COVAX distribution target cut by 25% due to supply constraints

According to the latest supply forecast released on Wednesday, COVAX is expected to reach 1.425 billion doses of the vaccine in 2021 in the most unlikely scenario and in the absence of immediate action by producers and high-coverage countries to prioritize COVAX. About 1.2 billion of these supplements will be available to low-income countries participating in the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC).

Export restrictions and uncertainty around the resumption of exports from SII, a major COVAX supplier, and increased challenges at manufacturing sites supplying COVAX, are the major reasons for the reduction in the number of doses COVAX will receive in 2021, it said.

Another reason for the reduction in expected dosage is the timing and likelihood of filing and regulatory approvals for candidates produced by Novavax, SII-Novavax and Clover, for which approval by the WHO Emergency Use List (EUL) or a stringent regulatory authority (SRA). Necessary. Supply to COVAX participants, COVAX further said.

It said these issues particularly impact the supply of Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccine, which is being manufactured in India by SII under the brand name Covishield.

There are 11 vaccines in the COVAX portfolio, including Covishield. “The evolving supply scenario has reduced the estimated quantity available for supply through COVAX by 25% in 2021. For SII-AstraZeneca and SII-Novavax, supplies are further delayed due to ongoing export restrictions from India, with no SII supply to COVAX expected in 2021, as per the most likely scenario, between 2021 and 2022. According to the joint COVAX statement on supply forecast at the beginning. .

The Indian government has clarified time and again that it has not banned the export of COVID-19 vaccines, but has calibrated the shipments keeping in mind the domestic requirements.

India has not imposed any export restrictions on Covid-19 vaccines, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said during a media interaction in April.

“So far, we have supplied vaccines to more than 80 countries around the world. We have already said that our outward supplies will be made keeping in mind our domestic needs.”

A query sent to the Ministry of Commerce did not elicit any response till press time. SII did not comment on the issue.

COVAX’s forecast further stated that by the end of August, 330 million doses had been issued for delivery, of which 230 were distributed to 139 participating economies.

“According to the most likely scenario in our supply forecast, 1.1 billion more doses are expected to be available for delivery between the end of September and 2021,” the statement added.

“This is about 1.4 billion doses available for 2021. Of these, approximately 1.2 billion will be available to AMC participants. This is equivalent to 20% of the population coverage or 40% of the adult population in all 92 AMC economies except India.”

COVAX supplies will continue to expand in the first quarter of 2022, reaching a total of 2.6 billion doses available for supply by the end of March.

“Yet the global picture of access to COVID-19 vaccines is unacceptable. Only 20% of people in low- and low-middle income countries have received their first dose of vaccine, compared to 80% in high- and upper-middle income countries.

COVAX, the vaccine pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tool Accelerator, is co-organized by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the World Health Organization, working in partnership with UNICEF, vaccine manufacturers in developed and developing countries Has been doing. and the World Bank, among others.