‘An in-depth study of the various outcome documents, especially the Joint Communiqué of the FMM, is indicative of ASEAN’s courageous efforts to move forward through transformative changes in the current decade’ | Photo Credit: AP
If Southeast Asia is the heart of the Indo-Pacific, then the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 56th Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (FMM), ministerial conference to be held in Jakarta, Indonesia in mid-July 2023, and other related regional meetings, are the best barometers to check the latest dynamics of the region. The elaborate institutional architecture created by ASEAN has become an inclusive platform that attracts countries from near and far, with all major players (the United States, China, India, Japan and Russia) engaged in shaping strategic competition in the vast region stretching from East Africa to the South Pacific.
Vision and Challenges
A thorough study of the various outcome documents, especially the joint communiqué of the FMM, is indicative of ASEAN’s courageous efforts to move forward through transformative changes in the current decade: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic downturn, the Ukraine war, climate change, and above all, the Cold War-type confrontation between the United States and China. As the current chair, Indonesia has portrayed ASEAN as a “centre of development”. It is a well-crafted vision with three inter-related dimensions: creating a political community that ensures regional peace and a just, democratic and harmonious environment; an economic community focused on achieving a well-integrated and connected regional economy within the global economic system; and a socio-cultural community to enhance the quality of life of ASEAN citizens as well as the sustainable development of the region.
Addressing fellow foreign ministers on 11 July, Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister and President Retno Marsudi argued that ASEAN’s ability to manage regional and global dynamics rests on two key ingredients that foster its unity and centrality. First, it must maintain its credibility by following the ASEAN Charter, and second, it must remain in the driver’s seat while navigating regional dynamics. As laudable as these goals are, they are becoming less and less attainable. ASEAN’s internal differences on issues such as Myanmar continue to come out in public. Its desire to lead the region and shape its agenda is under threat due to strained relations between the US and China.
China has close political and economic ties with ASEAN countries, and at least three of them, namely Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, are virtual dependencies. While the Philippines has recently become more vocal about its claims in the South China Sea, the central players, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are all friendly towards Beijing. This explains why none of them have raised their voice against China’s delaying strategy in negotiating an enforceable code of conduct with respect to the South China Sea. For several years, ASEAN and China have called for “an early conclusion of an effective and concrete Code of Conduct”; They did so this year as well, but they are content to leave the matter at that. No deadline has been indicated. It is difficult to find such an example of diplomatic duplicity.
Despite Washington’s recent efforts to revive constructive discussions through high-level visits, ASEAN also looks helplessly at the heated debate between the US and Chinese governments. China’s contention is that the US is solely responsible for the deteriorating relations as it consistently refuses to acknowledge and engage with China’s ‘peaceful rise’. On the other hand, the US is no longer willing to turn a blind eye to Chinese aggression and coercion in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The latest expression of this thinking appeared in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s Vilnius summit communique, which stated, “The People’s Republic of China’s stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.”
Concerned by “rising geopolitical tensions in the region”, the ASEAN prefers to promote the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Its four identified areas (Maritime Cooperation, Connectivity, United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and Economic Cooperation) are of great importance to the region. However, predictably, despite confirmation of support for AOIP by ASEAN partners, its actual implementation remains a matter of concern.
ASEAN reiterates its centrality, but it appears vulnerable when the grouping is unable to build unity on the most sensitive issue, the situation in Myanmar, which has led to ASEAN banning one member-state (Myanmar) from all its political-level discussions. In the run-up to the FMM, Thailand, in defiance of official ASEAN policy, conducted its own dialogue with the military government, which allowed the Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister to meet with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, much to the inconvenience of the ASEAN Chair, Indonesia. The joint communique acknowledged the division in ranks. This disagreement could not be masked by the regular reaffirmation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) made in April 2021. Without unity, ASEAN centrality loses its credibility.
India’s role
The importance of ASEAN meetings for India is evident when External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar preferred to represent India at the ministerial conference and other regional dialogues, instead accompanying the prime minister on his visits to France and the United Arab Emirates in early July. He pointedly noted the importance of a “strong and integrated” ASEAN in the emerging dynamics of the Indo-Pacific, and highlighted the convergence between the AOIP and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative. To take forward the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and ASEAN, he suggested that both sides work in new areas such as cyber, financial and maritime security domains.
Although ASEAN does not appear to have made much progress, and no new ground has been broken, its persistence in dialogue internally and externally has kept the geopolitical temperature from rising. The next ASEAN summit will be held in Jakarta in September 2023. Hopefully, this will bring more clarity on the way forward to address the challenges facing the sector.
Rajeev Bhatia is a Distinguished Fellow of Gateway House. A former ambassador and author, he is a commentator on developments in the Indo-Pacific