With the re-increasing of Covid cases, China’s economy is once again headed for a downtrend. Three years of quarantine and strict restrictions have already done a lot of damage to the very roots of the entire economy. In the last one year, with the partial easing of Covid restrictions, industries were back on track but again faced a major setback.
what did the traders say
Li Meng, a restaurant owner, and his wife are looking forward to the resumption of business after China rolled back severe anti-virus controls. As sales slowly revive, they face a new challenge: Diners wary about a wave of infections sweeping the country. Only three of their 20 tables were full on Wednesday night at 8 pm.
“Many are still watching because they are afraid of getting infected,” Li said. “Dining out may be closed for now.”
The ruling Communist Party began lifting tests, quarantines and other restrictions in November as it tries to stave off a deep economic downturn.
The “Zero COVID” strategy confined millions of families to their homes for weeks at a time, shut down most travel in and out of China, and emptied bustling streets in major cities. It kept its infection rate low but crushed economic growth and fueled protests.
“People are going back to work, and I’ve seen children in the mall,” said Yang Mingyu, a 28-year-old Beijing resident. “Everything is back to normal. It’s really soothing.
The ruling party is moving to join the United States and other governments in trying to live with the disease rather than eliminate transmission.
It has launched a drive to vaccinate elderly people, which experts say is essential to contain the public health crisis.
Members of the public expressed unease about the wave of infections but welcomed the change in strategy.
“I’m definitely a little worried, but in order to live, you have to be able to function normally, right?” said Yu Hongzhu, 40, a supermarket manager.
“Since the government has given permission to open, it means it’s not so terrible, right?” Yu said.
“If the virus were highly contagious and everyone’s life was in danger, the government would not let go.”
On Tuesday, the government announced it would ease restrictions on travel out of China and resume issuing passports for tourist travel for the first time in nearly three years. It sets up a potential flood of Chinese travelers going abroad at a time when other governments are worried about a rise in infections.
The United States, Japan and other governments have announced virus testing requirements for travelers arriving from China. They cite a lack of information about the spread of the virus from Beijing and possible mutations in new forms.
“The development of the epidemic is relatively rapid,” Wu Junyao, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told a news conference on Thursday. “The influx of people and the threat of respiratory infectious diseases in winter could further complicate the epidemic situation.”
The ruling party faces mounting pressure to get consumers out of their homes and spend as global demand for Chinese exports weakens as the Federal Reserve and European central banks try to calm economic activity and reduce rising inflation. Used to be.
China’s retail sales fell 5.9% in November from a year earlier. Imports declined by 10.9% in a sign of declining Chinese domestic demand.
Exports fell 9% in November compared to a year earlier. Forecasters say China’s economy is likely to contract in the final quarter of the year. They have cut the outlook for annual growth to less than 3%, which will be weaker than any year in decades except for 2020.
The American Chamber of Commerce in China says more than 70% of companies that responded to a survey this month “were confident China would recover from the current COVID outbreak in early 2023, followed by inbound and outbound business travel and tourism.” Will allow to resume.”
ING economist Iris Pang wrote in a report that a slowdown in exports would make it difficult to recover from the lockdown. “The timing is not right,” she wrote.
Li, who runs the restaurant, said he and his wife moved to Beijing a decade ago to open a restaurant focused on cuisine from Yunnan province in the southwest.
He invested his savings and mortgaged his house to open two more outlets in 2019, just before the pandemic.
“Our priority now is survival,” Li said. He said it could take up to three months for sales to return to normal, less than half of pre-pandemic levels.
Xi Runfei, a waiter at a different restaurant, said anti-virus regulations had prevented her from visiting her hometown in neighboring Hebei province in the previous year/s, and when she was allowed to travel, the time-consuming quarantine was needed.
“Now, it’s different,” said Shi, 35. “Of course, there are still risks, but we just need to take self-protection measures.”
(with AP input)