A global order caught in a whirlpool of chaos

At the turn of the 20th century, the world of the 21st century is proving to be extremely chaotic. Geopolitical experts in the West currently limit their findings to the effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict, believing that it would determine not only war and peace but also other important aspects. This is a short-sighted view, as the Ukraine-Russia conflict is one of many aspects currently changing the contours of world governance. Significant developments are also taking place in many other regions of the world, which will be equally if not relevant to the future of the international system of governance.

What did German Chancellor Olaf Scholz say at the end of the three-day meeting in June 2022? G7 leader in the Bavarian Alpssummarizes the prevailing mood as a whole, meaning.“A time of uncertainty lies before us. We cannot predict how it will end.” In this case, presumably, the German chancellor was referring only to the outcome of the Ukraine–Russia conflict, as he clearly did not consider the fact that outside Europe Many other important changes were taking place, and those are already beginning to determine the new. The order of things. The West’s obsession with the outcome of the Russo-Ukraine conflict, valuing it above all else, is indeed deceptive.

Europe could be hullless

The inward-looking tendency of European leaders is, perhaps, not surprising. Europe has been going through a number of major changes in recent months. Germany, which has led European politics for nearly two decades under Angela Merkel, now has a chancellor (Olaf Scholz) with hardly any foreign policy experience. Without Germany’s steady hand, Europe would literally drift into turbulent waters. Emmanuel Macron may have been re-elected as President of France, but his wings have been chopped off as the opposition now enjoys a majority. French National Assembly, This has tarnished his image, and Mr. Macron can hardly be expected to provide the kind of leadership that Europe currently needs. The United Kingdom is in deep trouble, if not in disarray. Consequently, at a time when real and ethical issues need to be dealt with tactfully and firmly, Europe appears without a rudder.

Complicating this situation is the negative economic impact of the war in Ukraine. This is being felt not only in Europe but around the world. What is already clear is that in addition to rising costs of energy, food and fertilizers, some countries face the threat of food shortages, as Ukraine and Russia are generally seen as the world’s granaries. . Apart from this, nations also face many other problems, including foreign exchange crisis in some cases. Many of these problems may have existed before but are exacerbated by ongoing conflict. Its impact is now being felt outside Europe as well.

Six months into the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the topology of geopolitics is also undergoing major changes. It is happening in directions not previously envisaged. As far as sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, so far as Russia is concerned, it has not had the desired effect. It would be a grave error of judgment if the West imagines that the unity and power displayed by European nations (on this occasion backed by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), has been a win-win situation. The situation in Europe is yet to be decided, but it is also becoming clear that outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, giving rise to a new patchwork of relations.

a Sino-Russia link

The churn in global politics is clearly visible. For example, China and Russia have further strengthened their ties and the situation is increasingly moving towards a formal alliance. Russia’s growing closeness with China – exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict – has revived memories of the Sino-Soviet alliance of the 1950s and their rendezvous during the 1950s and 1960s. At the time, it was described as a ‘lips and teeth’ relationship.

Meanwhile, China’s growing influence in the Pacific, including the Indo-Pacific, and further strengthened by ties with Russia, may hardly have been a by-product of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, but it has inspired new energy in a potential conflict. Between two rival power blocks. All efforts by the United States, including AUKUS (Australia, UK and US) and Quad (US, India, Australia and Japan) or not the launch of any other Indo-Pacific entity, meaning., ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (which includes the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Japan) can expect to effectively block the winds of widespread change in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific. It is important to understand the changing nature of relations in Asia and to consider that most Asian nations are unwilling to take sides in the event of conflict. In contrast to the unity and strength displayed by European countries – backed by the US and NATO – to outdo Russia and undermine its image, there is no evidence of any such unity of purpose in the event that China starts a conflict with Taiwan. Had been.

India and its Neighborhoods

In the current environment, India finds itself in a difficult situation. It cannot ignore the situation created by the strong ties between Russia and China. While relations with China may remain uncertain and unsatisfactory (at least for the time being), India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as India’s ‘credible friend’. Is. Then, it would be too much to hope that in dealing with China, India can expect the same kind of support it might need from the Quad. However, China intends to establish its dominance and sideline India in Asia, which New Delhi may have understood during the virtual BRICS summit hosted by China in June. China’s renewed confidence and its attempt to hijack the situation as part of preparations for a new world order was much evidence on that occasion.

Apart from China, India also urgently needs to strike a deal with Taliban Afghanistan. Its effort to forge a working relationship with Taliban Afghanistan without compromising on its previous policy of ‘no trucks’ with the Taliban is still at a very early stage. However, time is of the essence.

At this juncture, the democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka, which resulted in the ouster of Rajapaksa, presents India with a new set of problems. India’s relations with the previous regime can be called perfect rather than cordial, but in a situation where ‘anger’ and ‘anger’ are the dominant emotions, there is every reason to worry that even such governments Those who have retained the ‘hands’. Off’ relations can become a target of new forces emerging in Sri Lanka. There are also aspects of Sinhalese ‘Janata Aragalaya’ that need to be studied carefully, to ensure that its arrival does not create an anti-India atmosphere in Sri Lanka.

churning in west asia

Among other major developments taking place in the 21st century, West Asia continues to have a churn of sorts. The Abrahamic Agreement in 2020, which entered into force between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, has been a harbinger of some new trends in the tangled web of relations between the countries of West Asia. But as America’s ties with Arab countries in the Middle East appear to be weakening, Russia and China have begun to play an important role, as the basis for establishing new ties with Iran. Russia’s entry into West Asia has taken a quantum leap. Relations with Iran have deepened. China continues to strengthen its ties with the region, and with Iran in particular.

India on its part is making steady progress in increasing its contacts and influence in West Asia. While India-Israel relations date back to the 1990s, India-UAE relations have flourished over the years. However, India-Iran relations have of late reached an impasse. However, India has been noted to join a US-based conglomerate, I2U2, which includes India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the US. The US has indicated that this body may become a ‘feature’ of the West Asian region, like the Quad was for the Indo-Pacific. The details of the new arrangements are unclear, but it is clear that the target is Iran, as China is for the Quad, injecting another element of uncertainty into an already troubled region.

nuclear deterrence

Finally, and in the wake of Western allegations about Russia’s potential use of strategic/battlefield nuclear weapons, concerns have begun to be expressed by American academics – many with close connections to the establishment – in the context of the current gap between India and China. India’s nuclear deterrence capability is argued to be a wide gap today with respect to the nuclear deterrent capabilities of China and India, and voluntary restrictions on testing and its ‘non-use before’ progress in this area. blames India for the principle of It is also implied that India can bridge this gap by getting help from western countries which have such capability and knowledge. It is not yet clear whether this has any attraction among officials in the West, but it is important for India to take such a stance at this time to undo its carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine. Be careful with the efforts, and it should be taken into account. Any anti-China western move on this front.

MK Narayanan, former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal, is currently the working chairman of CyQureX Pvt. Ltd., UK-USA Cyber ​​Security Joint Venture