While their ties have deepened, Hasina and the Modi government have failed to resolve long-standing issues.
While their ties have deepened, Hasina and the Modi government have failed to resolve long-standing issues.
In August, addressing devotees gathered to celebrate Janmashtami, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdul Momen urged the Indian government to ensure that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina remains in power when Bangladesh holds elections next year. He claimed that both India and Bangladesh would achieve political stability by ensuring this. These general remarks by a senior cabinet member caused a stir on both sides of the border. Senior leaders of the ruling Awami League distanced themselves from these remarks, while India remained silent. Mr Momen’s comments came first Ms. Hasina’s visit to India From 5 September to 8 September 2022.
business and connectivity
Following the conclusion of the seventh round of the India-Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission in June, the two neighbors have expanded their partnership to include artificial intelligence, fintech, cyber security, startups and connectivity. Trade will be a focal point during Ms Hasina’s visit as the two countries prepare to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The two prime ministers are also expected to inaugurate a joint venture power plant soon.
The CEPA comes at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose duty-free and quota-free market-access facility to India after 2026, when it graduates to a developing country. Bangladesh is India’s sixth largest trading partner, whose bilateral trade has grown from $2.4 billion in 2009 to $10.8 billion in 2020-21. Bangladesh imports important industrial raw materials from India on which its exports depend. According to the Working Paper of the World Bank, Bangladesh’s exports could grow by 182% under the free trade agreement. This can be up to 300% when combined with business convenience measures and lower transaction costs. Bangladesh can also improve several manufacturing industries by taking advantage of Indian expertise in the service sectors.
India and Bangladesh have implemented several projects to promote eastern India-Bangladesh connectivity. India’s connectivity projects with ASEAN and Bangladesh will open the region to economic development. Bangladesh has expressed its willingness to join the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway project. India-Bangladesh bilateral waterways trade will get a boost as India can now access Mongla and Chittagong ports. India is rallying Bangladesh to divert its exports through Indian ports in place of Malaysian or Singapore ports. Increasing connectivity through India’s Northeast and Bangladesh is critical to bilateral cooperation. Currently, three express trains and international bus services operate between India and Bangladesh.
The sharing of Teesta water has been a thorny issue between the two countries since 1947. For West Bengal, Teesta is important for maintaining its poor agricultural districts, which account for 12.77% of its population. For Bangladesh, the Teesta floodplains cover about 14% of the country’s total cropped area and provide direct livelihood opportunities to about 7.3% of the population. The countries are expected to sign at least one major river agreement during the upcoming visit.
In 2015, India and Bangladesh settled a decades-long border dispute through a land swap agreement. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah recently reviewed the security arrangements in the Assam-Meghalaya-Bangladesh tri-junction, which used a smugglers’ route. In 2019, India enacted the National Register of Citizens and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which created an uproar within and outside the borders. Ms Hasina termed the move as “unnecessary”. But his government has mostly remained silent on India’s “internal matter”, even as political commentators and citizens fear it could have ripple effects for Bangladesh. The detainees caught at the border that year claimed that they were Bangladeshi nationals returning to the country after failing to obtain Indian citizenship.
regional geopolitics
Chinese incursions into the neighborhood have been a matter of concern for India. China is actively pursuing bilateral relations with Bangladesh. Bangladesh had successfully approached China for a major project to increase the water flow of the Teesta River. Bangladesh also needs China’s support in resolving the Rohingya refugee crisis. Bangladesh is the second largest arms market for China after Pakistan.
Bangladesh is also heating Pakistan. Relations between the two remained cold for decades after Pakistani politicians made inappropriate comments on the International Crimes Tribunal set up by Bangladesh. Although the memories of 1971 are still there, Bangladesh has expressed its interest in establishing peaceful relations with Pakistan.
In its election manifesto for the 2018 Bangladesh general elections, the ruling Awami League emphasized cooperation with India, including sharing the Teesta waters. The Teesta continues to be a concern for the Bangladeshi population who depend on the river for their livelihood. Ms Hasina has worked to strengthen bilateral ties and, by leading from the front, rooted out all anti-India insurgency activities within Bangladesh. But Teesta’s unresolved issue does not keep her in a good position among voters. Many believe that Delhi and Kolkata have not responded adequately to their bold and pragmatic steps in strengthening ties with India.
India-Bangladesh relations saw the least deterioration during the 2001–2006 tenure of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). In 2004, there was a 10-truck arms and ammunition consignment in Chittagong. Investigators believed the delivery of the smuggled weapons was to the United Liberation Front of Assam, a militant group demanding Assam’s independence from India. These illegal activities caused tension between the countries. The BNP’s short-sightedness and ignorance about relations with India cost it dearly, as Delhi’s corridors of power had lost faith in the party. But the Awami League is not even tinkering with the electorate, openly sabotaging its cordial relations with India for the sake of continuity of power.
In Bangladesh, there is a prevailing belief that India’s goodwill towards the country is tied to a particular political ideology or ideology in contrast to Bangladeshi society at large. The challenge for India is to earn the trust and confidence of Bangladeshis in all regions and sections. Ms Hasina has strengthened ties with the Narendra Modi government, but both have long failed to resolve issues such as Teesta water sharing and border killings. The question is how these factors can affect elections in Bangladesh. For India to have a long-term stable relationship with its most trusted friend in the neighbourhood, it will require more than a cordial relationship with a particular government. Just as Bangladeshis are grateful to India for the generous support extended by India during the 1971 Liberation War, they are equally sensitive to being treated with respect and impartiality, no matter where their country is ruled.
Syed Munir Khasroo is the President of the International Think Tank, The Institute for Policy, Advocacy and Governance, which has presence in Delhi, Dhaka, Melbourne, Dubai and Vienna. Email: munir.khasru@ipag.org