NS Himachal Pradesh by-election results The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has loosened its grip on the situation, with its own story to tell, which goes against the belief that the ruling bloc has an advantage to capitalize on. The state went to polls on October 30 for Arki, Kotkhai and Fatehpur assembly seats and Mandi Lok Sabha seat. The results have shook the BJP.
Though the BJP was expected to remain under the influence in Mandi and Arki seats, elections in Fatehpur and Kotkhai weakened its prospects. However, the Congress’ victory in all the four seats went against the expectations of the people. Even more shocking was the fact that the Congress had increased its vote share to 48.9% in the three assembly seats, while the BJP had 28.1%. Pratibha Singh, wife of former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, won Mandi by a margin of 8,766 votes over BJP’s Brigadier Khushal Thakur. INC’s Rohit Thakur defeated Independent Chetan Bragta by 6,293 votes, Bhawani Singh defeated BJP’s Baldev Thakur by 5,634 votes and Sanjay Awasthi defeated BJP’s Ratan Pal by 3,277 votes.
It has been characteristic of the state for decades that after the completion of three to four years of a certain government, an anti-incumbency factor comes to the fore and a formal change takes place. Factors such as anti-incumbency mood, failure to deliver on promises, ineffective leadership and economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic were instrumental in the current growth. Rising oil prices and consequent inflation acted as the final nail in the coffin of the BJP. Furthermore, the loss of veterans significantly affected the results, although the controversial allocation of tickets by both the BJP and the Congress also worked unfavorably for both.
The BJP paid for the poor allocation of tickets to controversial candidates. In Kotkhai it fielded Neelam Saraik against Mr. Bragata, son of former minister Narinder Bragata; In Fatehpur Mr Baldev against former candidate Kripal Parmar and in Arki Mr Pal against two time winner Govind Sharma. This did not go down well with the party workers and it led to infighting. Congress also refused ticket to Rajendra Kumar in Arki, a staunch follower of Virbhadra. The BJP was also harsh on rebels working against the party, as the official candidate could garner only 3,000 votes in Kotkhai. The triangular contest due to inter-party factionalism, which saw cross-party transfer of votes, seriously damaged the BJP’s position in the elections. Although in Arki, the Congress also saw a rebel in Mr. Kumar, Mr. Awasthi’s victory indicated the presence of an anti-incumbency mood.
The result is also a warning to the central leadership since BJP national president JP Nadda and Union minister Anurag Thakur arrived from the state. The active presence of both during the campaign also suffered a setback and this year, like Uttarakhand, there may be a leadership reshuffle in the state. The real blow came from Mandi seat, the house of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. This must have been an unbearable moment for Mr Thakur as before the elections, there were voices in the air about Himachal repeating Uttarakhand.
These elections are before the assembly elections to be held in 2022. It shows the exam timings for the current Govt. According to several pre-poll surveys, rising prices have been at the root of these losses. Unemployment and ineffective leadership also reversed the government’s achievements of achieving 100% (first dose) vaccination during the pandemic. In between is the puzzle of politics, the game of aspirations and inter-constituency dynamics that certainly influence such elections.
Harish K Thakur is Professor and Chairperson, Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla.
.