After the referendum: the challenges of grabbing power in Tunisia

the story So Far:Tunisian voters have approved a new constitution which will turn the country back into the presidential system, Institutionalizing the one-man rule of President Kais Syed, who last year suspended the elected parliament and granted himself more powers. According to preliminary results, 94.6% of voters in the referendum supported the new constitution, with only 30% voting. Most of the opposition parties, which called Mr. Syed’s regime a coup, boycotted the vote. While Mr. Saeed has welcomed the result, his critics have warned that the new constitution will erode any democratic gains Tunisia has made since the 2011 Arab Spring (Jasmine) revolution and throw the country back into an authoritarian slide. Will push

What happened to the Arab Spring?

Among the countries that saw popular protests toppled the dictatorship in 2011, Tunisia was the only one that saw a successful transition to democracy. In December 2010, protests against the Arab Spring began in Tunisia, which led to the fall of the regime of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who had been in power since 1987. Ben Ali had to flee the country due to the massive rebellion. Soon, the protests spread to other Arab countries such as Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. While protesters brought down Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year-long dictatorship in Egypt, the revolution did not last long in that country.

In 2013, the military seized power to topple the elected government of President Mohamed Morsi, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. In Libya, protests against Muhammad Gaddafi slid into a civil war, which saw a military intervention by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO intervention toppled the Gaddafi regime (the Libyan leader was later assassinated), but the country fell into anarchy and anarchy that continues to haunt it today.

In Bahrain, a Shia-majority country ruled by the Sunni monarchy, neighboring Saudi Arabia sent troops to quell protests in Manama’s Pearl Square. In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh had to abdicate, but the country fell into a civil war, leading to the rise of Shia Houthi rebels, who now control the capital, Sanaa, and subsequent Saudi attacks on the poor country. In Syria, protests turned into a proxy civil war, in which rivals of President Bashar al-Assad backed their enemies, and his allies, including Hezbollah, Iran and Russia, backed the regime. It looks like President Assad has won the civil war for now. Tunisia was the only country that saw a peaceful transition to democracy, and with the new constitution, it is seeing another transition.

What caused the political crisis in Tunisia?

The 2014 constitution established a mixed parliamentary and presidential system. Both the President and Parliament were directly elected by the electorate. The president was to oversee military and foreign affairs, while the prime minister, elected with the support of a majority of parliamentarians, was in charge of the day-to-day affairs of governance.

In the democratic elections, the Islamist Ennahda Party, which has ideological links to the pan-Islamic Muslim Brotherhood movement, emerged as a main political force in the country, troubling the secular sections. Politics remained fragmented. There were nine governments in the country between 2011 and 2021. Its economy was already in bad shape, and the COVID-19 crisis made it worse. Tunisia has the highest per capita COVID death rate in the world. Protests against the government had begun in July last year amid a growing economic and health crisis. The protesters stormed the offices of the ruling party Ennahda.

As the unrest spread, Mr. Saeed walked in, sacking Ennahda-backed Prime Minister Hikem Mechicho and suspending Parliament, plunging the country into a constitutional crisis. Under the 2014 constitution such crises must be settled by a Constitutional Court, but the court had not yet been constituted. This gave the President a free hand to rule the country by decrees. He declared a state of emergency, appointed a prime minister to run the government, dissolved the suspended parliament earlier this year, as well as proceeded to rewrite the constitution, giving himself more powers. Of.

What are the major changes in the new constitution?

In March 2021, less than two years after winning the presidential election, Mr. Sayeed expressed concern over the country’s revolutionary parliamentary system. According to him, the new constitution will protect the values ​​of the 2011 revolution – bread, freedom and dignity. While it retains most of the individual liberties guaranteed by the 2014 constitution, the new charter seeks to move the country back to the presidential system, while curtailing the powers of parliament. The President will have the final authority to form the government, name ministers (without Parliament’s approval), appoint judges and introduce laws directly to the legislature. This would make it practically impossible for lawmakers to remove the president from office.

Over the past year, President Saeed has tightened his control over the judiciary, dismissed several judges, and took over the country’s election body, the Supreme Independent Election Commission (ISIE). Earlier, nine members of ISIE were appointed by the Parliament. Now, the President can directly appoint the members. He has left no doubt as to how he plans to rule the country.

The Geneva-based International Commission of Advocacy has said the new constitution lacks the necessary checks on the president’s powers and will “return Tunisia to an autocratic constitutional order.”

Has the revolution been undone?

If the sudden move to Islamize the country by the ruling Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt created a momentum for a counter-revolution, which the military seized to grab power, in Tunisia, the parliamentary system’s failure to address the country’s enormous problems set the stage for the power of the President.

The referendum is clearly a victory for Mr. Sayeed who can now claim legitimacy for his one-man rule. But the low turnout, despite the regime’s high-decibel campaign and boycotts by most political parties with substantial public influence, shows Mr. Sayeed is still on a slippery slope. Compared to other countries affected by the Arab Spring protests, Tunisia managed its transition well. But the ongoing political turmoil shows that the country has not yet recovered from the chaos of the post-revolutionary period. With a battered economy and a fragmented politics, Mr. Sayeed could have had a hard time garnering power, even with a new constitution.

• Ben Ali had to flee the country in the face of the mass revolt.

• Tunisia was the only country that saw a peaceful transition to democracy, and with the new constitution, it is seeing another transition.

• With a battered economy and a fragmented politics, President Kais Saied may find it difficult to garner power, even with a new constitution.