Orpo, the leader of the National Alliance, will be given the first chance to form a government. But the National Alliance, which is projected to have 48 seats, must show the support of at least 101 legislators in the 200-member parliament to form the next government.

When Ms Marin, 37, became prime minister in 2019, leading a coalition of five women-led parties, she was one of Europe’s youngest leaders. His predecessor, Antti Rinne, a former trade unionist, was in office for only six months. Skeptics doubted Ms. Marin’s ability to hold the coalition together; His tenure was also shaken by the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine. But he took tough decisions without losing the confidence of his colleagues. He began borrowing and expanded social spending and investment to cushion an economy battered by the pandemic. For Finland, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine brings back grim memories of the ‘Winter War’, the 1939 Soviet invasion of Finland. Even though Finland lost territories, the country remained neutral throughout the Cold War. But the Ukraine war changed the strategic calculus of its leaders and Ms Marin consolidated public opinion on NATO membership. Nevertheless, the economic costs of the Ukraine War partly led to its downfall. Mr Orpo attacked Ms Marin’s handling of the economy amid rising inflation and high borrowing, while populist Finns criticized the country’s immigration rules. Economic uncertainties, which were exacerbated by the war, allowed both sides to make gains. Mr. Orpo, a seasoned politician, must now decide whether to side with the Social Democrats or the populists. Either way, he will find it difficult to strike a balance between parties with divergent views while tackling defense and economic challenges.