In advancing its Indo-Pacific strategy, India needs to be mindful of the Sino-US equations in the region
If the escalating confrontation between the United States and China turns into an arms conflict, a potential area could be the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is the unfinished task of the liberation of China in 1949 under the Communist Party of China (CCP). Guomindang (KMT) forces under Chiang Kai-shek were defeated by CCP forces under Mao Zedong in the 1945–49 civil war. Chiang retreated to the island of Taiwan and established a regime that claimed authority over all of China and pledged to eventually recover the mainland.
‘strategic ambiguity’
In return the CCP promised that it would reclaim the province regarded as a “renegade” province and achieve the eventual reunification of China. Taiwan could not be militarily occupied by the newly established People’s Republic of China (PRC) as it became a military ally of the United States during the 1950–53 Korean War. It was described as an “unimaginable aircraft carrier”, underscoring its strategic importance. This phase culminated in 1979 with the recognition of the PRC as the legitimate government of China, severing its official ties with Taiwan, and revoking its mutual defense treaty with the island.
Nevertheless, the US has declared that it will “retain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defence” while not committing itself to doing so. This is a policy of “strategic ambiguity”. China, on the other hand, is committed to peaceful integration, but retains the right to use force to achieve the objective. It’s its own version of strategic ambiguity. The PRC has adopted a distinctive carrot and stick policy to achieve Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland. It has prioritized the prospect for peaceful reunification, by promising the island a high degree of autonomy under the “one country two systems” applied to Hong Kong for the first time since the repatriation of Chinese sovereignty in 1997. According to this source, Hong Kong will retain its free market system and its political and judicial institutions and procedures for a period of 50 years, thus enabling an extended and gradual transition. The same promise was made to Taiwan, but with the added assurance that it could retain its armed forces during the transition period.
economic link
With China adopting market-oriented reforms since 1978 and, over time, becoming a significant economic and commercial opportunity globally, Taiwanese business entities have invested heavily in mainland China and the two economies became increasingly integrated. Huh. Between 1991 and 2020, the stock of Taiwanese capital invested in China reached US$188.5 billion, and bilateral trade in 2019 was US$150 billion, accounting for about 15% of Taiwan’s GDP. In contrast, the stock of Chinese capital invested in Taiwan is barely US$2.4 billion, although investment through Hong Kong could be substantial.
Taiwan’s efforts to reduce the island’s economic risk to China have so far not been successful. China hopes that the economic benefits Taiwan’s trade and industry accrue through growing ties with China will weaken opposition to integration. By the same token, China is capable of inflicting acute economic pain on Taiwan through coercive policies if the island is seen moving towards an independent status.
taiwan politics
There are two major political parties in Taiwan. The KMT, dominated by mainland descendants who arrived on the island with Chiang Kai-sek in 1949, is committed to a one-China policy and does not support Taiwan’s independence. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the other hand, is more representative of the island’s indigenous population, and favors independence.
However, in the face of aggressive threats from China and a lack of international support, the demand for independence has been muted. China feels more comfortable with the KMT and is hostile to the DPP. Ever since the DPP under Tsai Ing-wen won the presidential election in 2016, China has resorted to a series of hostile actions against the island, including economic pressure and military threats. These actions have intensified since Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected in the 2020 elections. Abandoning the ‘one country two systems’ formula promoted by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, China adopted a series of radical policies in Hong Kong, with public opinion turning in its favour. China could no longer pretend that this model was in any sense relevant to Taiwan’s future under Chinese sovereignty.
An important implication of this development is that the prospects for peaceful integration have diminished. Sentiment has increased in favor of independent status in Taiwan. Increasing military threats against Taiwan through daily violations of its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and aggressive naval maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait are currently deterrent in nature, aimed at independence and any move toward its closer military ties with the US. is to be carried forward.
America’s stand
While the US does not support the declaration of independence by Taiwan, it has gradually reversed the policy of avoiding official-level engagements with the Taiwanese government. The first breach occurred during the Donald Trump presidency when several senior officials, including a cabinet-level official, visited the island. Joe Biden’s executives have continued with this policy. Taiwan’s representative in Washington was invited to attend the presidential inauguration ceremony (Biden), again for the first time since 1979. Now reports have emerged that US defense personnel have been training with their Taiwanese counterparts for some time. In a new incident last week, a US nuclear-powered submarine reportedly collided with an “unknown object” in the South China Sea. China has strongly opposed these actions of America.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s latest statement on Taiwan on October 9, on the eve of Taiwan’s National Day, responds to these developments. Mr. Xi said integration should be achieved peacefully, but added that the Chinese people have a “splendid tradition” of resisting separatism. “The historic task of complete integration of the homeland must and will certainly be accomplished,” Mr. Xi said.
These statements are somewhat less aggressive and impatient than his earlier statements on Taiwan. This may be related to a recent telephone conversation between President Joe Biden and Mr. Xi, when Mr. Biden reportedly assured Mr. Xi that the US would abide by the “Taiwan Accord”, meaning the US would follow its one China policy. will not reverse. .
Is China ready to launch a military operation to invade and occupy Taiwan?
In March this year, US Pacific Commander Philip Davidson warned that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years as part of its strategy to displace American power in Asia. He suggested that Chinese military capabilities were developed to achieve this objective. Other analysts argue that cross-strait operations would be extremely complex and that pacifying hostile populations could prove long-drawn and costly. Therefore, China may be content to end Taiwan’s independence while continuing to build its capabilities and await a further relative decline of American power and its willingness to intervene in Taiwan’s defense.
effect of alliances
These calculations can be disturbed by accident or miscalculation, and the recent submarine incident is a warning in this regard. The recent crystallization of the Quad, of which India is a part, and the announcement of the Australia-UK-US alliance, Aukus, see Australia graduating as a power with nuclear-powered submarines, as a deterrent against Chinese moves. can function as Taiwan.
But they can equally motivate China to pursue an agenda of integration before the balance in the Indo-Pacific changes.
For these reasons, Taiwan is emerging as a potential trigger point for an arms conflict between the US and China.
Taking forward its Indo-Pacific strategy, India will do well to take these possible scenarios into account.
Shyam Saran is the former Foreign Secretary and Senior Fellow of the Center for Policy Research.
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