The 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections saw a bipolar contest in most seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party benefited the most from such contests.
The 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections saw a bipolar contest in most seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party benefited the most from such contests.
in 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, the majority of seats saw bipolar competition, meaning that only two parties were effectively contesting the elections. This signaled a reversal of a trend in the state where most seats saw a triangular contest in 2017 and the elections before that saw a multi-cornered fight. en general, Bharatiya Janata Party Bipolar contests benefit the most, while the Samajwadi Party has an edge in non-bipolar seats. An analysis of the vote shares secured by parties in a constituency using the Laxo and Taagepera method* tells us how many parties were effectively in the running to win that seat. In the 2022 elections, a bipolar contest was seen in over 70% of seats, compared to just 7.4% in 2002. This trend was observed in all regions except Bundelkhand and East. The Bahujan Samaj Party achieved its highest vote share in these two regions, effectively emerging as the third player.
bipolar twist
The table is uncompetitive since 2002 (<1 प्रभावी पार्टी), द्विध्रुवी (2), त्रिकोणीय (3), खंडित (4), और बहुदलीय (>=5) lists the share of seats involved in the competitions. In 2002, most seats (37%) saw a triangular contest. As of 2017, the political landscape of UP, on the whole, remained a triangular or multi-party contest. But in 2022, over 70% of seats saw a bipartisan contest, with four parties losing their seat share to a little over 1%.
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territorial division
The table shows the effective number of parties in a seat, region-wise, in the 2022 UP Assembly elections. Except for Bundelkhand and East, large-scale bipolar competition was observed in all regions. Bundelkhand and East are the two regions where the BSP secured its highest vote share in 2022, making the contest triangular.
BJP’s lead in Bipolar seats
The table lists the BJP’s strike rate (wins/seats contested) in non-competitive, bipolar, triangular, fragmented and multi-party competitions. The strike rate of the BJP has been the highest in the bipolar contest since 2017. Even in 2022, the party dominated seats where two parties were effectively in the fray as it had secured 71 per cent of such seats.
SP’s lead in non-bipolar seats
The table lists the strike rates of the Samajwadi Party in non-competitive, bipolar, triangular, fragmented and multi-party competitions. Since 2017, the SP has performed better on locked seats in fragmented and multi-party contests. Even in 2022, the party successfully captured 50% of the seats, where four parties were effectively in competition.
BSP’s lead in multi-party seats
The table lists the BSP’s strike rates in non-competitive, bipolar, triangular, fragmented and multi-party competitions. Like the SP, the BSP had a higher strike rate on seats with a triangular/multi-party contest. This trend was more pronounced when it came to power in 2007.
Source: Lok Dhaba, Ashoka University
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