Months of electoral permutations and combinations by politicians, countless algorithms devised by election pundits, macro- and micro-level variables at play, as well as the sum of pros and cons assessed by voters across five Indian states today are the sum of a simple math test. Faces: Whose numbers add up to?
The counting of votes for the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur will lay the road for the future not only for these states but for the country’s politics in many ways. The elections, especially in Uttar Pradesh, will signal whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be able to bring the Bharatiya Janata Party and allies to power at the Center in 2024 for an incredible third straight term, or make concerted efforts of one . The ever-changing opposition faction eventually prevails. Politicians and voters will also be watching in the states to be held soon.
Election Commission officials say over 50,000 people have been deployed for counting of votes in around 1,200 halls across five states and the COVID protocol will be followed during the process that begins at 8 am amid tight security.
While initial restrictions on election rallies were imposed by the Election Commission due to the third wave of COVID-19, the campaign peaked in February with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union ministers and top leaders including BJP chief ministers, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra . Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav of Samajwadi Party from Congress, Arvind Kejriwal from AAP and others staged roadshows. The pots of choice were boiling in Uttar Pradesh from eclectic dishes consisting of complex mixtures like ‘Tehri’ of Hindutva, law and order, caste ideas, bulldozer campaigns, the problem of stray cattle etc., with the evolution to an ‘eromba’, in Manipur Ingredient as fighting extremism, repeal of AFSPA, etc – as found by the team of News18 journalists who covered these states extensively from the ground up, and also checked out these and other recipes from local cuisine.
The BJP came to power in these assembly elections in four of the five states – UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur – as well as at the Centre. Observers say that this was both a boon and a curse. It had the advantage of being able to place before voters a report card of the work done by their “dual-engined governments” over the past five years. But it was also against potential voter fatigue, some unfulfilled and only partially fulfilled promises, unexpected challenges like the COVID pandemic, and relentless attacks from rivals.
Uttar Pradesh
Exit polls, however, indicate that there is a historic victory for the BJP led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in UP. If this happens, it will be the first time since 1985 that a party will get the command of the state for two consecutive terms. The fierce battle of the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party could mean a narrower gap between the two sides as compared to the ‘saffron’ of 2017. The performance of both the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress could be worse than their poor performance five years ago. But it will still be a victory for the BJP’s powerful concoction of election pitches involving Hindutva, “80-20”, “bulldozer”, casteist ideas, law enforcement, and development. Rivals like the SP and the Congress attacked the ruling party on a range of issues including inflation, unemployment, tackling Covid, the problem of stray cattle and farmers’ agitation. The harvesting of a group of farmers in Lakhimpur Kheri was also highlighted by the opposition as an accused in the case of Ashish Mishra, son of Union Minister Ajay Mishra.
Voter turnout was 62.43% in 58 assembly constituencies in western Uttar Pradesh in the initial phase of the massive seven-phase election on February 10. In the second phase of polling on February 14, 64.42 per cent voter turnout was recorded for 55 assembly constituencies. The third phase on February 20 saw 62.28% voter turnout for 59 seats, including parts of the so-called “Yadav Belt”. In the fourth round on February 23, in which 59 seats went to polls in state capital Lucknow, around 61.52% voter turnout was recorded. In the fifth phase on February 27, 57.32 per cent voter turnout was recorded for major seats like Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Amethi and Rae Bareli for 61 seats. Around 55% polling was held in the sixth phase on March 3 in a total of 57 seats, including Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s Gorakhpur Urban. A little over 56% turnout was recorded in the seventh and final round on March 7 for 54 seats, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi.
Punjab
Observers say only the Congress is to blame in Punjab, where the comedy of its mistakes ahead of the elections may have given Aam Aadmi Party chief ministerial face and former stand-up star Bhagwant Mann a punchline right in the form . A sweeping victory, as exit polls show.
Nearly 72 per cent voter turnout was recorded in Punjab, where polling was held for all 117 assembly seats on February 20.
AAP’s victory in Punjab, which is also in power in Delhi, will give the party a chance to implement its governance model across the state for the first time.
Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi experiment to oust former Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh in favor of Navjot Singh Sidhu, then to fuel another power struggle, before electing Charanjit Singh Channi as stopgap CM and eventually for elections The face of the party, while unsuccessful. Analysts argue that in time to quell the sharp infighting, the reversal seems to have taken place.
