While there is nothing surprising about AUKUS, there are advantages to a Pacific-centric orientation in the context of China.
A tripartite security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States of America (AUKUS) remains under discussion. At the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, US President Joe Biden bluntly told his French counterpart, President Emmanuel Macron, that the Australian submarine deal with France was handled clumsily, when he tried to lubricate the torn wings. A reassuring France is bound to come eventually as the trans-Atlantic partnership is important to both sides. With regard to Australia, however, the kerfuffle over the canceled submarine deal continues to dog ties. France is furious at Australia’s actions, following Mr Macron’s recent remarks at the G20 press conference on 1 November.
ASEAN factor
There is also a case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) split over the origins of AUKUS. Southeast Asian nations have previously been unable to agree on other issues, such as developments in Myanmar or the strategic threats posed by China. While AUKUS is clearly an effort by the US to strengthen regional security, including securing Australia’s maritime trade, any sudden increase in Australia’s naval capabilities is bound to create unease in the region. In a statement on 20 September, Australia had explicitly reassured the area of its commitment to the ASEAN centrality and the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty as well as the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Treaty.
Even though Australia has denied that AUKUS is a defense alliance, it prevents China from taking advantage of ASEAN concerns as the likes of Hobson face off amid a US-China regional rivalry. According to Shelly, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman has criticized AUKUS as an “exclusive bloc” and a “clique” that seriously undermines regional peace and security and reflects a Cold War mentality. The AUC is based on the shared commitment of its three members to deepen diplomatic, security and defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Although not explicitly stated, the rise of China, particularly its rapid militarization and aggressive behavior, is undoubtedly the trigger.
decades old partnership
It is no surprise, then, that the US, UK and Australia come together. The US and UK have enjoyed a special defense partnership for decades. In World War II, America and Britain fought together with Australia as allies. The US shared nuclear weapons technology with the UK in early 1943 following the merger of the latter’s nuclear weapons program with the American Manhattan Project. The first UK trial was held in 1952 in the Montebello Islands in Australia, a country that still respects the British monarch as head of state, whose powers are exercised constitutionally through his representative, the Governor-General of Australia. is done sporadically. To suggest that these three nations have come together for a new defense pact is obvious. They have always been coalition partners.
engagement with China
For the three countries, their relations with China have recently been marked by contempt. Australia, in particular, had for years subordinated its strategic assessment of China to transactional commercial interests. Due to China’s concern, its policy of deliberately targeting Australian exports has not yielded the desired results. Instead of cow-toing, the plucky Australian character has prompted Canberra to support a fundamental overhaul of its China policy. Attempts to trouble Australia have had the opposite effect.
China’s naval expansion and far-reaching invasions into ocean space may have forced Australia to rethink its defense and security policies, which should come as no surprise. In early 1942, during World War II, three Japanese midget submarines, launched from five larger submarines that served as launching platforms, secretly attacked Sydney Harbor. Although the damage and casualties from the attack were limited, the brazen episode of Darwin in 1942, combined by the bombing of Darwin by Japanese warplanes, drove Australia home that its remote geographic location did not guarantee its protection against direct maritime threats. can give.
In 2017 and 2019, the Talisman Saber exercise (a biennial exercise led by Australia or the US), conducted by the Royal Australian Navy, was tagged by a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). dongdiao-Class Type 815 Auxiliary General Intelligence (AGI) vessel. China also used a similar vessel in 2018 to oversee the Multilateral Rim of the Pacific Ocean (RIMPAC) exercise.
These events have no doubt cast a long shadow on Australia’s business and strategic interests.
‘Move On’ Is The Key
The transfer of sensitive submarine technology by the US to the UK is a sui generis Arrangements based on their long-standing Mutual Defense Agreement of 1958. The AUKUS Joint Statement unequivocally acknowledges that the trilateral defense relationship goes back decades, and that AUKUS aims to advance joint capabilities and interactivity. The word “forward” is important, because defense cooperation already exists. Cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies are other areas covered, in addition to underwater capabilities. The latter is the most visible part of the agreement, and potentially, a game-changer.
Elements of the broader agenda provide opportunities for the US, UK and Australia to include regional countries. There are clear indications that New Zealand is open to cooperation with AUKUS in such areas, particularly cyber, despite its anti-nuclear record. The three countries will also play a key role in US-led programs such as Build Back Better World, Blue Dot Network and Clean Network to meet the challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
a comparison, reach
Quad and AUKUS are different, yet complementary. The other doesn’t do it either. While the Quad initiative spans the Indian and Pacific Oceans, there are advantages to a Pacific-focused orientation for AUKUS. Such a strategy could potentially bolster Japan’s security as well as Taiwan’s security in the face of China’s growing hostility. Shifting AUKUS’s base to the Pacific Ocean may reassure ASEAN countries. This could lead AUKUS to any insidious indications that an increase in the number of nuclear submarines operating in the Indo-Pacific could upset the balance of power in the Indian Ocean.
China’s powerful military capabilities must be taken seriously. China has a large and growing maritime fleet, which includes both nuclear-powered and diesel-electric submarines. China’s naval power is enabling it to challenge US dominance in the Pacific beyond the first island chain. A US that still boasts the world’s most powerful military might be tempted to look for effective means to counter China. The Quad structure currently has neither the mandate nor the capability to achieve this. There are limited options in the economic field as China has already emerged as a global economic superpower. AUKUS, however, provides an opportunity for the US to deploy proxy submarine forces, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, to limit China’s attacks.
Susan R. Chinoy, a former ambassador, is currently the Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis. Views expressed are personal
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