A New Social Origin: The Hindu Editorial on BJP’s Ideologically Affiliated Voters

As the dust lifts after the assembly elections in five states, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh And Youstar constellationThe ruling Bharatiya Janata Party now has a decidedly firm influence on politics in the country. A CSDS-Public Policy survey in four states (not conducted in Manipur) shows a clearer picture. Even when the level of net satisfaction with BJP-led state governments was either low (UP, Uttarakhand) or negative (meaning more respondents were dissatisfied than satisfied in Goa), the party easily managed to win the election. doing. There are clear reasons. The BJP significantly consolidated sections of the electorate to form a strong and durable coalition of Aadhaar voters. Lokniti survey data shows that in four states, while opposition parties garnered massive votes among religious minorities, a large section among Dalits and a fraction among OBCs, BJP votes were in upper castes , politically dominated by non-OBCs and a growing section of Dalits. This consolidation of the BJP’s voter base, especially in the Hindi-speaking region, is what political scientists call the new dominant party system similar to the “Congress system” of the 1950s and 1960s, albeit with a different social core. Compulsive factor – Hindutva. This social core has ensured that dissatisfaction with BJP governments does not directly translate into votes against the regime and is expressed in how voters identify with the party and its leadership, which it represents in the central government. Is.

The level of net satisfaction with the central government was also higher by 17 points in UP, 46 points in Uttarakhand, 18 in Goa and eight points in Punjab, where the mood was against both the central and state regimes. The battered economy, the public health crisis during the pandemic, the rising specter of unemployment, agricultural legislation and other agrarian concerns, especially in rural areas, weighed on voters’ minds. While welfare measures such as cash transfers to farmers and rationing schemes helped some of the poorest in support of governance, the solid support for the BJP among the sections mentioned above reinforces the idea of ​​an expanding base that has an ideological connection. Team. There were regional factors as well – the presence of a substantial vote-gathering party in an otherwise dwindling BSP in Uttar Pradesh, the emergence of an alternative to the AAP in Punjab, and the weakness of the Congress. For the cons, the takeaways are stark. It is necessary for them to counter the BJP by creating a clear message that declares that development and economic progress is the best possible through social justice and harmony among communities. But electoral success is not sufficiently guaranteed unless the message is delivered through a dedicated organization that can at least counter the formidable machinery of the Sangh.