Asia’s Covid-19 success stories reflect on post-vaccination steps

That’s because cases were rising by several hundred every day after some restrictions were eased, raising fears of hospital bed shortages.

“We believe it is more prudent to pause now, do our best to slow the spread where we can,” Lawrence Wong, co-chair of Singapore’s Covid-19 Task Force, said at Friday’s briefing.

The aim of widespread vaccination was to bring the long-awaited march back to normalcy. But for Asia-Pacific countries, which have tame COVID-19 by implementing stringent controls, entering a post-vaccination world is complicated.

Successes in suppressing major outbreaks in places such as Japan, South Korea and Australia conditioned officials and citizens for small numbers of infections and deaths. The relatively clean record encouraged people to adhere to restrictions through long waits for countries’ vaccine shipments to arrive.

Now there are notes. Singapore leads the field in the administration of shots, but Japan, South Korea and Australia are not far behind – up to 70% to 80% of vaccinations by November, reaching or even exceeding levels in the US, UK and parts of Western Europe. To reach higher levels.

In recent days, the most populous states of Japan and Australia released road maps for easing restrictions as more people are fully vaccinated. South Korean officials have increasingly spoken of adopting a policy of living with the virus.

The phased approach of wealthy Asia-Pacific countries reverted to the usual contrasts with the more aggressive US reopening. This more closely resembles the approaches taken in much of Europe. Face mask will be there. Gatherings will be limited even among fully vaccinated people. Social distancing will not go away.

Where Asia-Pacific nations differ, in their susceptibility to a slight increase in infection, is a side effect of their earlier relative success.

According to Our World in Data, a project based at Oxford University, the US has reported around 122,000 cases per million people, 105,000 in the UK and 82,000 in Europe. In contrast, Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea collectively reported 32,000 cases per million.

The death rate in those four countries is about a tenth that of the US or the UK. Some of the contrasts are even more dramatic. Singapore and Minnesota are home to roughly the same number of people, but the former have had 58 Covid-19 deaths, the latter nearly 7,900.

Fully vaccinated people are much less likely to be hospitalized or die from COVID-19 than non-vaccinated people with similar risk factors. But this realization could pose challenges in Asia-Pacific countries accustomed to minimal numbers, say health experts.

“If you open too early, you end up in a stop-start situation,” said Alexandra Martiniuk, professor of epidemiology at the University of Sydney’s School of Public Health. “Consistency often works well.”

Officials in Singapore said they would hold off on reopening plans for at least a few weeks to monitor trends and compare data with countries such as the UK and Israel, where infections are rising rapidly after the easing of restrictions. Raised. Officials aim to keep serious illness and death rates low and avoid returning to measures such as more lockdowns.

Meanwhile, Singapore’s testing protocol has been extended and stringent isolation requirements in medical facilities are relaxed to free up hospital capacity as cases rise. Singapore is now detecting hundreds of cases daily and the numbers are expected to rise over the next two weeks. Till Monday, 57 Covid-19 patients required supplemental oxygen and eight were in critical condition.

Japan’s road map calls for testing as soon as next month, allowing restaurants to open longer hours and serving alcohol and baseball stadiums to accept more spectators. Vaccinated people will be allowed to travel, eat in large groups and visit relatives in nursing homes – activities that are now discouraged or restricted.

But if the infection increases then the public is likely to panic. At the end of August, after a stretch when daily infections rose to nearly 25,000 – three times the earlier peak – nearly 61% of respondents to a Fuji News Network poll said they were in hot spots like Tokyo with an emergency in effect. Want to expand the position. . Three out of four said Japan should be prepared to introduce a European-style lockdown with mandatory restrictions on movement if the need arises.

Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales, unveiled a “road map to freedom” last week. Stay-at-home orders for fully vaccinated people will be lifted on Monday, when the vaccinated share of the population exceeds 70%. Up to five vaccinated people will be allowed to gather in private, and domestic travel will be allowed again. Stores, hair salons and gyms will be able to open with social distancing.

But officials said a larger outbreak could change the map. “We can’t pretend we’ll have zero cases around Australia with Delta,” said head of state Gladys Berejiklian.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison last month ratified a gradual strategy under which restrictions would be eased when 70% of Australians aged 16 and over would be vaccinated. When this figure reaches 80%, the lockdown becomes rare, and some domestic and international travel gradually resumes.

“We learned from looking at countries that have lifted all restrictions that there is no ‘Independence Day,'” said the Doherty Institute, whose COVID-19 modeling informed the national government’s plan.

In South Korea, of which most 52 million citizens have received at least one shot – and where officials expect 70% to have received two by next month – tighter restrictions have been extended to the Seoul metropolitan area.

“Even if we achieve high vaccination rates, if we cannot keep prevention, the return to regular life will be delayed,” South Korea’s prime minister said on Friday. But recently the limit for group gatherings was raised from four to six people, if few are vaccinated.

Yik-Ying Teo, dean of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said Asian countries should be able to control outbreaks and suppress variants in the form of vaccinations, even if they experience few infection waves. Do it.

“Until countries collectively reach high vaccination rates, the world will continue to need some safe management like wearing masks and social distancing,” he said.