“They should do it. I hope they will,” said the official, who, like others interviewed for this article, asked not to be identified to discuss internal deliberations.
A senior State Department official said US diplomats are pressuring Russia’s regional friends and foes alike to pressure Putin not to go the nuclear route.
“We spoke in many conversations with countries in the Indo-Pacific region – allies, partners, or otherwise – on the importance of speaking out in one voice against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” the official said, adding that without knowing whether the US was leaning on China and India. “It is the responsibility of every country to raise its voice.”
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is scrambling to get the United Nations to act against Russia. US officials said one way could include bypassing the UN Security Council, where Russia has a veto, adopting a resolution that would condemn Moscow’s plan to annex large parts of eastern Ukraine and Will call on Russia to withdraw all its troops.
Officials are considering using a vague provision in the United Nations Charter, a move also used by the governing body in 1950 after the North Korean invasion of South Korea. North Korea’s attack was supported by China and Russia – both members of the Security Council vetoed.
But US officials believe one of the most promising ways to change Putin’s mind is to rely on Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a pair of world leaders who Putin is believed to have significant influence, according to current and former officials. in America and Europe.
China Have not publicly criticized your colleague and has continued its military cooperation with Moscow since the February invasion of Ukraine. Following the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, China became an even bigger market for Russian goods, especially energy supplies.
But it has not signed any major economic agreements with Moscow since the invasion, as expected. And Putin himself signaled growing concerns from Beijing about Russia’s aggression at a meeting of heads of state at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan this month.
“We greatly appreciate the balanced position of our Chinese friends regarding the Ukraine crisis,” Putin said. “We understand your questions and concerns in this regard.”
Xi in particular is seen as a potentially powerful voice to help prevent further escalation of the crisis.
,[Putin] And Xi has this limitless friendship, isn’t it?” said former NATO deputy secretary-general Rose Gottmöller, who has held talks with Putin in recent years, noting the warm ties between the two leaders. Must listen.”
The same goes for Modi, a closer democratic ally of Washington than his Chinese counterpart, who public displeasure On the actions of Putin in Ukraine at the meeting in Uzbekistan.
And last week, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed renewed concern about the situation in Ukraine, setting aside the threat of nuclear weapons.
“The trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is of grave concern to the entire international community,” he said at the United Nations. “The outlook for the future appears to be even more troubling. The nuclear issue is of particular concern.”
“I believe they are sending a deterrent message to Putin as well,” said Gotemöller, a Stanford University professor who has been in close contact with US and foreign diplomats.
“I hope it will be effective,” she said.
The White House and the State Department declined to comment on any attempt to encourage China or India to lean more on Russia.
behind the scenes
Informal talks intensified on Wednesday, as dozens of US, European and Russian arms control experts and former government officials made a private call to bring together a solid international front.
“Many Track II talks are ongoing,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said, referring to non-official talks conducted with the knowledge of the foreign ministries of delegates.
Putin and other top Russian officials Newly released – and increasingly warring – threats In recent days Russia will consider using nuclear weapons if it feels threatened by what it claims is an attempt by the United States and NATO to use Ukraine to attack Russia.
This prompted the Biden administration to warn of “disastrous consequences” should Moscow cross the nuclear threshold.
The White House is cautious about Putin’s nuclear threats, but has seen no evidence that Russia has taken action that indicates it plans to use nuclear weapons, the White House and Defense Department officials have emphasized this week.
US intelligence doesn’t even guess that currency That will change after the announcement of the referendum results on Friday, according to officials.
The US believes Putin knows his war effort is faltering and knows he is facing pressure at home. Signs of chaos and protest triggered by last week’s call-up of military reservists will only add to that – and make it impossible for Putin to obscure the war’s failures from the Russian people.
As a result, there is “universal concern about the unprecedented nature of the nuclear threat we face,” said Kimball, who participated in a private call between Western and Russian nuclear experts on Wednesday. “We’re trying to figure out how we can respond in private and publicly.”
He sees an increasing role for global leaders to “reinforce Biden’s caution against Putin’s flirtation with the use of nuclear weapons,” he said.
“They should emphasize that if Putin breaks the 77-year-old taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, why does everyone lose, especially Russia,” he said.
fairy status
The Biden administration is trying to rally the United Nations to put new diplomatic pressure on Putin by devising ways to get a proposed resolution on Ukraine through the world body while avoiding a Russian veto in the UN Security Council.
“If Russia uses its veto to shield itself from accountability, we will turn to the UN General Assembly to send an unmistakable message to Moscow,” US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said after a briefing on Tuesday. will see.” Ukraine situation.
One possible avenue is known as a “United for Peace” People familiar with the issue said the resolution, used in 1950, could have ended the impasse within the Security Council.
Kimball said he believed a provision for the world body to respond forcefully would also be an option, including taking some collective action to respond to the damage, if Russia resorted to nuclear weapons.
Gottmöller argues one of the strongest barriers to avoiding a detonation in the first place is that even a Russian nuclear attack in Ukraine would erase one of Putin’s primary negotiating points: that the United States would use nuclear weapons in a conflict. The only country to use
Another US official noted the situation in Pariah that came with the use of nuclear weapons.
The person pointed out that “Russia has made nuclear threats throughout the conflict” but has “intermittently stated that they would never use a nuclear weapon.”
The official also said that Putin signed a declaration With the leaders of the United States, Great Britain, France and China in January saying that nuclear war should never be fought and can never be won.
Gottmöller predicted that Russian use of nuclear weapons would isolate the “Global South,” – South Asia, Latin America and Africa – which have had traditional economic and political ties to Moscow.
“The Russians and Putin himself and his circle have been very effective in keeping the Global South on their side and going out and saying, ‘Look at what the Americans are doing and their royal partners like the UK'”, she said.
“I think they will lose the Global South by breaking the nuclear taboo,” she said. “They will be much more isolated than in this crisis. [Putin] We need our customer base in China and India.”
Graham Ellison, a former senior Pentagon official and longtime government adviser on nuclear policy, said a better relationship between Washington and Beijing “will make a big difference” but “even in the absence of that, I think there is an opportunity.”
“If I was working on it,” Allison said. “I will work on that angle as strongly as possible.”
Nahal Tosi, Jonathan Lemire and Andrew Desiderio contributed to this report.