Climate change is expected to increasingly push species over the tipping threshold, when their geographic ranges are exposed to unanticipated temperatures, according to a new study led by a UCL researcher. The study, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, predicts when and where climate change will expose species to potentially lethal temperatures around the world.
Researchers from UCL, the University of Cape Town, the University of Connecticut and the University at Buffalo examined data from more than 35,000 species of animals and seagrasses (including mammals, amphibians, reptiles, birds, corals, fish, cephalopods and plankton). from every continent and ocean basin, as well as climate projections out to 2100.
The researchers examined when areas within each species’ geographic range would cross the threshold of thermal risk, which is defined as five consecutive years where temperatures exceeded the maximum in its geographic range in recent history (1850–2014). is consistently higher than the most extreme monthly temperature experienced by a species. ,
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Once the thermal exposure threshold is exceeded, the animal does not necessarily die, but there is no evidence that it is able to survive in higher temperatures – that is, research projects that sudden loss for many species. Maybe due to future climate change housing.
The researchers found a consistent trend that for many animals, thermal exposure limits for most of their geographic range would be exceeded within a single decade.
Lead author Dr Alex Pigott (UCL Center for Biodiversity and Environment Research, UCL Biosciences) said: “It is unlikely that climate change will gradually make the environment more difficult for animals to survive. Instead, many animals For, large herds across their geographic range are likely to become unrecognizably warm in a short period of time.
“While some animals may be able to survive these high temperatures, many other animals would need to move to colder regions or evolve to adapt, which they cannot do in such a short time frame. Our findings suggest that once we begin to notice that a species is suffering in unfamiliar conditions, it may be very little time before most of its range becomes obsolete, so it is vital that we recognize in advance who may be in the coming decades. C species may be endangered.”
The researchers found that the extent of global warming makes a big difference: If the planet warms by 1.5 degrees Celsius, 15 percent of the species they studied would live in at least 30 percent of their current geographic range in an unrecognized warmer climate. Will take the risk of experiencing the temperature. a decade, but this doubles to 30 per cent of species at 2.5°C of warming.
Pigott said: “Our study is yet another example of why we urgently need to reduce carbon emissions to reduce the harmful effects of climate change on animals and plants, and to avoid a mass extinction crisis. ”
The researchers hope that their study can help target conservation efforts, as their data provides an early warning system that shows when and where particular animals are likely to be at risk. Co-author Dr Christopher Trisos (African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town) said: “In the past we’ve had snapshots to show the effects of climate change, but here we’re presenting the data like a movie, where You can watch the changes unfold over time.
This suggests that the risk to many species is somewhat similar to that of everything, everywhere, all at once. By animating this process, we hope to help direct conservation efforts before it is too late, as well as show the potentially catastrophic consequences of continuing climate change unchecked.”
The researchers say this pattern of sudden exposure may be an essential feature of living on a round planet – because of Earth’s size, the atmosphere around the hot end has more area available to species than they are used to, such as As in lowlands or near the equator.