Politics

Amarinder, BJP, Congress, AAP, SAD: How repeal of agriculture laws could affect Punjab elections?

November 20, 2021
Bharat Times

Farmers at Tikri border celebrating after Modi government’s decision to repeal agricultural laws. ani photo

Form of words:

Chandigarh: The Narendra Modi government’s decision to withdraw three controversial agriculture laws is likely to have an impact on the electoral dynamics of Punjab, which is expected to benefit the most from the Amarinder-BJP alliance.

Amarinder, who resigned from the Congress earlier this month, had announced that he was ready to forge a pre-poll alliance with the BJP if the saffron party found a solution to the farmers’ agitation.

Now, with the agriculture laws out of the way, the BJP is hoping to emerge as another option for the voters with the help of Amarinder. Apart from the ruling Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BSP alliance are in the race for power in the state, where elections are due early next year.

Here’s how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Friday announcement could affect the electoral prospects of various political players.

BJP

With the announcement of the cancellation on the day of Gurpurab, Modi has tried to get the BJP out of the jungle in the state. The party now hopes to take credit for correcting a “mistake” and decided to bow down to farmers as it aims to woo the Sikhs, who form the majority vote bank in Punjab.

“In the wake of prolonged protests by a section of farmers, the Prime Minister had displayed exceptional generosity in repeal of three agricultural laws,” BJP’s national general secretary from Punjab Tarun Chugh said in a statement on Friday.

Farmers had made it almost impossible for BJP leaders Campaign Or even hold meetings with their workers in the state. While Friday’s announcement will bring a sigh of relief to the BJP leaders, the party, which has never been a major political player in Punjab, will find it difficult, if not impossible, to win an election on its own.

Last year, the SAD, one of the oldest allies of the BJP, severed ties with the party over agricultural laws.

As an ally of the SAD, the BJP contested 23 of the 117-seat assembly and three of the 13 parliamentary seats. The saffron party’s hold in Punjab is limited to urban and semi-urban areas and districts such as Pathankot, Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur, where Hindu voters dominate.

The vote share of BJP in Punjab has always been less than 10 per cent. In the 2004 parliamentary elections itself, the party’s vote share increased to 10.5 percent. In the 2012 assembly elections, the party got 7.18 percent votes. In 2017, it came down to 5.4%. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 8.7 percent of the total votes.

Even though the BJP wants PM Modi to be seen as a “friend” of Sikhs, the party lacks prominent state leaders.

Read also: PM Modi chose party’s interests in UP and Punjab over farmers, says member of SC panel on repeal

Amarinder Singh

two months after that resigned In September, as Chief Minister of Punjab, Captain Amarinder Singh announced a new party and talked about a possible alliance with BJP.

B J P appears inclined Towards an alliance, and the former CM has had two meetings with Home Minister Amit Shah since his resignation as CM. On Friday, Amarinder thanked the top leadership of the BJP for repealing the agricultural laws.

Amarinder also on November 2 announced Formation of a new party – Punjab Lok Congress. However, many of his Congress colleagues have not jumped on Amarinder’s bandwagon.

Amarinder’s stance against agricultural laws and his support for farmers while he was chief minister gives him an edge in rural areas. Since he continues to talk about security concerns in Punjab, his appeal is expected to be higher among Hindu voters in urban areas.

The Amarinder-BJP alliance could help garner the urban Hindu vote.

Dr Pramod Kumar of Institute of Development and Communication, Chandigarh said, “Amarinder-BJP alliance will be able to garner some Hindu votes in Punjab.”

Amarinder is hoping to bring in several disgruntled Congress, AAP and Akali leaders into his party in the coming days.

Sources in the Amarinder camp said the exodus from the Congress would start after the release of the list of candidates as many sitting MLAs and even ministers could be among those who fail to get tickets.

in one Interview With ThePrint last month, Amarinder indicated that he wanted to forge political alliances with farmer leaders as well. After the agitation ends, Amarinder is expected to pull some farmer leaders to contest the elections.

Read also: Modi government in its 2 terms has now repealed 2 controversial legislations before the assembly elections.

Congress

The possible end of the agitation has dealt more than one blow to the ruling Congress, which can no longer criticize the Modi government on the issue of agricultural laws.

“The Amarinder-BJP alliance will prove to be a big spoiler for the Congress as it takes away a piece from the vote share that the (Charanjit Singh) Channi government was wooing. Also, the big victory of farmers will replace religion-caste issues with genuine ones,” Pramod Kumar said.

“What the parties have to offer in terms of medicines, education and health, among other pending farmers’ concerns, will come to the fore. The two factors that the Congress was paying attention to – first the Dalit chief minister and profanity – will go into the background,” he said.

The only political gain they can get is by joining the agitation of some farmer leaders before the elections.

Meanwhile, Punjab CM Charanjit Singh Channi welcomed PM Modi’s decision to repeal the “three black laws”.

Read also: BJP leaders call repeal of agricultural laws a ‘bitter pill’, but UP, Punjab show better prospects

AAP

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which emerged as the second largest party in the state in the 2017 Punjab Assembly elections, is expected to benefit as a large support group among farmers was also AAP supporters. Sources said the party may also find a CM candidate from among the farmer leaders.

Pramod Kumar, however, said AAP is unlikely to make an impact in the electoral state. “Parties with the small stuff also have little effect. AAP has always misunderstood Punjab as another Delhi where migrant population can be lured for free. With the end of the agitation, the support and support that the protesters have received from AAP is just that. Voters will move fast on genuine issues where AAP has nothing much to offer.”

Akali-BSP

The repeal of agricultural laws may provide relief to the Akali-BSP alliance, which was also finding it difficult to campaign across the state amid protests. The Akali Dal was seen as a party that supported the BJP when the Agriculture Act was enacted.

“Now, the Akalis will be able to retrieve and reach out to their cadre. Also, the end of the movement brings all the political parties on the same plane in a sense. Everyone is equally guilty of backing agricultural laws in some way or the other,” Pramod Kumar said.

“The Congress in its manifesto had notified it in Delhi, and the Akalis were part of the cabinet that approved it. Now, the focus will be on what these parties promise to solve other serious issues of farmers in Punjab and what road map do these parties give for restructuring agriculture in the state,” Pramod Kumar said.

(Edited by Neha Mahajan)

Read also: 5 reasons for the victory of farmers in the fight for agricultural laws against the Modi government

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