China’s Iran-Saudi deal is a danger bell for India

Its economic ties there include its role as a major market for the region’s hydrocarbons, its use of the US dollar as the principal currency of international exchange, and its supply of investments and technologies. Its role as a security guarantor has been equally important, even though its military interventions have often done more harm to itself and the region.

It is American centrality that Beijing is trying to challenge, and while it is not going to be easy, China under President Xi Jinping is clearly not going to stop trying. This is evident from a series of recently released Chinese foreign policy documents on China’s global development and security initiatives.

The complex geopolitical reality of the West Asian region must also be taken into account when drawing conclusions about the importance of the Chinese role in the latest diplomatic breakthrough.

America’s checkered past in the region shows that despite its overwhelming diplomatic, economic and military power, it has not always been in control of outcomes. While Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel are large local powers, Egypt and Iraq are also influential actors, with smaller players such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also growing in stature and influence over time.

The equations between these powers have changed frequently over the past decades. For example, today’s extreme hostility between Iran and Israel was preceded by a period of friendship between Israel and pre-revolutionary Iran. With the US-sponsored Abraham Accords, many Arab countries now appear willing to sidestep the Palestinian issue in favor of closer ties with Israel – acknowledging its military superiority and perhaps hoping to share in its technological prowess . in Saudi Arabia, Religion also seems to be taking a back seat For plain nationalism.

It may appear that Beijing has pulled a rabbit out of the Iran-Saudi deal, but let us not forget that both countries wanted the deal badly, and the tripartite joint statement about it actually has no There is no clear roadmap. what comes next.

The Saudis were careful not to talk about sovereignty in terms of territorial issues – Iran and Saudi Arabia have no territorial disputes, but the UAE, a close Saudi ally, has an ongoing maritime territorial dispute with the Iranians. But a joint Gulf Cooperation Council-China statement at the end of Xi’s visit to Riyadh in December 2022 affirmed the UAE’s territorial sovereignty over the disputed features. The same statement also contained a call for Iran to “ensure the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program” and Cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, As a result, Iran had a great deal of resentment with the Chinese.

China may have decided it was more important to show its credentials to the Arabs – whom it wants to alienate the Americans – than it was to persuade the Iranians. The latter are in less position to bargain with the Chinese, given that the only major power they have to fall back on is Russia, which is otherwise occupied. China is also Iran’s largest trading partner At a time when it is severely affected by Western economic sanctions.

Meanwhile, an Iran-Saudi rapprochement in general and “affirmation of respect for the sovereignty of the states” in particular would certainly put Israel geopolitically in a spot. In December, Israel’s defense minister called on graduating Air Force officers in a speech to be Ready to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities ‘In two or three years’ – essentially a declaration of a lack of consideration for Iranian sovereignty.

The Iran-Saudi deal is undoubtedly a response to the increasingly right-wing turn in Israeli politics under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US seems to be either unwilling or unable to moderate. Significantly, the America is also trying to mediate the peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel but that the Saudis are also troubled by the declining US attention to their interests.

Implications for India

For India, the deal is not a bad thing in itself if it brings greater regional stability, and may well open up other opportunities for engagement with the two West Asian states where India may not want to offend either side. No need to worry about doing. There may be some complications to India’s close ties with Israel, given that country’s domestic politics and views on Iran, but there is no reason why New Delhi should, like the United Arab Emirates, try to balance ties and engage in all three. Most of the I2U2 should not be able to quadrature. countries and the US

That said, the Iran-Saudi deal shines an uncomfortable light on India’s lack of influence in the region. Given its proximity and cultural ties, apart from economic and political ones, New Delhi should have played a role in bringing the two traditional enemies together. Instead, China’s role in swinging the deal shows that its influence is far beyond India’s. The fact that the Indian Ministry of External Affairs waited for days for its regular media briefing deal response – With Barrang saying “India has always advocated dialogue and diplomacy as a way to resolve differences” – suggests some degree of surprise and unease at the Chinese role. If India were to completely ignore the Chinese role, it could very well have reacted immediately, as the americans did,

In the meantime, there is the matter of whether the deal will stick – and, if it does, how significant or immediate its impact will be. Major deals in this area have collapsed under the weight of contradictions or the whims of stakeholders – think of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which was scrapped in 2018 by the Donald Trump administration.

American their suspicions remain About the honesty of Iran. For Syria, Arabs and Iranians are uniting on the belief that the Bashar al-Assad regime needs to be contained, while for the Saudis the primary concern will be ending the conflict along their borders with the Houthis in Yemen. How quickly the latter’s Iranian backers persuade him to strike a deal with the Saudis remains to be seen.

For now, though, the deal is a propaganda coup for China, a reminder to Americans not to take its influence lightly, and hopefully it will remind India too that historical ties and photo ops need to change A lot of work has to be done. Actual impact on the ground.