The only thing India can do during this year’s global food crisis is not to make it worse for its own poor. As costs of basic nutrition ballooning everywhere, the second most populous country’s best bet is to fall back on a comprehensive system of state procurement and public distribution to soften the blow.
But, in mid-April, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi Promised US President Joe Biden that India can feed the world. Recalling the conversation, Modi said that if the WTO allowed it, “India is ready to supply food stocks to the world from tomorrow.”
Modi’s ministers and advisers should have known better. As Indian leaders spoke to Biden, the North Indian wheat crop was scorching by the scorching heat. The Ukraine war and the resulting food shortage may have given India an opportunity to play its part in international trade, but climate change and the chapati crisis should have been reasons to stifle enthusiasm.
Eventually it had to do just that: In mid-May, India hastily banned wheat exports to ensure its food security. It was a repetition of the Covid-19 fiasco when Modi bragged about how India, the pharmacy of the world, would save humanity. But a side effect of the Delta version forced it to back down. As of March 31, India’s share in the global vaccine trade was just 2.3%. Just like the pandemic, the wave of New Delhi’s wheat flip-floppers was being felt internationally. A group of seven countries criticized the ban. “If everyone starts exporting restrictions or closing markets, it will only make the crisis worse,” German Agriculture Minister Kem Ozdemir said.
In fact, the opposite may be true. From Indonesia’s ban on palm-oil shipments to Malaysia’s ban on chicken exports, nearly 30 countries have resorted to such measures. Had India not closed its markets, the country could have faced a shortage of chapatis – India’s ubiquitous, unleavened daily bread. People, rich or poor, do not consume wheat; They buy flour for making chapatis. And this year, there are probably 6.5% fewer chapatis for the same crop as the previous crop, while wheat production will see its first decline in seven years.
In short, the problem is this: Last year, about 770 grams of flour was found in one kilo of Indian wheat. This year it may come down to 720 grams. Cereal production has stalled in the hottest March in 122 years. In fact, traders are buying wheat that is below their normal flour-yield cut-off level – which would be below 76 on the one hectare test. According to industry sources, now a poor reading of 72 is acceptable due to shortage of good wheat.
The unusually early heat wave that engulfed India and Pakistan may be to blame, according to scientists at the World Weather Attribution Initiative, a season that is at least 30 times more likely to be triggered by human-caused climate change. India’s harvest will be lucky to exceed 100 million tonnes this year. , a steep drop from the initial government estimate of a record 111 million tonnes crop.
Taking 15 million metric tons of this total to be exported to the world – as claimed by the government – was more than a small shortsightedness. For one, the Food Corporation of India, the state-buying agency, has neglected to fill its godowns. Last year it bought 43 million metric tonnes for its reserves. This year’s target has been slashed to less than half. If the Modi administration expands the free food grains program launched during the pandemic, they will go into public distribution, procuring 19.5 million tonnes, as well as the 30 million tonnes currently in FCI’s storage. Nothing will be left in the wheat pool of the state to curb any kind of betting in the domestic open market.
The government is not without tools. If prices skyrocket, New Delhi may impose stock limits to force traders to give up their hoarders. FCI can also offload more rice than wheat into the subsidized public distribution system. Most Indian diets nowadays can accommodate both. This could free up about 10 million tonnes of wheat to accommodate government-to-government supply deals with Egypt.
Still, these are stopgap solutions. The basis of Modi’s failed agri-reform law was to give farmers more freedom to find a free market price for their produce. Wheat face to face shows that when it comes to India’s agriculture, the primacy of markets remains a pipe dream. A limit on sugar exports also comes to the fore. Unlike wheat, where India is a minor player in global trade, the country is No. 2 in sugar shipments, followed by Brazil. This in itself is a hoax because the sweet water of hibiscus – and by selling it overseas, India exports its prized rain.
It may reduce the current wheat shortage, as Lithuania has proposed, a protective corridor for grain shipments from Ukraine ends the Russian blockade of the Black Sea. With this, the pressure of filling the stomach of 1.4 billion people of India can also end. But the long-term threat of climate change will not go away. As global temperatures rise by 2°C or more from pre-industrial levels, the country’s chapati challenge is becoming more urgent.
This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed. Only the title has been changed.