A water meter stands on a dry wetland in the Donana Natural Park in southwest Spain Photo Credit: AP
This week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis report released like him Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Cycle, drawing together key findings from its six most recent reports. The report gains added legitimacy as its summary for policy makers has been approved line-by-line by the governments of the world. The United Nations Secretary-General called itSurvival Guide for Humanity, The report could shape our collective response to this crucial decade, which could be make-or-break for humanity, and is likely to be the IPCC’s final report for some years.
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some takeaway
The report confirms that human activity is ‘clearly’ driving global temperature rise, which has reached around 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels. While the rate of emissions increase has slowed over the past decade, it is estimated that humanity will be on a 2.8 °C (2.1 °–3.4 °C range) trajectory by 2100. This temperature rise has already had a rapid and widespread impact on climate systems. , It states that “for any given future warming level, there are many climate-related risks higher than those assessed at AR5”. This new realization reflects much of the focus on trajectories in the IPCC report that limit global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C. This relative focus at 1.5 °C has two implications.
First, the amount of carbon that the world can emit cumulatively before reaching the key temperature limit, i.e. the world’s ‘carbon budget’, is much lower for 1.5 °C than for the 2 °C target. Modeled global pathways suggest that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030 (average estimate) to limit warming to 1.5 °C (with a probability of 50%), while The same number (67% chance) is 21% for limiting warming to 2°C. Strikingly, it notes that projected CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing fossil fuel infrastructure already exceed the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C without additional reductions.
Striving for a target of 1.5°C implies deep and immediate reductions in emissions across all sectors and regions, more prominently in different national circumstances and the question of climate equity and the common but differentiated responsibility of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Creates operational questions of basic theory. and related capabilities. The IPCC report suggests that humanity had already consumed 4/5th of its total carbon budget for 1.5°C by 2019, with developed economies consuming the lion’s share. The report also states that existing modeling studies, which are often used to assess emissions trajectories, do not explicitly account for questions of equity. While from an impact perspective, it is important to aspire to the 1.5°C target, a correspondingly low carbon budget raises questions of equity and who bears responsibility for achieving these ambitious targets.
Second, the identification of greater risk at lower temperatures points to the need for early climate adaptation. The report highlights that adaptation has its limits, meaning that some losses and damages from climate change are inevitable. For example, the report finds that some coastal and polar ecosystems have already reached hard limits in their ability to adapt to a changing climate. The effectiveness of some adaptation options that are feasible and effective today (such as urban greening and wetland restoration) diminishes with rising temperatures. Importantly, the report warns against certain forms of adaptation such as poorly planned seawalls – called siltation – which can exacerbate and exacerbate climate impacts in the short term and often lead to unjust adaptation benefits. It also argues that at higher levels of temperature, climate change can lead to cascading risks such as food insecurity, leading to migration, which is extremely challenging to manage. A logical consequence of these findings would be that because countries cannot develop a way out of climate risk and vulnerability entirely, mitigation is essential.
main message
So while the diagnosis is dire, what about the prognosis?
The key message of the report is the urgent adoption of ‘climate-resilient development’ – a developmental model that integrates both adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all. If it sounds like aiming high, that’s because it is; Countries no longer have the luxury of focusing only on adaptation or mitigation or even development.
The report assesses a plethora of technologies and design options, such as solar power or electric vehicles, that could help countries reduce emissions or become more resilient today, at low cost and in a technically feasible way. It also points to the fact that there is more synergy between mitigation and adaptation actions and the Sustainable Development Goals than there are trade-offs, although it cautions against paying insufficient attention to these trade-offs. Prioritizing and addressing equity and social justice in transition processes is key to climate-resilient development. The report strikes a particularly upbeat note on the co-benefits of climate action for air quality. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the air quality and health benefits of mitigation outweigh its cost.
While a climate-resilient development pathway is the journey, the destination is net zero emissions globally. If sustained, net-zero GHG emissions would result in a gradual decline in global temperatures. However, this may be contingent on significant carbon dioxide removal, which is challenging to achieve on a large scale.
Progress Report
How is the world doing in this regard? The report finds some concrete evidence of progress in the dissemination of laws and policies, and confirms the effectiveness of existing policy instruments such as regulations and carbon markets. A promising, yet potentially unheard story is that of policy packages, a coherent and comprehensive set of policies linked to a specific policy objective that can help countries meet short-term economic goals.
At the same time, many gaps remain in humanity’s response so far. The report points out that there are substantial gaps between modeled sustainable pathways and what countries have promised (the ambition gap), as well as between what countries have promised and what they actually do (the implementation gap). Delayed action risks locking-in high carbon infrastructure this decade and creating stranded assets and financial instability in the medium term. Therefore, high upfront investment in clean infrastructure is imperative. However, despite ample global capital, both adaptation and mitigation financing needs to increase several times: between three and six times for annual modeled mitigation investments from 2020 to 2030. The report, thus, paints a picture of progress and innovation in the face. Inadequate ambition, implementation, climate finance and investment, despite the cost-effectiveness of many response options.
The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report is a landmark report because it lays out a blueprint for sustainable development while presenting a sobering account of current and future damage to ecosystems and the most vulnerable among us. Now it is up to the governments and the people of the world to decide what to do.
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This week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis report released like him Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) CycleDrawing together key findings from its six most recent reports.
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The report confirms that human activity is ‘clearly’ driving global temperature rise, which has reached around 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels.
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The key message of the report is the urgent adoption of ‘climate-resilient development’ – a developmental model that integrates both adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all.
Navroz K. Dubash is a professor at the Center for Policy Research. Partha Bhatia is Associate Fellow at the Center for Policy Research