Can the Delhi Ordinance pass the Rajya Sabha test? Congress biggest variable in AAP’s opposition equation

Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal began a tour of West Bengal and Maharashtra this week to seek support from the Trinamool Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray against the Centre’s ordinance on bureaucrats’ jurisdiction at the national level. do. Capital.

The ordinance effectively took away the executive and legislative power of the elected government over the services given to it by a five-judge constitution bench after an eight-year-long battle with the Centre.

AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha will visit both West Bengal and Maharashtra along with the Delhi Chief Minister. AAP sources said the party plans to visit all non-BJP ruled states and Kejriwal will personally contact all leaders of the opposition camp.

Kejrival The former BJP ally and JD(U) has already met Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav, who have come out in open support of the AAP government. The Left parties have also announced a demonstration on May 24 demanding the withdrawal of the ordinance.

However, Kejriwal’s meetings with opposition leaders could be about much more than just rallying support for the May 19 protest. Ordinance,

“He (Nitish Kumar) is engaged in uniting all the opposition leaders. I have requested them that if all opposition parties and non-BJP parties come together, and if they (central government) bring this ordinance in Rajya Sabha in the form of a bill, we can defeat it. And if this bill is defeated in the Rajya Sabha, then in a way it will be the semi-final of 2024 (Lok Sabha elections). If this bill is defeated, a message will go across the country that BJP is losing 2024,” Kejriwal had said after meeting Nitish Kumar.

After the still-born meeting of the G8 or Group of 8, to which Kejriwal invited seven non-BJP chief ministers, the Delhi CM sees the current crisis as an opportunity to reconnect with all non-BJP leaders and delude himself. Trying to convert. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren, Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin, Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan and Bihar CM Nitish among the ‘G8’ chief ministers who called the initial meeting on the party national platform. Kumar is.

The AAP has said the ordinance is an “experiment” by the central government to allegedly usurp power in other opposition-ruled states.

‘The way an attempt has been made to paralyze the Delhi government by bringing an ordinance, it is being used as ‘one’.Prayogshala‘ (the laboratory). In the coming days as the situation can be seen, they can bring an ordinance for the whole country and implement it.dictatorship‘ (dictatorship)’, said AAP’s Delhi state convenor Gopal Rai.

“With several opposition parties alleging that the central government has misused investigative agencies like the CBI and ED to settle political scores, 14 of them have petitioned the Supreme Court on the alleged misuse of the central probe and sought directions for the future but has failed.”

But defeating such a bill, if and when it is introduced in the Rajya Sabha, will prove to be an uphill task for the opposition, which has never been able to defeat contentious bills like the dilution of Article 370 or the Citizenship Amendment Act. is also not united.

The irony is that AAP had supported the BJP over the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, which former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah reminded the party of.

Besides, AAP has 10 MPs in the Rajya Sabha and will need to woo its arch-rival Congress, which has 31 MPs. Without Congress, it is difficult to predict how other opposition parties will ultimately take sides. Currently, the opposition in the Rajya Sabha is ranked according to the following MP count:

  • TMC – 12 MPs
  • DMK – 10 MPs
  • TRS – 7 MPs
  • RJD – ​​6 MPs
  • CPI(M) – 5 MPs
  • JD(U) – 5 MPs
  • TDP – 1 MP
  • NCP – 4 MPs
  • Samajwadi Party – 3 MPs
  • Shiv Sena – Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray – 3 MPs
  • CPI – 2 MPs
  • JMM – 2 MPs

Other smaller parties like AGP, IUML, JD(S), Kerala Congress, Marumalarchi DMK, RLD, Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) and TDP have one MP each in the state. Without Congress, these add up to 77. With Congress, the tally becomes 108.

Nitish Kumar had recently met Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, senior leader Rahul Gandhi and General Secretary KC Venugopal to garner support against the ordinance. While early indications suggested that the Congress would support the AAP, Venugopal dismissed all speculations.

“The Congress party has not taken any decision on the issue of the ordinance brought against the Supreme Court judgment on the powers of the Government of NCT of Delhi with regard to appointment of officers. It will consult its state units and other like-minded parties,” he tweeted. It was retweeted by former Delhi Congress President Ajay Maken.

The BJP-led NDA has a substantial majority in the Lok Sabha with 329 MPs, but the saffron party has 93 MPs in the 238-member Rajya Sabha. Assuming that all members will be present and vote, the BJP needs to cross 119.

Even though many of its allies have left the NDA, BJP can still hope to cross the finish line with the support of AIADMK (4 MPs), five nominated members and parties like BJD (9), YSRCP (9), BSP. (1), Independents and others (3) and smaller parties like Mizo National Front, National People’s Party, Pattali Makkal Katchi, RPI (Athawale), Sikkim Democratic Front, United People’s Party (Liberal) with one member each.

There is also a strong possibility of a walkout of the opposition camp. An AAP leader, on the condition of anonymity, told News18, “The aim is to defeat the ordinance, but only after talks with various leaders will we be in a position to understand the situation better.”