The Captain shook hands with the BJP, but no major loss is likely. Some polls have indicated that a faction led by the Akali Dal may give a tough fight to the Congress for the second spot. The Samyukta Samaj Morcha—an umbrella federation of 22 farmers’ unions, which made its first attempt to contest elections after the 2020-21 agri-law movement that resonated the most in Punjab—seems that the state’s electoral ground is very rocky. Is.
Uttarakhand
The youngest state in the mix does not like repeat governments. But, some exit polls indicate that Uttarakhand may make an exception for the BJP this time. Other surveys have made no bones about the possibility of a fractured mandate, which could indicate some high drama once the results are out. Both BJP and Congress have prepared their own strategy for such an incident. In such a situation, BSP, Uttarakhand Kranti Dal and independent candidates can be important.
In the single-phase election held here on February 14, 65.4 per cent voter turnout was recorded, down slightly from 65.6 per cent in 2017.
The BJP removed two of its chief ministers last year and finally brought in Pushkar Singh Dhami, who has primarily relied on Hindutva in favor of voters.
After fierce infighting, the Congress did not present the chief minister’s face for the elections, but former chief minister Harish Rawat, who also heads the party’s campaign committee, is considered by many observers as the most likely candidate in the event of victory. . Which seems like a daunting task at the moment.
Goa
Resort politics has already made a comeback on Goa’s beautiful beaches, after exit polls predicted a re-run of 2017 results with the BJP and the Congress in a different possibility. According to sources, both the parties have deployed their respective best ‘horse whispers’ while their leaders accuse each other of attempted poaching.
Goa has seen a change of power mainly between the Congress and the BJP. However, election observers believe that smaller parties and newcomers are likely to play an important role in government formation this time around. Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress have created a buzz by entering the poll contest here, but the noise is unlikely to yield much.
A party needs 21 seats to win a decisive victory in the 40-member assembly. In the 2017 elections, the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats, but its strength was reduced to two after several MLAs switched to the BJP, which managed to form the government in alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP). doing. and Goa Forward Party (GFP).
After the death of his predecessor Manohar Parrikar, BJP’s Pramod Sawant became the chief minister in 2019 and removed two MGP ministers from the state cabinet. The MGP contested this time in alliance with the TMC, but it doesn’t seem to have ruled out supporting either the BJP or the Congress. Party chief Sudin Dhavalikar, however, ruled out any possibility of supporting Sawant as the chief minister. Congress is also reportedly in touch with AAP.
The ruling BJP, which has been battling a 10-year anti-incumbency wave, also faced internal rebellion. Manohar Parrikar’s son Utpal Parrikar and former CM Laxmikant Parsekar contested as independents after being denied ticket for the February 14 election, which saw a turnout of around 79% in the state.
Manipur
In Manipur, exit polls have given an edge to the Bharatiya Janata Party. The ruling BJP and its two allies – the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF), contested the elections to the 60-seat assembly separately this time. All of them are part of the BJP-led anti-Congress coalition of regional parties – the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the Northeast unit of the National Democratic Alliance at the Centre, led by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. So the ripple effects of the election results in Manipur will also be felt in neighboring states such as Meghalaya, which has a government including the BJP and the NPP, Nagaland in which the BJP and NPF are in ruling formation among others, and BJP-ruled Tripura: the next in all three states. Elections will be held every year.
The issues of lack of development, extremism, and AFSPA repeal seem to have struck a chord with voters, as News18 found on the ground. Some voters were dissatisfied with the BJP but did not see any alternative. Some were happy with the government for curbing bandhs and militancy to some extent and bringing some development. The aspirations are different even in the valley and the less privileged hills.
The polling, held in two phases on February 28 and March 5, saw over 88% and 76% turnout respectively.
The BJP, led by former BSF member, footballer, journalist, Congress leader and now Chief Minister N Biren Singh, has said it will get more than 40 of the 60 assembly seats. The NPP has insisted that this time it will be the king and not the kingmaker. Congress has promised “change” without actually explaining it. Many are hopeful that this time Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United) will make its mark. Its candidates include rebel and former top police officer from BJP, Congress, etc. Star candidate Thounaojam Brinda.
The Congress had won 28 seats here in 2017. But BJP came to power in the state for the first time in alliance with various parties including NPP and NPF despite securing 21 seats. Since several Congress MLAs later switched sides, the party this time swore allegiance to its candidates to keep its flock together.
read all breaking news, today’s fresh news And Assembly Election Live Updates Here.