Afghan picking up threads from rubble

The Taliban appears to have established total control over Afghanistan, with the last remaining holdout falling in Panjshir. Nevertheless, there are more questions than answers. An important question is whether the ‘global war on terror’ has been enshrined in the fabric of history.

Too much turmoil, terrorist firing

The latest incident in Afghanistan’s tragic history has resulted in several thousand people being displaced, and many thousands forced to flee the country. However, there remains a high threat, including the presence of several new terrorist organizations, such as Daesh, ISIS-K, Al Qaeda, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), ETIM-K (A). Militant group from Xinjiang, China), the Fidayeen Mahas, all of whom are the enduring legacy of 20 years of foreign occupation.

Meanwhile, the Taliban announced the establishment of a 33-member interim government led by Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund as the caretaker prime minister. Key appointments include Abdul Ghani Baradar as Acting Deputy Prime Minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani as Acting Interior Minister, Mullah Mohammad Yacoub as Acting Defense Minister and Amir Khan Muttaki as Acting Foreign Minister. Despite earlier announcements by the Taliban, the government is, at present, only a Taliban creation, and heavily Pashtun in character. Pakistan has a few key cards, given the lead role, assigned to its opponents, Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Umar’s son Mohammad Yacob. The new government is unlikely to be baffled by the fact that some members of the interim government are on various terrorist lists, including the United Nations and the United States.

There may exist a great deal of hands-on talk about the choices made, but on deeper reflection, it will be clear that the original sin was the US agreement with the Taliban last year, which gave the group a degree of international recognition. Many more aftershocks can also be expected. The hopes of a pragmatic Afghanistan behind a religious disguise may thus prove highly futile.

What was achieved in Afghanistan, despite two decades of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) occupation, can be summed up in three words: a continuing disaster. The destruction of terrorist networks – essentially that of the Al Qaeda network – was an objective that was not achieved. Terrorist networks went underground for some time, but many new forms such as Islamic State and its many branches flourish not only in Afghanistan but also in many different regions of the world.

India’s engagement

The mask of the attempt to impose democracy in Afghanistan is currently exposed, but perhaps the real damage has been done to the very idea of ​​democracy itself. Spending trillions of dollars won’t stop this flawed effort. India’s efforts with regard to the economic development of Afghanistan have been fruitless, and its reputation has suffered permanent damage. More serious is the fact that India’s relations with the new Taliban leadership remain strained, first with the Northern Alliance, and later with the Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani administrations. This has put India in a different category than many of Afghanistan’s other neighbors such as China and Russia. Pakistan clearly falls into a different category as the ‘patron saint’ of the new regime.

It is said that those who do not heed the lessons of history are doomed to destruction. Afghanistan has in the past been a graveyard of ambitions of many countries, especially Great Britain and Russia. From the days of the Great Games between Russia and Great Britain, and through the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, Afghanistan was considered strategically important. Its strategic value has only increased subsequently. America’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan is a blow not only to America, but to all those who supported it.

Beginning with the Donald Trump administration’s decision to begin talks with the Taliban – and not with the government led by Mr. Ghani – for the withdrawal of US troops that not only legitimized the Taliban and acknowledged their dominant role in Afghanistan’s affairs Yes, America has made mistakes one after the other.

dual roles

Its unwavering trust in Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the maker of the Taliban, which has toppled the US, pretending to be an ally, is another. The Taliban are grateful to the ISI and it was hardly a surprise that ISI chief Faiz Hameed was there to congratulate Mullah Baradar on the flight into Kandahar. For the past two decades, the Taliban’s safe havens are in Pakistan and they are not only known to the ISI, but also nurtured by it. Even the US knew that the Shura Council of the Taliban is based in Quetta (Balochistan).

The nearly dual role of Qatar, another key US ally that has nurtured the Taliban leadership in recent years, is also under scrutiny. Qatar has been known to play both sides, overtaking Saudi Arabia (and emerging as the new base of West Asian politics). While regarded as a US ally, it follows its own brand of politics – including acting as a shoulder to the Taliban. Therefore, not one, but at least three US administrations must share the blame for the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

eyes on the pie

The collapse of US involvement in Afghanistan, as well as the rise of the Taliban with its access to Pakistan, China, Russia, and even Iran, is likely to set in motion a train development that could change the region’s geopolitics. Is. Russia, although no longer the power it once was, is currently trying to increase its influence in Eurasia, and the Afghan crisis gives it an opportunity. China, which envisions Asia’s dominance as the first step in its attempt to become the world’s number one power, sees Afghanistan as a reward from both a geo-economic and geo-political point of view. Watching Afghanistan’s mineral wealth is just one aspect; Its main objective is to make its Belt and Road Initiative a truly viable entity, and expand its reach to the Indian Ocean without relying entirely on Pakistan.

Meanwhile, several West Asian countries are assessing the situation in Afghanistan to see how best to take advantage of the fluid situation. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have already shown their hands. Saudi Arabia is eager to get involved in preventing Iran from expanding its influence in Afghanistan. Iran is keen to strengthen its hold in Afghanistan to ensure its security. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which have very poor relations with Afghanistan, are unwilling to maintain peace with the Taliban. The US plan to enhance regional security/connectivity through a new quadrilateral diplomatic forum, meanwhile, could prove to be dead before it even begins.

Road to New Delhi

India’s concerns regarding Afghanistan have as much to do with the geopolitical situation as it is to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a crucible for pro-terrorism forces that can affect India’s security. Therefore, it should be seriously considered how to remove the unfavorable constellation of the emerging powers. One possibility is for India to act as a mediator between the various nations eager to engage themselves in Afghanistan, and create a formula that will help maintain Afghanistan’s neutrality and ensure that it moves towards South Asia. Be a buffer zone to check Chinese expansionism.

Seven decades ago, India played such a mediating role in bringing about temporary peace in the then Indo-China, now Vietnam. It is important for India to secure an in-principle agreement to ensure the unity and integrity of Afghanistan and in return to maintain the neutrality of Afghanistan.

Of all the countries currently included in Afghanistan, India probably has the best credentials to act as an honest broker; India should choose someone who can act like a ‘Zellig-like figure’ to ensure that the final verdict is something that will ensure peace in the region and prevent any major upheaval in South Asia, Will stop both Pakistan and China.

MK Narayanan is former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal